Risk assessment of the impact of pyroclastic currents on the towns located around Vesuvio: a non-linear structural inverse analysis

In a.d. 79, the catastrophic eruption of Vesuvio, which later was described in two famous letters by Pliny the Younger to Tacitus the Historian, destroyed Pompeii, Hercolaneum, Oplontis and Stabiae, resulting in many thousand of victims. After a few hours of the eruption, the several-kilometre-high volcanic column began to collapse, provoking strong air shocks as well as destructive pyroclastic density currents, which travelled down the volcano slopes. In 2000, an archaeological excavation survey, which was performed on the east slope of the volcano in the Terzigno–Vesuvio area at a distance of about 5 km from the vent, brought to light the ruins of several Roman villas that were completely destroyed by these currents during the a.d. 79 eruption. The present paper proposes a new structural analysis, which starts from the study of the damage produced on partially collapsed masonry walls, and determines the dynamic pressures of the currents that overran this site. The non-linear structural analysis, which is based on strength values obtained by means of experimental tests, is of the 'inverse type' and takes into account the limit behaviour of the ancient Roman masonry. The values of the dynamic pressures that were capable of producing the collapse of the masonry walls were obtained by utilising a modern limit analysis theory. The obtained results show that dynamic pressures of a few kPa (1–5) were able to cause masonry buildings to collapse. These values are consistent with those proposed in some of the latest volcanological studies made by numerical simulations of pyroclastic flow propagation. It is shown here that these dynamic pressures are even able to determine the collapse of both modern reinforced concrete and masonry wall buildings that are largely present in the area. Therefore, in possible future eruptions, dynamic pressures of this magnitude would flatten a large urbanised area, where ~700,000 people are currently living. The obtained results give a better definition of both the risk to pyroclastic currents in possible Vesuvio eruptions and provide new guidelines for construction in the neighbouring zones.Editorial responsibility: A. Woods     

Evolution mechanism of the western Pacific subtropical high

Ever since Charney et al.[1] studied the multiple equilibrium states in atmosphere with highly truncated spectral method in 1979, many Chinese researchers, such as Li Maicun et al. (1983)[2], Liu Chongjian et al. (1983)[3], Miu Jinhai et al. (1985)[4] and…     

Conditioning mean steady state flow on hydraulic head and conductivity through geostatistical inversion

Nonlocal moment equations allow one to render deterministically optimum predictions of flow in randomly heterogeneous media and to assess predictive uncertainty conditional on measured values of medium properties. We present a geostatistical inverse algorithm for steady-state flow that makes it possible to further condition such predictions and assessments on measured values of hydraulic head (and/or flux). Our algorithm is based on recursive finite-element approximations of exact first and second conditional moment equations. Hydraulic conductivity is parameterized via universal kriging based on unknown values at pilot points and (optionally) measured values at other discrete locations. Optimum unbiased inverse estimates of natural log hydraulic conductivity, head and flux are obtained by minimizing a residual criterion using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. We illustrate the method for superimposed mean uniform and convergent flows in a bounded two-dimensional domain. Our examples illustrate how conductivity and head data act separately or jointly to reduce parameter estimation errors and model predictive uncertainty.This work is supported in part by NSF/ITR Grant EAR-0110289. The first author was additionally supported by scholarships from CONACYT and Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas of Mexico. Additional support was provided by the European Commission under Contract EVK1-CT-1999-00041 (W-SAHaRA-Stochastic Analysis of Well Head Protection and Risk Assessment).     

GIS-based hazard mapping and zonation of debris flows in Xiaojiang Basin,southwestern China

Debris flow sites were identified at 140 locations in the Xiaojiang Basin in Yunnan province, southwestern China. Their spatial distribution and catchment characteristics are described in detail on the basis of previous research, air photo interpretation, field investigation and mapping using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Using a statistical approach, a quantitative model of hazards assessment and zonation was developed through synthesis analysis of basin areas, gradients, and the relative reliefs of these debris flow sites. In terms of debris flow hazard assessment, areas within the Xiaojiang Basin can be classified as severe, heavy and light hazard regions.     

