RegCM3模式对中国东部夏季降水的模拟试验

利用最新发布的区域气候模式RegCM3对1998年5—8月中国东部降水进行了模拟试验，考察了模式对降水和大尺度环流系统的模拟能力。结果表明：不同对流性降水方案对不同月份、不同区域的降水模拟效果差别较大，采用Kuo方案和Grell方案时模拟的降水效果要好于BM方案；RegCM3能较成功地再现异常降水的月际尺度变化和空间分布等基本特征；模式还较好地模拟了西太平洋副高脊线的演变过程和两次向北传播的季节内振荡。该模式可应用于中国东部夏季风降水的研究。     

太阳活动与黄河流域降水关系分析

太阳活动对黄河流域降水有一定影响.引用Morlet小波分析技术,对黄河流域近50年来的降水与太阳黑子的小波系数变化进行分析,表明在1951～1997年期间,黄河流域年降水与太阳黑子在9年时间尺度上呈一定的负相关关系,且降水有1～2年的滞后现象.     

石河子地区降水资源分析

分析了石河子地区位于不同海拔高度的3个观测站的降水资料，结果表明，石河子地区各地降水量分布不均，石河子年降水量最多，其次是炮台，最少是莫索湾。3站季节变化一致，均以春夏季降水量居多，约占全年63％，冬季降水量最少，约占全年的13％。降水量年际变化一致，70年代降水量偏少，80年代以后降水量偏多。出现丰水年和干旱年的降水趋势一致，且出现丰水或干旱时大面积发生的机率较大。     

不同辐射传输方案对中尺度降水影响的对比分析

在MM5非静力稳定中尺度气象模式中引进了建立在δ-4流近似和相关-k分布基础上的对云水、雨水、冰晶和霰的辐射特性进行详细描述的辐射传输方案。新建立的辐射传输方案和MM5中原有的辐射传输方案在华南暴雨中的模拟结果相互比较，并与天气实况的对比表明:辐射在中尺度暴雨中起着重要的作用；辐射传输方案对云辐射特性描述的准确程度对于地面降水影响是明显的；不同的辐射传输方案对地面降水的影响存在较大的差异，并且这些差异在白天比在夜间明显；辐射传输过程对地面降水影响的差异主要表现在降水中心上，而对降水的地理分布改变很小；相对而言，不同的辐射传输方案之间对短波描述的差异对地面降水的影响明显，而对长波描述差异的影响不大；新辐射传输方案能够在一定程度上改进MM5对中尺度降水的模拟能力。     

T106产品中700hPa垂直速度和水汽能量与塔城大降水关系的探讨

对塔城盆地1998－1999年15个大降水个例进行了诊断分析，发现了T106产品700hPa垂直速度和水汽通量与塔城盆地大降水量级呈正相关，并给出了定量预报指标。     

全球陆地年降水量与ENSO关系的初步研究

用全球陆地月降水资料（PREC／L），研究了1948－2000年期间的ENSO事件与全球陆地年降水量的关系，对全盛分析的结果进行了蒙特卡洛模拟经验。结果表明，暖事件年全球陆地年降水量大范围地明显减小，显著的地区是：赤道西太平洋区，中国的华北，赤道中美洲区，孟加拉湾北部及尼泊尔，东澳大利亚区，印度西部及巴基斯坦南部，勒拿河以东地区，西欧及南极的威尔克斯等区域。在暖事件年，陆地年降水量增加地区不多，主要是南美的智利和阿根廷，东非索马里，肯尼亚和坦桑亚，中东的土耳其，伊拉克及伊朗，北非的利比亚和阿尔及利亚，西南非的纳米比亚及非洲南部的博茨瓦纳和津巴布韦。统计检验表明，暖事件年全球陆地年降水量减少的面积比降水量增加的面积要大，而且更为显著，将本文结果与早期的研究结果进行了比较，研究还指出，ENSO的年代际变化对上述地区降水的年代际变化影响不明显。但是80年代以后的暖事件对东澳大利亚干旱，中国的华北的干旱的影响比80年代前的影响更大。     

吐鲁番山区人工增水作业效果的统计分析

应用统计检验和回归分析两种数理统计方法，对吐鲁番1997－2000年山区人工增水作业效果进行了分析。结果得出作业影响区内作业年份5－6月平均流量显著增加。     

Parameter identification of inelastic structures under dynamic loads

The generalized model of differential hysteresis contains 13 control parameters with which it can curve‐fit practically any hysteretic trace. Three identification algorithms are developed to estimate the control parameters of hysteresis for different classes of inelastic structures. These algorithms are based upon the simplex, extended Kalman filter, and generalized reduced gradient methods. Novel techniques such as global search and internal constraints are incorporated to facilitate convergence and stability. Effectiveness of the devised algorithms is demonstrated through simulations of two inelastic systems with both pinching and degradation characteristics in their hysteretic traces. Owing to very modest computing requirements, these identification algorithms may become acceptable as a design tool for mapping the hysteretic traces of inelastic structures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mantle structure and rifting processes in the Baikal–Mongolia region: geophysical data and evidence from xenoliths in volcanic rocks

