Regression‐based approach to low flow prediction in the Maryland Piedmont region under joint climate and land use change

We examine the low flow records for six urbanized watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region and develop regression equations to predict annual minimum low flow events. The effects of both future climate (based on precipitation and temperature projections from two climate models: Hadley and the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC)) and land use change are incorporated to illustrate possible future trends in low flows. A regression modelling approach is pursued to predict the minimum annual 7‐day low flow estimates for the proposed future scenarios. A regional regression model was calibrated with between 10 and 50 years of daily precipitation, daily average temperature, annual imperviousness, and the daily observed flow time‐series across six watersheds. Future simulations based on a 55 km² urbanizing watershed just north of Washington, DC, were performed. When land use and climate change were employed singly, the former predicted no trends in low flows and the latter predicted significant increasing trends under Hadley and no trends under CCC. When employed jointly, however, low flows were predicted to decrease significantly under CCC, whereas Hadley predicted no significant trends in low flows. Antecedent precipitation was the most influential predictor on low flows, followed by urbanization. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of road‐generated storm runoff on a small catchment response

The impact of road‐generated runoff on the hydrological response of a zero‐order basin was monitored for a sequence of 24 storm events. The study was conducted in a zero‐order basin (C1; 0·5ha) with an unpaved mountain road; an adjacent unroaded zero‐order basin (C2; 0·2 ha) with similar topography and lithology was used to evaluate the hydrological behaviour of the affected zero‐order basin prior to construction of the road. The impact of the road at the zero‐order basin scale was highly dependent on the antecedent soil‐moisture conditions, total storm precipitation, and to some extent rainfall intensity. At the beginning of the monitoring period, during dry antecedent conditions, road runoff contributed 50% of the total runoff and 70% of the peak flow from the affected catchment (C1). The response from the unroaded catchment was almost insignificant during dry antecedent conditions. As soil moisture increased, the road exerted less influence on the total runoff from the roaded catchment. For very wet conditions, the influence of road‐generated runoff on total outflow from the roaded catchment diminished to only 5·4%. Both catchments, roaded and unroaded, produced equivalent amount of outflow during very wet antecedent conditions on a unit area basis. The lag time between the rainfall and runoff peaks observed in the unroaded catchment during the monitoring period ranged from 0 to 4 h depending on the amount of precipitation and antecedent conditions, owing mainly to much slower subsurface flow pathways in the unroaded zero‐order basin. In contrast, the lag time in the roaded zero‐order basin was virtually nil during all storms. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of heterogeneous stress and strain on metamorphic fluid flow,Mary Kathleen,Australia, and a model for large-scale fluid circulation *

In the Proterozoic Mary Kathleen Fold Belt, northern Australia, infiltration of large volumes of externally derived fluid occurred synchronously with regional amphibolite-facies metamorphism and deformation. This paper develops a model of structurally controlled fluid migration by comparing the distribution of fossil fluid pathways with the inferred stress and strain patterns during the deformation. Intense fluid flow was localized within strong, relatively brittle meta-intrusive bodies, and in discrete, veined, brecciated and altered zones around their margins. In metasediments folded in a ductile manner outside these areas, fluid infiltration was negligible. The direct correlation between structural styles and the magnitude of veining and metasomatism suggests control of permeability enhancement, and hence fluid flow, by deformation. Finite difference modelling of a strong body in a weaker matrix has been used to evaluate the variation of stresses during the deformation, from which it is clear that stress and strain heterogeneities have systematically influenced the development and maintenance of metamorphic fluid pathways. Particular regions in which mean stress may be significantly lower than the average lithostatic pressures include the ‘strain shadow’zones adjacent to the strong bodies, other dilatant zones around the bodies, and the bodies themselves. This geometry is favourable not only for localized brittle deformation under amphilobite facies conditions, but also for focused fluid flow in the low mean stress regions, as evidenced by the abundance of veins. Fluid access through these metamorphic aquifers occurred during tensile failure episodes, with particularly large dilations and decimetre-scale veining in areas of strain incompatibility. It appears likely that fluid circulated many times through the Fold Belt, with flow concentrated in the metamorphic aquifers. A model is developed that explains both the structurally focused fluid flow and the postulated multi-pass recirculation by dilatancy pumping, the ‘pump engines’comprising the low mean stress zones.     

