Flood frequency analysis of Turkey using L‐moments method

The index flood procedure coupled with the L‐moments method is applied to the annual flood peaks data taken at all stream‐gauging stations in Turkey having at least 15‐year‐long records. First, screening of the data is done based on the discordancy measure (D_i) in terms of the L‐moments. Homogeneity of the total geographical area of Turkey is tested using the L‐moments based heterogeneity measure, H, computed on 500 simulations generated using the four parameter Kappa distribution. The L‐moments analysis of the recorded annual flood peaks data at 543 gauged sites indicates that Turkey as a whole is hydrologically heterogeneous, and 45 of 543 gauged sites are discordant which are discarded from further analyses. The catchment areas of these 543 sites vary from 9·9 to 75121 km² and their mean annual peak floods vary from 1·72 to 3739·5 m³ s^?1. The probability distributions used in the analyses, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method are the general extreme values (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type III (PE3), generalized Pareto (GPA), and five‐parameter Wakeby (WAK). Based on the L‐moment ratio diagrams and the |Z_dist|‐statistic criteria, the GEV distribution is identified as the robust distribution for the study area (498 gauged sites). Hence, for estimation of flood magnitudes of various return periods in Turkey, a regional flood frequency relationship is developed using the GEV distribution. Next, the quantiles computed at all of 543 gauged sites by the GEV and the Wakeby distributions are compared with the observed values of the same probability based on two criteria, mean absolute relative error and determination coefficient. Results of these comparisons indicate that both distributions of GEV and Wakeby, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method, are adequate in predicting quantile estimates. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

唐代治乱分期与气候变化的关系*

将唐代定量划分为治世与乱世5个时期,探讨了唐代治乱分期与气候变化的关系。治世、乱世的划分标准参考一套系统的战争数据集,并用单因素方差分析的方法验证各项数据指标在治世与乱世间的差异性,从而说明唐代治世、乱世分期的合理性。治世、乱世分期结果如下: 公元618—626年为乱世,公元627—742年为治世,公元743—784年为乱世,公元785—859年为治世,公元860—907年为乱世。方差分析的结果显示,除了总边境战争外,气候变化、总战争、反叛战争、进攻型边境战争、防御型边境战争、农业丰歉等级和人口增长率在治世与乱世之间均表现出显著差异。用战争定量体现唐代社会治世、乱世变化,探讨气候变化与社会治、乱的关系即是探讨气候变化与战争的关系,乱世的主要战争类型是反叛战争和防御型边境战争,治世的主要战争类型是进攻型边境战争。相关分析结果表明,唐代温度降低、降水减少的时期,农业收成减少导致资源供给不足,更容易发生反叛战争;温度暖期、降水充沛的时期,农业产量提高,刺激了快速增长的人口,在技术改善能力有限、土地资源一定的情况下,更易发生以对外扩张为目的的边境战争,因此气候变化是影响唐代社会治乱变化的重要原因之一。     

青藏高原东北部甘加盆地古梯田地层与年代初探

梯田是人类几千年来利用和改造自然能力的象征,在人类社会发展中发挥了重要的作用。甘加盆地位于青藏高原东北部甘肃省夏河县,盆地内的丘陵、山麓地带分布大面积的层状梯形景观,疑似弃耕的古代梯田。本文在实地考察的基础上,基于卫星遥感资料,通过GIS手段分析发现古梯田面积为42.2 km²（约63000亩）,主要分布在盆地内央曲河及其支流两侧海拔2936~3326 m间的山坡上。通过对3个古梯田剖面样品的磁化率、总有机碳/氮（TOC、TN）含量、孢粉、粒度等环境代用指标分析,同时对比具有准确年代控制的自然剖面磁化率与粒度。研究结果显示：梯田开垦于晚全新世（距今3000 a）古土壤,梯田剖面顶部25~35 cm不同于自然剖面而呈均一化的指标证实了耕作层的存在（距今约1000 a以下层位）;但耕作层之上TOC、TN含量的增多,以及梯田剖面与自然剖面整体一致的指标变化趋势说明了梯田被短期利用后长期废弃;结合历史文献资料推断夏河古梯田是在北宋“弓箭手屯田”制度（1074—1125年）下开垦的;气候重建资料显示该时段温度较高、降水增加,整体有益于农业生产。本文提供了过去人类社会适应气候变化的典型案例。     

