Geophysical flows under location uncertainty,Part II Quasi-geostrophy and efficient ensemble spreading

Models under location uncertainty are derived assuming that a component of the velocity is uncorrelated in time. The material derivative is accordingly modified to include an advection correction, inhomogeneous and anisotropic diffusion terms and a multiplicative noise contribution. In this paper, simplified geophysical dynamics are derived from a Boussinesq model under location uncertainty. Invoking usual scaling approximations and a moderate influence of the subgrid terms, stochastic formulations are obtained for the stratified Quasi-Geostrophy and the Surface Quasi-Geostrophy models. Based on numerical simulations, benefits of the proposed stochastic formalism are demonstrated. A single realization of models under location uncertainty can restore small-scale structures. An ensemble of realizations further helps to assess model error prediction and outperforms perturbed deterministic models by one order of magnitude. Such a high uncertainty quantification skill is of primary interests for assimilation ensemble methods. MATLAB^® code examples are available online.     

Bayesian probabilistic damage detection of a reinforced‐concrete bridge column

A Bayesian probabilistic approach for damage detection has been proposed for the continuous monitoring of civil structures (Sohn H, Law KH. Bayesian probabilistic approach for structure damage detection. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics 1997; 26 :1259–1281). This paper describes the application of the Bayesian approach to predict the location of plastic hinge deformation using the experimental data obtained from the vibration tests of a reinforced‐concrete bridge column. The column was statically pushed incrementally with lateral displacements until a plastic hinge is fully formed at the bottom portion of the column. Vibration tests were performed at different damage stages. The proposed damage detection method was able to locate the damaged region using a simplified analytical model and the modal parameters estimated from the vibration tests, although (1) only the first bending and first torsional modes were estimated from the experimental test data, (2) the locations where the accelerations were measured did not coincide with the degrees of freedom of the analytical model, and (3) there existed discrepancies between the undamaged test structure and the analytical model. The Bayesian framework was able to systematically update the damage probabilities when new test data became available. Better diagnosis was obtained by employing multiple data sets than just by using each test data set separately. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

引入PLSA模型的光学遥感图像舰船检测

提出一种基于概率潜在语义分析(Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis,PLSA)的检测算法,首先通过PLSA将目标表述为潜在成分的概率组合,然后利用统计模式识别方法对获取的潜在成分概率进行判别,从而完成最终的检测。其中,生成的潜在成分反映了目标与特征之间相互出现的频率关系,并以潜在成分在目标中概率差异的形式对上述不对应现象给出了直观描述。实验结果表明,所提出的算法对多种复杂情况下的光学图像舰船检测具有很好的准确性和鲁棒性。     

Time-variant fragility analysis of the bridge system considering time-varying dependence among typical component seismic demands

This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Based on material deterioration mechanisms and incremental dynamic analysis, the time-evolving seismic demands of components were obtained in the form of marginal probability distributions. The time-varying dependences among bridge components were then captured with the best fitting copula function, which was selected from the commonly used copula classes by the empirical distribution based analysis method. The system time-variant fragility curves at different damage states were developed and the effects of time-varying dependences among components on the bridge system fragility were investigated. The results indicate the time-varying dependence among components significantly affects the time-variant fragility of the bridge system. The copula technique captures the nonlinear dependence among component seismic demands accurately and easily by separating the marginal distributions and the dependence among them.     

A framework for the evaluation of ground motion selection and modification procedures

This study develops a framework to evaluate ground motion selection and modification (GMSM) procedures. The context is probabilistic seismic demand analysis, where response history analyses of a given structure, using ground motions determined by a GMSM procedure, are performed in order to estimate the seismic demand hazard curve (SDHC) for the structure at a given site. Currently, a GMSM procedure is evaluated in this context by comparing several resulting estimates of the SDHC, each derived from a different definition of the conditioning intensity measure (IM). Using a simple case study, we demonstrate that conclusions from such an approach are not always definitive; therefore, an alternative approach is desirable. In the alternative proposed herein, all estimates of the SDHC from GMSM procedures are compared against a benchmark SDHC, under a common set of ground motion information. This benchmark SDHC is determined by incorporating a prediction model for the seismic demand into the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis calculations. To develop an understanding of why one GMSM procedure may provide more accurate estimates of the SDHC than another procedure, we identify the role of ‘IM sufficiency’ in the relationship between (i) bias in the SDHC estimate and (ii) ‘hazard consistency’ of the corresponding ground motions obtained from a GMSM procedure. Finally, we provide examples of how misleading conclusions may potentially be obtained from erroneous implementations of the proposed framework. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intensity measures for probabilistic assessment of non‐structural components acceleration demand