Salinograph trends as indicators of the recession characteristics of stream components

Compared to hydrograph recession analysis, which is widely applied in engineering hydrology, the quantitative assessment of stream salinity with time (i.e. the salinograph) has received significantly less attention. In particular, while in many previous hydrological studies an inverse relationship between hydrograph and salinograph responses is apparent, the concept of salinity accession (the inversely related salinity counterpart to hydrograph recession) has not been introduced nor quantitatively evaluated in previous literature. In this study, we conduct a mathematical analysis of salinograph accession, and determine new quantitative relationships between salinity accession and hydrograph recession parameters. An equation is formulated that reproduces the general trend in salinity accession. A salinity accession parameter k_c is then introduced and is shown to be the ratio of direct runoff to total stream flow recession parameters: k_r/k. The groundwater recession parameter k_g was estimated using a simple and rapid method that uses both salinograph and hydrograph data. Salinity accession type‐curves illustrate that under certain conditions, the relative steepness of individual salinographs is dependent upon the ratio of groundwater salinity to direct runoff salinity: C_g/C_r. The salinity accession algorithms are applied to two contrasting field settings: Scott Creek, South Australia and Sandy Creek, northern Queensland, Australia. It was found that k_g > k during periods of obvious stream flow recession, for the events analysed. Salinograph accession behaviour was fairly similar for both sites, despite contrasting environments. Using assumed end‐member salinities for groundwater and direct runoff based upon field observations, the behaviour of k_c from the Scott Creek site was approximately reproduced by varying the initial groundwater to runoff flow ratio: Q_g0/Q_r0, within reasonable parameter ranges. The use of salinograph information when used in addition to standard hydrograph analyses provided useful information on recession characteristics of stream components. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response of saturated and nearly saturated porous media: Different formulations and their applicability

The response of saturated porous medium is of significant interest in many fields ranging from geomechanics to biomechanics. Biot was the first to formulate the basic equations governing the process of coupled flow and deformation in porous media. Depending on the nature of loading vis‐à‐vis the characteristics of the media, different formulations (fully dynamic, partly dynamic, quasi‐static) are possible. In this study, analytical solutions are developed for the response of saturated and nearly saturated porous media under plane strain condition. The solutions for different formulations are developed in terms of non‐dimensional parameters. The response is studied for various conditions and the regions of validity for various formulations are identified in a parametric space. An assessment of the needed formulation for few important problems is also presented. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

颗粒流沉积边程中的同沉积冲刷变形构造

济阳拗陷坨147井沙三段岩心的颗粒流沉积中．存在一系列特殊的同沉积期变形构造。包括：颗粒流向下侵蚀。并沿纹层面挤入到下伏油页岩层中．形成伸长状的小砂体；砂楔上部的泥页岩薄层在后续流体的冲刷下向后翻卷变形；翻卷片被撕裂、断开混入到颗粒流中。并被流体拖曳变形；变形体被继续拖曳形成脉状分叉的拖曳痕。上述几种现象可以构成一个连续的变化序列，与油页岩的薄互层和颗粒流的流体是形成上述连续变形构造的重要条件。对这种现象的研究．有助于进一步了解重力流的冲刷、沉积过程。     

The effects of rock fragments on hydrologic and hydraulic responses along a slope

A model describing the three‐dimensional matrix flow along a slope with rock fragments or impermeable blocks was developed. The model was combined with modified Picard's iteration to ensure mass conservation in the unsaturated flow. We found that rock fragments obstruct water flow along the slope. The groundwater table must be raised to provide a sufficient pore water pressure gradient to facilitate water flow, but higher pore water pressure may induce slope failure. We also conducted a bench‐scale laboratory flume experiment to examine the effects of impermeable blocks on downstream seepage flow. In addition, a numerical experiment was conducted to examine how different arrangements of impermeable blocks affect downstream seepage flow and pore water pressure. This research demonstrated that the hydraulic phenomena were affected when impermeable blocks were present, and pore water pressure increased as the position of impermeable blocks was lowered. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

