基于对流可分辨集合预报的阜宁龙卷概率预报研究

本文针对2016年6月23日江苏阜宁龙卷,设计了两组对流可分辨尺度集合预报:一组以ERA5再分析资料为初始和侧边界(CEFS_ERA5);另一组以NCEP GEFS为初始和侧边界(CEFS_GEFS),评估了两组试验对此次龙卷的预报能力。结果显示:两组对流尺度集合预报均有约半数以上成员能够再现龙卷超级单体的特征;2~5 km上升螺旋度(UH25)对本次龙卷超级单体有较好的预报指示意义。在上述分析的基础上,考虑位置预报偏差,提出了一种基于UH25的邻域龙卷概率预报产品,分析了龙卷概率预报技巧对关键参数邻域半径和UH25阈值的敏感性,CEFS_ERA5邻域半径取15个格点,UH25阈值取250 m²·s^-2最优;而CEFS_GEFS邻域半径取15个格点,UH25阈值取100 m²·s^-2最优。总的来说,邻域概率预报产品显著提升了对此次龙卷概率预报水平。     

Effect of spatial variability of cross‐correlated soil properties on bearing capacity of strip footing

Geotechnical engineering problems are characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of these sources are connected to the uncertainties of soil properties involved in the analysis. In this paper, a numerical procedure for a probabilistic analysis that considers the spatial variability of cross‐correlated soil properties is presented and applied to study the bearing capacity of spatially random soil with different autocorrelation distances in the vertical and horizontal directions. The approach integrates a commercial finite difference method and random field theory into the framework of a probabilistic analysis. Two‐dimensional cross‐correlated non‐Gaussian random fields are generated based on a Karhunen–Loève expansion in a manner consistent with a specified marginal distribution function, an autocorrelation function, and cross‐correlation coefficients. A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses was performed to study the effects of uncertainty due to the spatial heterogeneity on the bearing capacity of a rough strip footing. The simulations provide insight into the application of uncertainty treatment to geotechnical problems and show the importance of the spatial variability of soil properties with regard to the outcome of a probabilistic assessment. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

贵州织金地区稀土磷块岩矿床中稀土元素赋存状态

以稀土磷块岩矿床为研究对象,采用电感耦合等离子体光谱法和质谱法研究了3个代表性样品的基本化学组成,分析了40多个元素的含量,确定了矿物质量分数和赋存状态,研究了稀土元素在其中的分布特征。结果表明,97%以上的稀土元素呈类质同象状态部分置换磷灰石晶格中的Ca2 存在,只有小于3%的稀土元素呈被粘土质等吸附状态或离子交换(吸附)状态存在。     

Probabilistic aspects of micropaleontologic assemblage zones

A micropaleontologic assemblage zone is defined by occurrence of some characteristic species among many coeval species. When number of assemblage-defining species and total number of species observed are designated as Aand N,respectively, the ratio, A/N,is strongly dependent on duration of the assemblage. Theoretical consideration on the basis of a micropaleontologic cohort model shows that, when origination rate and extinction rate of species are obtained, the most reasonable ratio (A/N) and duration of the assemblage can be determined. The probabilistic model described in this paper provides a theoretical relation between the ratio and the duration. Inaccuracy in correlating micropaleontologic data to certain assemblage zones established can not be avoided because of many natural sorting and artificial biases. Ambiguity arising when data with a small number of characteristic species are correlated with a certain assemblage is numerically estimated.     

德州市城区沙河街组热储地热地质特征研究

通过该井地热钻探及区内已有石油钻探研究资料,对德州市城区古近纪沙河街组地热资源的地质背景、地热地质特征等进行了综合分析研究,认为沙河街组地热资源属于层控型低温地热田,在沧东断裂以东都有分布,热储层厚度超过120m,地热水中碘、锶、铁、偏硅酸达命名浓度,具有一定的开发利用价值。     