A fundamental issue in the framework of seismic probabilistic risk analysis is the choice of ground motion intensity measures (IMs). Based on the floor response spectrum method, the present contribution focuses on the ability of IMs to predict non‐structural components (NSCs) horizontal acceleration demand. A large panel of IMs is examined and a new IM, namely equipment relative average spectral acceleration (E‐ASA_R), is proposed for the purpose of NSCs acceleration demand prediction. The IMs efficiency and sufficiency comparisons are based on (i) the use of a large dataset of recorded earthquake ground motions; (ii) numerical analyses performed on three‐dimensional numerical models, representing actual structural wall and frame buildings; and (iii) systematic statistical analysis of the results. From the comparative study, the herein introduced E‐ASA_R shows high efficiency with respect to the estimation of maximum floor response spectra ordinates. Such efficiency is particularly remarkable in the case of structural wall buildings. Besides, the sufficiency and the simple formulation allowing the use of existing ground motion prediction models make the E‐ASA_R a promising IMs for seismic probabilistic risk assessment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

断层地表潜在突发位移的概率评价初探

目前跨活动断层的线状工程的抗断设防仍采用确定性评价方法 ,考虑的是最大位错量 ,与抗御灾害的风险设计的实际要求不相符。文中将断层上最大位错点的位置分布及最大位错点两侧的位错展布 ,与可产生地表突发位移的强震复发模型联合 ,建立了评估活动断层各部位的地表潜在突发位移的概率性评价方法。最后 ,以怀涿盆地北缘正断裂中的沈庄 -长疃段为例 ,对其未来 10 0a潜在突发位移的危险性做出定量评估 ,给出了断层段上各点不同超越概率水平下的潜在位移。这一研究结果 ,可为跨断裂的线型工程进行抗御地表潜在突发位移的风险设计提供参考     

Seismic demand models for probabilistic risk analysis of near fault vertical ground motion effects on ordinary highway bridges

The influence of vertical ground motions on the seismic response of highway bridges is not very well understood. Recent studies suggest that vertical ground motions can substantially increase force and moment demands on bridge columns and girders and cannot be overlooked in seismic design of bridge structures. For an evaluation of vertical ground motion effects on the response of single‐bent two‐span highway bridges, a systematic study combining the critical engineering demand parameters (EDPs) and ground motion intensity measures (IMs) is required. Results of a parametric study examining a range of highway bridge configurations subjected to selected sets of horizontal and vertical ground motions are used to determine the structural parameters that are significantly amplified by the vertical excitations. The amplification in these parameters is modeled using simple equations that are functions of horizontal and vertical spectral accelerations at the corresponding horizontal and vertical fundamental periods of the bridge. This paper describes the derivation of seismic demand models developed for typical highway overcrossings by incorporating critical EDPs and combined effects of horizontal and vertical ground motion IMs depending on the type of the parameter and the period of the structure. These models may be used individually as risk‐based design tools to determine the probability of exceeding the critical levels of EDP for pre‐determined levels of ground shaking or may be included explicitly in probabilistic seismic risk assessments. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

概率神经网络技术在煤田地震反演中的应用研究

实现从构造勘探向岩性勘探阶段的转变,是煤田地震勘探亟待解决的重要问题。其中,地震反演技术是岩性勘探的一种重要手段。为了规避常规反演方法的固有限制,利用概率神经网络技术预测井数据和地震数据之间的非线性关系,得到密度数据体和速度数据体,并获得相应的波阻抗数据体。对某矿区的实际地震资料采用该技术进行岩性反演,得到了较为准确的波阻抗数据体,为岩性解释提供了不可或缺的资料。     

Directed movements in probabilistic time geography

This article studies probabilistic time geography for space–time prisms, that is, for situations where observers know the location of an agent at one time and then again at another time. In the intervening period, the agent would have moved freely, according to its time budget. The article demonstrates that the probability of finding the agent somewhere in the space–time prism is not equally distributed, so any attempt of a quantitative time geographic analysis must consider the actual probability distribution. This article develops, implements, and demonstrates this distribution. A preceding article introduced probabilistic time geography for space–time cones. With cones and prisms, the elementary space–time volumes of time geography are provided.