Progress in the Application of Ground Gravity Observation Data in Earthquake Prediction

The mechanism of earthquake inoculation and the process of earthquake occurrence are very complicated. Additionally, earthquakes do not happen very often, and we lack enough cognition to the earth’s interior structure, activity regularity and other key elements. As a result, research progress about the theory of earthquake precursors has been greatly restricted. Ground gravity observation has become one of the main ways to study earthquake precursor information in many countries and regions. This paper briefly summarized the surface gravity observation technology and observation network in China: the surface gravity measurement instrument developed from Huygens physical pendulum in seventeenth Century to today’s high-precision absolute gravimeter, and its accuracy reached to ±1×10^-8 m/s². China has successively established the National Gravity Network, Digital Earthquake Observation Network of China,the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China Ⅰ and the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China, to provide a public platform for monitoring non tidal gravity change, seismic gravity and tectonic movement. The use of specific examples illustrated the role of gravity observation data in earthquake prediction. The gravity observation data of ground gravity can be used to capture the information of gravity change in the process of strong earthquake inoculation, and to provide an important basis for the long-term prediction of strong earthquakes. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the regional gravity field and its relation to strong earthquakes were analyzed: Before the earthquake whose magnitude is higher than M_S 5, generally there will be a large amplitude and range of gravity anomaly zones. Strong earthquakes occur mainly in areas where the gravity field changes violently. The dynamic change images of gravity field can clearly reflect the precursory information of large earthquakes during the inoculation and occurrence. Finally, the existing problems of surface gravity technology in earthquake precursor observation were put forward and the use of gravity measurement data in earthquake prediction research was prospected.     

冻土机械切削破碎机理的研究进展

冻土开挖困难、破碎效率低是高寒地区工程建设、地基施工等面临的技术难题。冻土机械切削破碎是冻土开挖的主要方法,其机理研究是提高冻土破碎效率的前提和基础。首先总结了温度、含水率、围压等对冻土复杂力学特性的影响,进而调研分析了冻土机械切削破碎的典型切削力学模型,发现冻土切削机械破碎模式不仅与冻土力学特性密切相关,也与切削参数和刀具结构直接相关,冻土切削过程中存在着最优的切削前角（30°~60°）,且深切削和浅切削时冻土内部受力方式存在差异也会导致破坏形式的不同;温度、含水率、围压所造成的冻土力学性能变化会直接导致冻土破坏过程和切削破碎机理的改变,冻土强度随着温度降低表现出先升高然后保持稳定的特性,随着含水率升高呈现出先升高后降低的趋势,冻土破碎存在脆性、塑脆过渡及塑性等不同破坏形式。通过系统总结冻土切削破碎机理研究进展,进一步明确了冻土力学性质主要影响因素、变化特点及其切削破坏损伤特征,为冻土机械切削破碎的切削参数和切削具结构优化提供了设计依据。     

新疆阿尔泰可可托海伟晶岩型稀有金属矿床中磷灰石地球化学特征及意义

磷灰石可以记录和保存岩浆和热液活动的信息。可可托海伟晶岩型稀有金属矿床磷灰石发育,为研究该矿床伟晶岩成岩成矿过程提供了优良的条件。已有对可可托海伟晶岩型稀有金属矿床磷灰石的研究集中在其稀土元素特征,较少讨论其对伟晶岩成岩成矿过程的制约。本文选取可可托海伟晶岩型稀有金属矿床富矿伟晶岩脉(3号脉)和相对贫矿伟晶岩脉(1号、2b号和3a号脉)中的磷灰石作为研究对象,进行磷灰石岩相学和地球化学研究。岩相学分析表明,磷灰石主要与钠长石、石英、白云母、锰铝榴石等伴生。EPMA分析显示,磷灰石F含量为3.67%～4.41%,Cl含量小于0.67%,较低的Cl含量表明伟晶岩熔体出溶的流体Cl含量较低;大部分磷灰石MnO含量为4.67%～8.71%,但2b号脉磷灰石MnO含量变化较大(1.23%～14.28%),这是由于2b号脉磷灰石具有分带结构,暗示其遭受后期热液作用,促使磷灰石溶解-再沉淀,导致MnO含量发生较大变化。LA-ICP-MS分析显示,贫矿伟晶岩脉磷灰石的稀土元素含量较低(180×10~(-6));相反,富矿伟晶岩脉磷灰石的稀土元素含量较高( 700×10~(-6)),并具有明显的四分组效应(TE_(1-3)平均值为1.7)。1号脉和3a号脉磷灰石均显示轻稀土元素富集,反映其形成过程中有含Cl热液的参与。3号脉磷灰石显示强烈Eu负异常和Ce正异常,而2b号脉磷灰石显示强烈Ce负异常和中等Eu负异常,这种Eu、Ce异常的差异可能与岩浆-热液阶段大量流体出溶密切相关。磷灰石的沉淀将导致热液中HF含量的降低,促使磷灰石周围铌钽矿结晶和Nb、Ta进入磷灰石中。可见,在伟晶岩形成过程中,磷灰石并非保持稳定,其分带结构和主微量成分变化记录了后期热液活动,暗示后期热液活动对伟晶岩的成矿具有重要作用。     