西藏盐湖沉积物：一种潜在的铷、铯资源

铷、铯是我国战略性关键矿产资源。西藏盐湖卤水中赋存着丰富的铷、铯资源,但是品位普遍低于10 mg/L。根据热泉与盐湖锂、铷、铯等元素的补给关系和含量差异特征及铷、铯极易被黏土矿物吸附等特点,推测盐湖沉积物中赋存一定规模的铷、铯资源。为验证该推测,本文选取西藏拉果错、聂尔错、依布茶卡、当穹错、扎布耶茶卡等5个典型盐湖,采集卤水和沉积物样品各5件,开展水体中铷、铯含量和沉积物矿物成分分析,结合沉积物分相淋滤实验,得出如下结论：西藏拉果错、当穹错、聂尔错盐湖卤水铷、铯含量和资源量与其补给量差异显著,大量的铷、铯资源消耗于盐湖沉积物中;盐湖沉积物中的铷、铯含量远高于卤水。铷、铯在沉积物水溶相、碳酸盐相中含量较低,主要以吸附形式赋存于黏土矿物(主要为伊利石),吸附点位包括基面位置、难解吸的磨损边缘及层间位置。盐湖沉积物铷、铯资源量远超大型矿床规模,黏土矿物中铷、铯含量高达100 n×10-6,超过固体盐类矿产综合评价指标,相较于现有盐湖钾产品中的铷资源、含铯硅华中的铯资源开发,具有较好的开发利用性,是一种潜在的铷、铯资源。本研究成果有助于完善盐湖铷、铯富集成矿机制,并为高效开发盐湖中的铷、铯资源提供理论支撑。     

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.     

黄淮地区夏季日降水分区概率预报方法研究

利用我国黄淮地区1961—2010年50年6—8月的日降水资料,采用REOF和t检验的方法,将中国黄淮地区夏季降水分成Ⅰ—Ⅴ区。5个区域进行差异性t检验表明5个区域之间（彼此）差异显著,说明了区域划分的正确性。在此基础上利用1999—2007年6—8月站点日降水资料以及CFSv2模式后预报的日降水资料建立了5个区域内共5个代表站点的夏季日降水概率预报方程,并进行了确定性、概率性预报检验和业务试用检验。对各区域内5个代表站日降水量的确定性预报检验表明：Logistic回归降水概率预报方程的TS评分要高于CFSv2模式预报和T213的集合预报平均,空报率也低于CFSv2模式预报和T213集合预报平均,但是漏报率却略高。各区域代表站日降水量的概率预报Brier评分检验表明：Brier评分均不超过0.2,大大低于T213集合预报所得概率预报的Brier评分分值,说明本文Logistic回归方程的概率预报较为可靠。Brier技巧评分表明：Logistic回归降水概率预报方程各站的BSS技巧评分都大于0.0,说明各站的预报技巧高于检验样本气候概率的预报技巧,且高于T213集合预报的Brier技巧评分,说明在分区基础上建立Logistic回归降水概率预报方程的方法是有预报意义的。     

暴雨山洪灾害预警方法研究进展

暴雨山洪灾害预警是中小流域山洪灾害防控体系的薄弱环节,也是决定山洪灾害防控成败的关键。论文围绕山洪灾害预警的核心问题,从中国山洪灾害区域差异特征、山洪灾害预警技术方法、山洪灾害概率预警现状3个方面进行了综述。中国山洪灾害分布存在明显的时空差异,因此有必要根据山洪灾害的区域差异发展有针对性的预警方法。以临界雨量为指标的雨量预警是目前中国中小流域暴雨山洪灾害预警的主要技术手段,但常规方法仅给出一个(组)确定的临界雨量阈值,导致预警结果存在突出的不确定性问题。概率预警可以定量评估诸多不确定性,给出山洪灾害概率预警结果,因此具备很好的理论优势与潜在应用价值。论文展望了山洪灾害概率预警未来的研究重点与方向：(1)充分挖掘暴雨洪水样本信息,开展山洪灾害概率预警基础方法与技术集成研究;(2)加强非平稳性条件下的临界雨量阈值估算与山洪灾害概率预警研究;(3)综合考虑预警阈值发生概率及其致灾概率,优化“多级预警、多级响应”技术方法,推进山洪灾害综合预警业务系统建设与应用。     

Mineral occurrence for Dachang gold deposit and its impact on gold recovery rate in Qumarleb County,Qinghai

Based on X-ray diffraction, optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy analysis of the Dachang gold ore, it is showed that the sulfide of ore is the main carrier minerals of gold. A majority of gold is embedded in pyrite and tetrahedrite as the form of inclusion and a small amount intergrowth with pyrite and gangue mineral, occasionally the presence is in form of monomer natural gold. The main factors which influence the recovery rate are sulfide mineral particle size, and the fine grained sulfide is beneficial for the dissociation and flotation of gold bearing minerals. The monomer dissociation degree of gold bearing minerals can reach 91.3% , when the grinding fineness is less than 0. 074 mm and grain level accounts as 80%. It is not conducive to the flotation of sulfide if the grinding fineness is low or high. It is difficult to completely dissociate the monomer if there is a small amount of pyrite and arsenopyrite in the ore. Therefore, before leaching the gold, it must conduct pretreatment to reach the ideal recovery rate of the gold, like roasting oxidation, pressure oxidation and biological oxidation. The fine microscopic gold has little influence on the gold recovery rate.