船行波对H-ADCP 影响分析研究

作为当今世界上最先进的测流仪器，水平式声学多普勒流速剖面仪（Horizontal Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler，H-ADCP） 因其精度高、速度快等突出优势在河流中的应用越来越广泛，但在航运业发达地区，由于受船行波的影响，很难得到稳定可靠的流速数据，阻碍了H-ADCP在平原河网地区的应用和推广。目前技术上很难做到完全消除船行波的影响，本文将H-ADCP应用在平原河网地区对流速进行测量，并分析了船行波对测量精度的影响。从H-ADCP设备选型、测量和安装方式、测量预处理、数据后处理等多方面入手，可以有效消减船行波对H-ADCP 的影响，从而提高测流精度。同时，通过实验测量断面一天内平均流速变化情况，得到受船行波影响后的流速波形，然后采用数据处理手段，验证了所提方法的可行性。     

Lateral flow thresholds for aspen forested hillslopes on the Western Boreal Plain,Alberta, Canada

To predict the long‐term sustainability of water resources on the Boreal Plain region of northern Alberta, it is critical to understand when hillslopes generate runoff and connect with surface waters. The sub‐humid climate (P ≤ ET) and deep glacial sediments of this region result in large available soil storage capacity relative to moisture surpluses or deficits, leading to threshold‐dependent rainfall‐runoff relationships. Rainfall simulation experiments were conducted using large magnitude and high intensity applications to examine the thresholds in precipitation and soil moisture that are necessary to generate lateral flow from hillslope runoff plots representative of Luvisolic soils and an aspen canopy. Two adjacent plots (areas of 2·95 and 3·4 m²) of contrasting antecedent moisture conditions were examined; one had tree root uptake excluded for two months to increase soil moisture content, while the second plot allowed tree uptake over the growing season resulting in drier soils. Vertical flow as drainage and soil moisture storage dominated the water balances of both plots. Greater lateral flow occurred from the plot with higher antecedent moisture content. Results indicate that a minimum of 15–20 mm of rainfall is required to generate lateral flow, and only after the soils have been wetted to a depth of 0·75 m (C‐horizon). The depth and intensity of rainfall events that generated runoff > 1 mm have return periods of 25 years or greater and, when combined with the need for wet antecendent conditions, indicate that lateral flow generation on these hillslopes will occur infrequently. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The generation and redistribution of overland flow on a massive oxic soil in a eucalypt woodland within the semi-arid tropics of North Australia

There is a dearth of knowledge on the runoff processes of eucalypt woodland communities in the semi-arid tropics of Australia. The work was undertaken on a 100 m transect of a 0·8 degree hillslope typical of the ‘smooth plainlands’ of central-north Queensland. This paper introduces a new experimental design for measuring overland flow in such areas by way of a cascade system of unbounded runoff plots which allow the inputs and outputs between troughs to be calculated. Most storms generate overland flow. Time to overland flow ranges between 1 and 18 min where rain intensities are above 10mm hr⁻¹ and when the average detention storage of 3·6 mm is exceeded. The bare soil surfaces within the scattered grass understory control the runoff generation process through the temporal variability of field saturated hydraulic conductivity. The study demonstrated that overland flow is mainly redistributed over the freely-draining oxic soil. Some areas export more overland flow than they gain from upslope (runoff), others gain more overland flow than they export (runon). Over the study period only 2 per cent of total rain is transferred out of this 100 m transect as overland flow due to the short duration of storms, the relatively high soil permeability, and the low slope angle. The remainder adds to the large soil water store or deep drainage. The variability of runoff–runon over these ‘smooth plainlands’ highlights how results from bounded plots would be misleading in such areas.