松嫩盆地北部林甸地热田供暖尾水处理试验

将混入污染物和杂质的地热尾水直接排向地表水体,会造成水、土环境污染,也会造成水资源的浪费。为高效减少地热尾水中污染物,实现供暖地热尾水的无害化排放,以林甸县花园镇供暖地热尾水为例,通过混凝沉淀、超滤、纳滤工艺开展供暖尾水处理的室内实验和中试试验研究,连续监测获取地热尾水各处理工艺运行参数,组合工艺稳定运行期间监测到溶解性总固体浓度由5 824.7 mg/L降为432.40 mg/L、氯化物浓度由3 010.13 mg/L降为194.16 mg/L、氟化物浓度由1.57 mg/L降为0.31 mg/L、硼浓度由4.04 mg/L降为1.62 mg/L。确定该区地热尾水处理的最佳组合工艺为采用超滤运行压力为0.1 MPa,纳滤膜为陶氏NF90,操作压力为0.60 MPa,进水量为0.8 m3/h。室内实验溶解性总固体去除率90.21%～92.49%,氯化物去除率91.63%～93.02%,氟化物去除率96.81%,硼去除率55.20%～55.69%。中试试验溶解性总固体去除率为92.62%;氯化物浓度200 mg/L,氯化物去除率为92.57%;硼浓度1.77 mg/L,硼去除率为55.7%,以上实验结果均达到相关规范标准。试验证明本工艺处理松嫩盆地北部林甸地热田供暖尾水是可行的,解决了供暖尾水处理中资源浪费和尾水回收利用的技术性问题,为地热资源可持续利用提供了新的途径。     

金沙江“11·3”白格堰塞湖溃决洪水事件在奔子栏—石鼓段的地貌作用和沉积特征

古堰塞湖溃决洪水事件的重建是当前地学研究的热点问题之一,寻找足够的可参考的现代溃决洪水事件案例是顺利开展这项工作的基础。2018年11月13日发生在金沙江干流的白格堰塞湖超万年一遇的溃决洪水事件(学术界称之为“11·3”白格堰塞湖溃决洪水事件)就是一个难得的样本。这次溃决事件发生在枯水期,洪峰完全由溃决洪水产生,没有叠加其他来源,对评估流域地貌和沉积体系对堰塞溃决事件的响应有很好的参考价值。本文以溃决洪水事件受灾最为严重的奔子栏—石鼓段为研究区,通过详细的野外调查和初步的水力学估算发现“11·3”白格堰塞湖溃决洪水事件在奔子栏—石鼓段的地貌作用主要表现为洪水淹没区的岸坡塌岸和沉积物堆积,未发现明显的基岩侵蚀。沉积物主要由分选良好的具水平纹层的砂组成。受金沙江较低的河床比降影响,洪水产生的基底剪切应力较弱在27~142 N/m²,不能悬浮和搬运直径5 cm以上的砾石,也不能产生明显的磨蚀和冲(撞)击作用。在发生塌岸的部分段落,洪水沉积物中有砾石坠入,甚至会出现类似浊流沉积的层序。这些现象的发现对深入理解堰塞湖溃决洪水的复杂地貌过程和沉积特征有重要参考意义。     

Representation and participation in formulating Nepal’s REDD+ approach

ABSTRACT

REDD+ is an international policy aimed at incentivizing forest conservation and management and improving forest governance. In this article, we interrogate how newly articulated REDD+ governance processes established to guide the formulation of Nepal’s REDD+ approach address issues of participation for different social groups. Specifically, we analyse available forums of participation for different social groups, as well as the nature of their representation and degree of participation during the country’s REDD+ preparedness phase. We find that spaces for participation and decision-making in REDD+ have been to date defined and dominated by government actors and influential civil society groups, whereas the influence of other actors, particularly marginalized groups such as Dalits and women’s organizations, have remained limited. REDD+ has also resulted in a reduction of influence for some hitherto powerful actors (e.g. community forestry activists) and constrained their critical voice. These governance weaknesses related to misrepresentation and uneven power relations in Nepal cast doubt on the extent to which procedural justice has been promoted through REDD+ and imply that implementation may, as a consequence, lack the required social legitimacy and support. We discuss possible ways to address these shortcomings, such as granting greater prominence to neglected civil society forums within the REDD+ process, allowing for an increase in their influence on policy design, enhancing capacity and leadership of marginalized groups and institutionalizing participation through continued forest governance reform.

Key policy insights

• Participation is a critical asset in public policy design.

• Ensuring wide and meaningful participation can enhance policy legitimacy and thus its endorsement and potential effective implementation.

• Fostering inclusive processes through dedicated forums such as multi-stakeholder groups can help overcome power dynamics.

