1995-2010年山东省粮食单产变化空间分异及均衡增产潜力

以县域为基本空间单元,采用GIS 空间分析和ESDA方法,对山东省1995-2010 年间县域粮食单产空间格局变化进行了分析,在此基础上,结合全国农业生态区划,分析山东省粮食均衡增产潜力。结果表明:① 山东省县域粮食单产水平之间的差异整体上呈现出先增大后减小的趋势。鲁北和鲁西北平原农业生产基础差,单产增长速度最快;鲁西南平原农业生产基础差,单产增长速度较慢;鲁中南丘陵和山东半岛农业生产基础好,单产增长速度较慢;② 县域粮食单产变化的Global Moran's I 值为0.5708,表明单产变化的区域分布并非完全随机,而是表现出明显的空间集聚特征,4 种集聚类型中,“H-H”类型区和“L-L”类型区占主导,“H-H”类型区主要分布在鲁北和鲁西北平原,“L-L”类型区主要分布在鲁西南平原、鲁中南丘陵和山东半岛;③ 全省可划分为4 个一级、9 个二级均衡增产类型区,粮食单产增产潜力鲁北和鲁西北平原>鲁中南丘陵>山东半岛>鲁西南平原;总产量增产潜力约为9.50×10⁶ t,其中鲁中南丘陵>鲁北和鲁西北平原>鲁西南平原>山东半岛。     

道路交通节能减排途径与潜力分析

交通运输行业是仅次于制造业的第二大油品消耗行业,也是实现低碳生活发展路径的重点行业。基于交通运输部门碳排放量现状分析,本文提出了优先发展公共交通、鼓励发展小排量汽车、降低机动车单耗、控制排放物标准等四种挖潜减排途径,并利用排放量估算和情景分析相结合的方法,对我国道路交通减排潜力进行了预测。按照高中低度三种减排情景发展,测算出2015年及2020年减排量,为实现至2020年我国碳排放较2005年下降40%~45%的目标提供科学基础。研究认为:2010-2020年是中国交通运输行业高速发展阶段,要满足能源安全和温室气体减排要求,我国需要实施更严格的产业和环境政策,若强化低碳情景模式,则2015年、2020年的碳排减少量分别约为2183万t、7148万t,达到我国道路交通部门的最大减排潜力。     

察尔汗盐湖雅丹地貌区风况分析

输沙势（DP）是风沙地貌研究中使用的一个重要参数,但是在风蚀地貌,如雅丹地貌研究中,鲜有使用者。本文利用建立在察尔汗盐湖雅丹地貌区的自动气象观测仪所记录的风速数据,分析了雅丹地貌区的风速、风向及输沙势变化特征。结果表明:该区起沙风的月平均风速在6.2～7.4 m·s-1之间波动,月最大风速变化范围为9.9～15.0 m·s-1。起沙风主要发生于春、夏两季,发生频率分别为39.63%、31.45%。起沙风风向以WNW、W为主,分别占年起沙风的41.05%、20.02%。年DP为326 VU,年RDP为235 VU,为中风能环境。年净输沙方向为ESE。方向变率指数（RDP/DP）0.72,为中比率,对应风向变率也为中等,为钝双峰风况。雅丹体长轴走向与盛行风向基本一致,该区雅丹地貌的形成以风力作用为主。     

深水悬臂桥墩动力特性及地震响应分析

利用ADINA中的势流体单元对一已建成的深水高墩建模,桥梁上部结构对桥墩的影响以墩顶集中质量的形式体现,分别对不同水深条件下桥墩-水体系的动力特性和地震动响应进行了系统的求解;为了检验Morison方程在深水桥墩动力分析中的有效性,将基于忽略速度力项的Morison方程的计算结果与基于势流体的结果进行了比较。研究结果表明：①水体对结构的自振频率折减影响随着水深的增大而增大,基于Morison方程得到的结构频率的影响大于势流体模型;②水深对墩顶位移的影响比加速度明显,墩底剪力受水深的影响大于其对墩底弯矩的影响;③考虑上部集中质量的影响,结构的响应会不同程度地减小;④相对于势流模型,忽略速度项的Morison方程所得到的结构动力反应略显保守。     

Radial Basis Functional Link Nets Used as a Prospectivity Mapping Tool for Orogenic Gold Deposits Within the Central Lapland Greenstone Belt, Northern Fennoscandian Shield

