Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty. A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves.     

Improved seismic hazard model with application to probabilistic seismic demand analysis

An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these ‘exact’ hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance‐based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi‐analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi‐analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed‐form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the ‘exact’ numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The study of the undiscovered mineral resources of the Tongass National Forest and adjacent lands,Southeastern Alaska

The quantitative probabilistic assessment of the undiscovered mineral resources of the 17.1-million-acre Tongass National Forest (the largest in the United States) and its adjacent lands is a nonaggregated, mineral-resource-tract-oriented assessment designed for land-planning purposes. As such, it includes the renewed use of gross-in-place values (GIPV's) in dollars of the estimated amounts of metal contained in the undiscovered resources as a measure for land-use planning.Southeastern Alaska is geologically complex and contains a wide variety of known mineral deposits, some of which have produced important amounts of metals during the past 100 years. Regional geological, economic geological, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral exploration history information for the region was integrated to define 124 tracts likely to contain undiscovered mineral resources. Some tracts were judged to contain more than one type of mineral deposit. Each type of deposit may contain one or more metallic elements of economic interest. For tracts where information was sufficient, the minimum number of as-yet-undiscovered deposits of each type was estimated at probability levels of 0.95, 0.90, 0.50, 0.10, and 0.05.The undiscovered mineral resources of the individual tracts were estimated using the U.S. Geological Survey's MARK3 mineral-resource endowment simulator; those estimates were used to calculate GIPV's for the individual tracts. Those GIPV's were aggregated to estimate the value of the undiscovered mineral resources of southeastern Alaska. The aggregated GIPV of the estimates is $40.9 billion.Analysis of this study indicates that (1) there is only a crude positive correlation between the size of individual tracts and their mean GIPV's: and (2) the number of mineral-deposit types in a tract does not dominate the GIPV's of the tracts, but the inferred presence of synorogenic-synvolcanic nickel-copper, porphyry copper skarn-related, iron skarn, and porphyry copper-molybdenum deposits does. The influence of this study on the U.S. Forest Service planning process is yet to be determined.     

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Tulbagh,South Africa: Part I – Assessment of Seismic Hazard

In this part of our study the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Tulbagh was performed. The applied procedure is parametric and consists essentially of two steps. The first step is applicable to the area in the vicinity of Tulbagh and requires an estimation of the area-specific parameters, which, in this case, is the mean seismic activity rate, , the Gutenberg-Richter parameter, b, and the maximum regional magnitude, m_max. The second step is applicable to the Tulbagh site, and consists of parameters of distribution of amplitude of the selected ground motion parameter. The current application of the procedure provides an assessment of the PSHA in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA). The procedure permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The historical part of the catalogue only contains the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several subcatalogues, each assumed complete above a specified threshold of magnitude. In the analysis, the uncertainty in the determination of the earthquake was taken into account by incorporation of the concept of `apparent magnitude'. The PSHA technique has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard at individual sites without the subjective judgement involved in the definition of seismic source zones, when the specific active faults have not been mapped or identified, and where the causes of seismicity are not well understood. The results of the hazard assessment are expressed as probabilities that specified values of PGA will be exceeded during the chosen time intervals, and similarly for the spectral accelerations. A worst case scenario sketches the possibility of a maximum PGA of 0.30g. The results of the hazard assessment can be used as input to a seismic risk assessment.     

用历史类比法对中国强震活动的概率预测

本文将20世纪全球强震活动划分为7个活动期,以国内中强以上地震同期活动资料进行比较,对未来国内强震活动趋势作出中期的统计概率预测,似乎可以作为一个较为有力的判据。     

基于对流可分辨集合预报的阜宁龙卷概率预报研究

本文针对2016年6月23日江苏阜宁龙卷,设计了两组对流可分辨尺度集合预报:一组以ERA5再分析资料为初始和侧边界(CEFS_ERA5);另一组以NCEP GEFS为初始和侧边界(CEFS_GEFS),评估了两组试验对此次龙卷的预报能力。结果显示:两组对流尺度集合预报均有约半数以上成员能够再现龙卷超级单体的特征;2~5 km上升螺旋度(UH25)对本次龙卷超级单体有较好的预报指示意义。在上述分析的基础上,考虑位置预报偏差,提出了一种基于UH25的邻域龙卷概率预报产品,分析了龙卷概率预报技巧对关键参数邻域半径和UH25阈值的敏感性,CEFS_ERA5邻域半径取15个格点,UH25阈值取250 m²·s^-2最优;而CEFS_GEFS邻域半径取15个格点,UH25阈值取100 m²·s^-2最优。总的来说,邻域概率预报产品显著提升了对此次龙卷概率预报水平。     

Effect of spatial variability of cross‐correlated soil properties on bearing capacity of strip footing

Geotechnical engineering problems are characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of these sources are connected to the uncertainties of soil properties involved in the analysis. In this paper, a numerical procedure for a probabilistic analysis that considers the spatial variability of cross‐correlated soil properties is presented and applied to study the bearing capacity of spatially random soil with different autocorrelation distances in the vertical and horizontal directions. The approach integrates a commercial finite difference method and random field theory into the framework of a probabilistic analysis. Two‐dimensional cross‐correlated non‐Gaussian random fields are generated based on a Karhunen–Loève expansion in a manner consistent with a specified marginal distribution function, an autocorrelation function, and cross‐correlation coefficients. A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses was performed to study the effects of uncertainty due to the spatial heterogeneity on the bearing capacity of a rough strip footing. The simulations provide insight into the application of uncertainty treatment to geotechnical problems and show the importance of the spatial variability of soil properties with regard to the outcome of a probabilistic assessment. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic aspects of micropaleontologic assemblage zones

A micropaleontologic assemblage zone is defined by occurrence of some characteristic species among many coeval species. When number of assemblage-defining species and total number of species observed are designated as Aand N,respectively, the ratio, A/N,is strongly dependent on duration of the assemblage. Theoretical consideration on the basis of a micropaleontologic cohort model shows that, when origination rate and extinction rate of species are obtained, the most reasonable ratio (A/N) and duration of the assemblage can be determined. The probabilistic model described in this paper provides a theoretical relation between the ratio and the duration. Inaccuracy in correlating micropaleontologic data to certain assemblage zones established can not be avoided because of many natural sorting and artificial biases. Ambiguity arising when data with a small number of characteristic species are correlated with a certain assemblage is numerically estimated.     

Deterministic and ensemble storm surge prediction for Atlantic Canada with lead times of hours to ten days

Regional deterministic and ensemble surge prediction systems (RDSPS and RESPS respectively) are used to forecast sea levels off the east of Canada and northeast US. The surge models for the RDSPS and RESPS have grid spacings of 1/30° and 1/12° respectively. The models are driven by surface air pressure and 10 m winds generated by operational global deterministic and ensemble prediction systems that are run operationally by the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Surge forecasts are evaluated for the period 1 March, 2013 to 31 March 2014. Based on traditional statistics (e.g., standard deviation of the difference between observations and predictions) both systems are shown to have skill in forecasting surges six days into the future. It is shown however that skill exists beyond six days if allowance is made for errors in the timing of large surges. The usefulness of the RESPS is demonstrated for two positive surges (important for coastal flooding and erosion) and a negative surge (important for safe navigation in shallow water). It is shown that the RESPS can identify events not forecast by the RDSPS, and can also add useful additional information on the timing of the surge, an important consideration in tidally dominated waters. Several new types of display are used to illustrate the sort of information that can be generated by the RESPS to support the issuers of warnings of unusually high and low total water levels.     

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.