大地热流对中国西部环境与生态演变的影响及其研究意义

中国西部地区生态环境的优劣与大地热流的高低有良好的对应关系。大地热流较高的西南地区生态环境优良,孕育了我国最好的生物多样性;而大地热流较低的西北地区环境恶劣,生态脆弱,荒漠化严重。大地热流的脉动影响区域大气系统下垫面的热力背景和气流运动,从而影响降水的分布和区域气候的干湿程度;大地热流的高低决定了一个地区地表生态系统能量供给的下限,是生态系统演变过程中一个重要的物种限制因子,制约了一些地区生态系统物种的多样性,进而影响到区域生态系统的稳健性。对大地热流影响生态系统发育和演变机理的研究将为人类科学干预地表生态系统的演化、恢复与重建退化生态系统提供科学依据与技术方案。提出了西部生态环境整治的一些新的思路。     

塔里木与扬子新元古代热-构造事件特征、序列和时代——扬子与塔里木连接(YZ-TAR)假设

淄博市大武水源地是中国北方罕见的特大型岩溶-裂隙地下水水源地,地下水开采量为52×10~4m~3/d。为了对岩溶地下水进行有效监测,需要建立最优的地下水监测网。文中在对岩溶地下水流系统分析的基础上,建立了地下水流系统确定性-随机性数学模型,运用有限元与卡尔曼滤波耦合的模拟递推算法,对大武水源地地下水监测网进行了优化设计,结果显示:现有地下水位动态监测网难以达到监测目标,最优地下水位监测网由14个监测井,每月监测一次的监测频率组成,比现有地下水位监测网减少了2个监测井。     

Application of swat model in the upstream watershed of the Luohe River

1INTRODUCTIONIntheHuanghe(Yellow) Riverbasin, soilerosionisaseriousproblem,whilerunoffandsedimentyieldsim-ulation hasnotbeenextensivelystudiedonthebasisofGIS(GeographicInformationSystem) and dis-tributedhydrologicalmodel.Inthisstudy,theLushiwatershed,whichislocatedattheupstreamoftheLushiHydrologicalStationintheLuoheRiver—thebiggesttributary oftheHuanghe Riveranddown-streamofXiaolangdiDam,isselectedasthestudyarea.ThelevelofsoilerosioninLushiwatershedismoderatein theHuangheRiverbas…     

地面感热对青藏高原低涡流场结构及发展的作用

考虑热带气旋类青藏高原低涡为受加热和摩擦强迫并满足热成风平衡的轴对称涡旋系统,通过求解线性化的柱坐标系中涡旋模式的初值问题,分析了地面感热对高原低涡流场结构及发展的影响,给出了高原低涡眼壁内、外侧水平流场和垂直流场的结构特征,讨论了低涡发展与其水平尺度、垂直厚度、所处纬度以及热量总体输送系数和加热强度的关系.结果表明:地面感热对低涡的生成及发展具有重要作用,但这种作用是否有利于低涡的发展与低涡中心和感热加热中心的配置有关.     

Groundwater flow and solute transport at the Mourquong saline-water disposal basin, Murray Basin, southeastern Australia

Saline groundwater and drainage effluent from irrigation are commonly stored in some 200 natural and artificial saline-water disposal basins throughout the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia. Their impact on underlying aquifers and the River Murray, one of Australia's major water supplies, is of serious concern. In one such scheme, saline groundwater is pumped into Lake Mourquong, a natural groundwater discharge complex. The disposal basin is hydrodynamically restricted by low-permeability lacustrine clays, but there are vulnerable areas in the southeast where the clay is apparently missing. The extent of vertical and lateral leakage of basin brines and the processes controlling their migration are examined using (1) analyses of chloride and stable isotopes of water (²H/¹H and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O) to infer mixing between regional groundwater and lake water, and (2) the variable-density groundwater flow and solute-transport code SUTRA. Hydrochemical results indicate that evaporated disposal water has moved at least 100 m in an easterly direction and that there is negligible movement of brines in a southerly direction towards the River Murray. The model is used to consider various management scenarios. Salt-load movement to the River Murray was highest in a "worst-case" scenario with irrigation employed between the basin and the River Murray. Present-day operating conditions lead to little, if any, direct movement of brine from the basin into the river. Electronic Publication     

Analysis of A New Model for Unsaturated Flow in Porous Media Including Hysteresis and Dynamic Effects

A new model for unsaturated flow in porous media, including capillary hysteresis and dynamic capillary effects, is analyzed. Existence and uniqueness of solutions are established and qualitative and quantitative properties of (particular) solutions are analyzed. Some results of numerical computations are given. The model under consideration incorporates simple play-type hysteresis and a dynamic term (time-derivative with respect to water content) in the capillary relation. Given an initial water content distribution, the model determines which parts of the flow domain are in drainage and which parts are in imbibition. The governing equations can be recast into an elliptic problem for fluid pressure and an evolution equation for water content. Standard methods are used to obtain numerical results. A comparison is given between J.R. Philip's semi-explicit similarity solution for horizontal redistribution in an infinite one-dimensional domain and solutions of the new model.