Among the more popular spatial modeling techniques, artificial neural networks (ANN) are tools that can deal with non-linear relationships, can classify unknown data into categories by using known examples for training, and can deal with uncertainty; characteristics that provide new possibilities for data exploration. Radial basis functional link nets (RBFLN), a form of ANN, are applied to generate a series of prospectivity maps for orogenic gold deposits within the Paleoproterozoic Central Lapland Greenstone Belt, Northern Fennoscandian Shield, Finland, which is considered highly prospective yet clearly under explored. The supervised RBFLN performs better than previously applied statistical weights-of-evidence or conceptual fuzzy logic methods, and equal to logistic regression method, when applied to the same geophysical and geochemical data layers that are proxies for conceptual geological controls. By weighting the training feature vectors in terms of the size of the gold deposits, the classification of the neural network results provides an improved prediction of the distribution of the more important deposits/occurrences. Thus, ANN, more specifically RBFLN, potentially provide a better tool to other methodologies in the development of prospectivity maps for mineral deposits, hence aiding conceptual exploration.     

Assessment of nutrient sources and paleoproductivity during the past century in Longgan Lake,middle reaches of the Yangtze River,China

Total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were determined in combination with stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen (δ¹³C_Org, δ¹⁵N) in a 63 cm sediment core from Longgan Lake, located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, China. These geochemical and isotopic records provide a continuous history of lake productivity and trophic state of Longgan Lake since 1890. Variations of δ¹³C_Org, TOC, TN and TP indicate that primary productivity of Longgan Lake increased continuously during the last century and that the trophic state of the lake shifted from oligotrophic to mestrotrophic conditions accordingly. Anthropogenic sources of organic carbon (OC), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) were distinguished from their natural background in the sediments using mass accumulation rates. Element mass accumulation rates suggested increased human activities in the lake’s catchment since 1950s, were especially the utilization of artificial fertilizers amplified the anthropogenic input of N and P into the lake. In the course of the improved availability of dissolved nutrients also primary productivity of Longgan Lake increased, resulting in an increase of the Suess-effect corrected organic carbon isotope ratios. δ¹⁵N of bulk sediments show a marked shift towards lower values around 1950 that has been attributed to the input of nitrogen from chemical fertilizers characterized by relatively depleted isotopic signatures into the lake.     

“蒸发悖论”在黑河流域的探讨

利用黑河流域12个气象站点1960-2010年的气象资料,运用FAO Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散量,采用旋转经验正交函数、Mann-Kendall检验等方法系统分析了过去51 a间潜在蒸散量及气温的变化趋势,重点对"蒸发悖论"在黑河流域的规律进行分析.结果表明:根据潜在蒸散量的旋转经验正交函数分区结果,黑河流域可以划分为4个子区."蒸发悖论"仅于1960-1993年存在于黑河流域河西走廊区(Ⅱ区、Ⅲ区);其它各区无"蒸发悖论".1994-2010年由于潜在蒸散量的显著上升,河西走廊区"蒸发悖论"消失.1993年是黑河流域潜在蒸散量变化趋势的一个转折点,1994-2010年黑河流域的潜在蒸散量表现为统计显著的上升趋势.风速的变化是影响黑河流域河西走廊区"蒸发悖论"出现和消失的重要因素.     

南黄海盆地二叠系烃源岩孢粉相特征及其形成环境

以沉积环境控制烃源岩发育理论为指导,应用孢粉相分析方法,以南黄海盆地二叠系大隆组、龙潭组和栖霞组烃源岩层段为研究对象,对典型钻井剖面的孢粉及沉积有机屑进行系统的分析。根据沉积有机屑的丰度特征和组分类型,探讨三套烃源岩的形成环境,初步评价其生烃潜力。研究结果表明,利用孢粉相分析方法,可以有效地对高成熟海相烃源岩的生烃潜力和形成环境进行客观评价:栖霞组为缺氧远陆架沉积环境,以无定形有机质为主,水体分层缺氧,是烃源岩形成的有利环境;大隆组为缺氧和少氧的陆架环境,也较有利于烃源岩的形成,生烃潜力较栖霞组差;龙潭组煤质型有机质较为丰富,为充氧的陆架区,以陆源输入为主,沉积区水体较浅,含氧量高,不利于富氢烃源岩的形成。     

基于MapGIS的徐州市矿产资源潜力评价数据库建设

为了科学合理地对徐州市境内的矿产资源潜力进行评价,寻求地区经济与社会的可持续发展的资源优势,以现有资料为基础,对多源数据进行规范整理,统一空间坐标参数,利用MapGIS和Access软件,初步建立了图形数据属性数据相结合的徐州市基础矿产地质数据库。结合项目的需要,依据规范建设专题数据库,为开展区内现代矿产资源潜力评价工作奠定了基础。