• While REDD+ is open to participation by different actors through a variety of formal means, many countries lack a clear framework for participation in national policy processes.

• Nepal’s experience with representation and participation of non-state actors in its REDD+ preparedness programme provides useful insights for similar social and policy contexts.

     

鄂尔多斯盆地CO2地质封存适宜性与潜力评价

针对目前利用层次分析法对CO₂地质封存进行适宜性评价过程中,极少结合研究区域实际计算低层次评价指标权重,对适宜性评价结果又缺少进一步的分析,结合鄂尔多斯盆地的地质特征,通过计算指标组成权重和适宜性得分对盆地开展了CO₂地质封存适宜性评价,并以适宜区杏子川油田长4+5盖层为例,开展了盖层封闭性评价实验研究。同时,采用相应的计算方法对鄂尔多斯盆地深部咸水层和油藏的CO₂地质封存潜力进行了计算。结果表明：鄂尔多斯盆地在三叠系开展CO₂地质封存的适宜性最好,石炭-二叠系和奥陶系则次之;杏子川油田三叠系延长组长4+5盖层对区域开展CO₂地质封存具备良好的封闭性;鄂尔多斯盆地深部咸水层和油藏的CO₂有效封存量分别为1.33×10 ¹⁰ t和1.91×10 ⁹ t,且在延长石油吴起、靖边及杏子川油田共有56个CO₂地质封存适宜区,其CO₂有效封存量可达1.77×10 ⁸ t。     

内蒙古东北部地区一次极端降雪过程的水汽输送特征

利用内蒙古呼伦贝尔市常规观测资料和GDAS、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用欧拉方法分析了2016年春季内蒙古东北部地区一次极端暴雪过程的水汽输送及收支特征,利用HYSPLIT模式和聚类分析模拟计算了此次暴雪天气过程的水汽源地、主要水汽输送通道及其对水汽输送的贡献,并与传统的欧拉方法结果进行对比。结果表明:(1)有3支不同源地的水汽流在内蒙古东北部地区交汇,对呼伦贝尔地区暴雪的发生与维持有重要影响;(2)经向和纬向输送为此次暴雪天气的发生提供了充足的水汽,暴雪区水汽主要源于中高层的南边界和随西风气流的西边界;(3)利用HYSPLIT模式模拟发现,在此次暴雪天气过程中水汽主要来源于新地岛以西洋面、日本海以及巴尔喀什湖,且三者贡献率大致相当。     

苏州市一次重霾污染天气过程的数值模拟

本文对苏州地区2015年12月13—15日发生的一次典型的重霾污染天气过程进行了数值模拟,分析了颗粒物及其组分的时空变化特征及其气象影响因子,以期为该区域空气污染治理和预防提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)利用WRF-Chem模式对此次重霾污染天气过程的污染气体成分进行数值模拟后发现,小时平均的PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、CO、SO_2、NO_2模拟值与实测值的相关系数较高,达到0.68以上,通过了P0.01的显著性检验,且日变化过程对应也较好。(2)通过分析此次污染过程的天气背景,发现污染形成期高空环流比较平直,中层为均匀的弱高压控制,地面受弱高压脊控制,这种形势容易导致颗粒物的堆积。后期地面等压线密集时,风速大,有利于污染物的输送与扩散。(3)通过分析此次污染过程期间气象要素的变化发现,有逆温、风速小、相对湿度大等不利的气象条件是导致此次污染过程发生的重要原因之一。(4)HYSPLIT轨迹分析显示,此次重霾过程主要受北方大范围灰霾颗粒物南下影响,北方污染气团逐步南推,14至15日本地大气扩散条件差、污染物累积,最终导致本地污染加重,从而发生重霾事件。(5)火点图的分布进一步验证了此次重霾污染过程是由外来污染气团输入所导致。     

黄河源区多、少雪年土壤冻融特征分析

利用2011年10月至2017年12月黄河源区鄂陵湖野外观测数据,对比分析多雪年与少雪年土壤冻结与消融时间、土壤温湿度、地表能量分量的变化特征。结果表明:多雪年地表反照率偏高,净辐射偏低,地表感热输送偏低,土壤由热“源”转为热“汇”的时间晚于少雪年。积雪可减少土壤吸收辐射能量,减少地表感热通量,在土壤完全冻结期与消融期增大地表潜热通量,在完全冻结期,减少土壤向大气的热输送,在消融期,减少大气向土壤的热输送。积雪在冻结期有降温作用,使得多雪年土壤较早发生冻结,且同一时期土壤温度偏低;在完全冻结期有保温作用,使得土壤温度偏高;在消融期有保温(“凉”)作用,使得消融较晚,且同一时期土壤温度偏低。在整个积雪年内,多雪年浅层土壤湿度高于少雪年,积雪对浅层土壤有保湿作用。积雪使土壤开始冻结时间有所提前,开始消融的时间有所滞后,可延长该年土壤完全冻结持续天数。