The origin of the Baikal rift zone (BRZ) has been debated between the advocates of passive and active rifting since the 1970s. A re-assessment of the relevant geological and geophysical data from Russian and international literature questions the concept of broad asthenospheric upwelling beneath the rift zone that has been the cornerstone of many “active rifting” models. Results of a large number of early and recent studies favour the role of far-field forces in the opening and development of the BRZ. This study emphasises the data obtained through studies of peridotite and pyroxenite xenoliths brought to the surface by alkali basaltic magmas in southern Siberia and central Mongolia. These xenoliths are direct samples of the upper mantle in the vicinity of the BRZ. Of particular importance are suites of garnet-bearing xenoliths that have been used to construct P–T- composition lithospheric cross-sections in the region for the depth range of 35–80 km.Xenolith studies have shown fundamental differences in the composition and thermal regime between the lithospheric mantle beneath the ancient Siberian platform (sampled by kimberlites) and beneath younger mobile belts south of the platform. The uppermost mantle in southern Siberia and central Mongolia is much hotter at similar levels than the mantle in the Siberian craton and also has significantly higher contents of ‘basaltic’ major elements (Ca, Al, Na) and iron, higher Fe/Si and Fe/Mg. The combination of the moderately high geothermal gradient and the fertile compositions in the off-cratonic mantle appears to be a determining factor controlling differences in sub-Moho seismic velocities relative to the Siberian craton. Chemical and isotopic compositions of the off-cratonic xenoliths indicate small-scale and regional mantle heterogeneities attributed to various partial melting and enrichment events, consistent with long-term evolution in the lithospheric mantle. Age estimates of mantle events based on Os–Sr–Nd isotopic data can be correlated with major regional stages of crustal formation and may indicate long-term crust–mantle coupling. The ratios of ^143/144Nd in many LREE-depleted xenoliths are higher than those in MORB or OIB source regions and are not consistent with a recent origin from asthenospheric mantle.Mantle xenoliths nearest to the rift basins (30–50 km south of southern Lake Baikal) show no unequivocal evidence for strong heating, unusual stress and deformation, solid state flow, magmatic activity or partial melting that could be indicative of an asthenospheric intrusion right below the Moho. Comparisons between xenoliths from older and younger volcanic rocks east of Lake Baikal, together with observations on phase transformations and mineral zoning in individual xenoliths, have indicated recent heating in portions of the lithospheric mantle that may be related to localised magmatic activity or small-scale ascent of deep mantle material. Overall, the petrographic, P–T, chemical and isotopic constraints from mantle xenoliths appear to be consistent with recent geophysical studies, which found no evidence for a large-scale asthenospheric upwarp beneath the rift, and lend support to passive rifting mechanism for the BRZ.     

Heat flow and thermal modeling of the Yinggehai Basin, South China Sea

Geothermal gradients are estimated to vary from 31 to 43 °C/km in the Yinggehai Basin based on 99 temperature data sets compiled from oil well data. Thirty-seven thermal conductivity measurements on core samples were made and the effects of porosity and water saturation were corrected. Thermal conductivities of mudstone and sandstone range from 1.2 to 2.7 W/m K, with a mean of 2.0±0.5 W/m K after approximate correction. Heat flow at six sites in the Yinggehai Basin range from 69 to 86 mW/m², with a mean value of 79±7 mW/m². Thick sediments and high sedimentation rates resulted in a considerable radiogenic contribution, but also depressed the heat flow. Measurements indicate the radiogenic heat production in the sediment is 1.28 μW/m³, which contributes 20% to the surface heat flow. After subtracting radiogenic heat contribution of the sediment, and sedimentation correction, the average basal heat flow from basement is about 86 mW/m².Three stages of extension are recognized in the subsidence history, and a kinematic model is used to study the thermal evolution of the basin since the Cenozoic era. Model results show that the peak value of basal heat flow was getting higher and higher through the Cenozoic. The maximum basal heat flow increased from 65 mW/m² in the first stage to 75 mW/m² in the second stage, and then 90 mW/m² in the third stage. The present temperature field of the lithosphere of the Yinggehai Basin, which is still transient, is the result of the multistage extension, but was primarily associated with the Pliocene extension.