基于恒速压汞技术研究页岩气储层孔隙结构:以湘西北地区五峰组页岩为例

页岩气储层孔隙结构是页岩气富集成藏、储层评价和优选有利区的关键参数,区分孔隙和喉道是表征页岩气储层孔隙结构的关键。本文选择4块具有不同渗透率的湘西北地区奥陶系五峰组页岩为研究对象,基于恒速压汞实验讨论孔隙和喉道的大小、分布特征及其相互关系以及与渗透率的联系。结果表明:具有不同渗透率的页岩样品表现为较为相近的孔径分布特征但差异较大的喉道分布特征。页岩样品渗透率的大小与孔隙半径没有明显相关关系;喉道大小及其分布特征是控制低渗储层孔隙结构的关键要素之一。渗透率较低页岩样品的喉道以喉道半径小且集中分布为特征,而渗透率较大页岩样品的喉道以喉道半径大呈分散分布但主要以大喉道为特征。喉道特征是研究页岩气储层储集空间和吸附能力的重要部分,在以后对页岩气的勘探开发中应特别注意及重视。     

Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity

Abstract

The estimation and review of discharge flow rates in hydraulic works is a fundamental problem in water management. In the case of dams with large regulating capacity, in order to estimate return periods of discharge flow rates from the spillways, it becomes necessary to consider both peak flow and volume of the incoming floods. In this paper, the results of the validation for several methods of assessing design floods for spillways of dams with a large flood control capacity are presented; the validation is performed by comparing the maximum outflows (or the maximum levels reached in the reservoir) obtained from the routing of the design floods with those obtained from the routing of the historical annual maximum floods. The basin of Malpaso Dam, Mexico, is used as the case study.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Domínguez, M.R. and Arganis, J.M.L., 2012. Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 460–478.     

吉林中部石炭系岩石建造及其构造环境

吉林中部石炭系出露较全，具有独特的区域大地构造环境，在吉林晚古生代褶皱带演化中具有特殊性。本文将吉中石炭系划分为６个岩石建造，每一建造各具特征，并以岩石建造为手段，进行区域大地构造分析，认为该区石灰纪是在弧后一大陆边缘基础上形成的裂谷一拗陷带的构造环境，具有由先期裂谷发展阶段转变为末期拗陷带的演化过程，从而表明该区石炭纪为一拉张的构造历史时期。     

川西石棉地区田湾与扁路岗岩体的锆石U-Pb定年

对扬子板块西缘石棉地区田湾闪长岩体与扁路岗花岗岩体开展了精细的单颗粒锆石Ｕ－Ｐｂ年代学研究。测试结果表明,田湾岩体中锆石的结晶年龄为８２３Ｍａ±１２Ｍａ,扁路岗岩体中锆石的结晶年龄为８７６Ｍａ±４０Ｍａ,表明石棉地区与扬子板块西缘其他地区一样,晋宁期岩浆活动也是相当强烈的。     

中国碲矿成矿规律概要

富金斑岩-矽卡岩矿床产出了大部分碲资源,其他类型碲矿资源时空分布规律暂未明确。在全国矿产资源潜力动态评价项目开展过程中,本文对中国碲矿资源特征、碲矿类型、时空分布进行分析与归纳,初步总结了中国碲矿成矿规律。本文对中国碲矿的资源特征进行了介绍;收集了全国45个含碲矿床的资料,将中国碲矿分为碱性-偏碱性侵入岩型、卡林-类卡林型、浅成低温热液型、斑岩-矽卡岩型、造山型、铜镍硫化物型6大预测类型;将碲矿形成时代分为元古宙、古生代、中生代、新生代4个成矿期,划分了9个碲成矿带,即吉黑、华北陆块西缘、华北陆块北缘、辽东、秦岭、苏鲁、长江中下游、三江、南岭成矿带;厘定出34个与碲矿有关的成矿系列,建立了中国碲矿成矿谱系。综合研究所得,中国碲矿以晚古生代和中生代华北和东北地区的浅成低温热液型、斑岩-矽卡岩型、铜镍硫化物型矿床,小秦岭-熊耳山地区的造山型矿床,长江中下游和滇川黔地区的斑岩-矽卡岩型、铜镍硫化物型矿床为主。     

Wave run-up and overtopping on smooth and rough slopes of coastal structures

A series of hydraulic model tests has been carried out in a glass wave flume to investigate the influences of wave height, wave period, wave steepness, surf similarity parameter, roughness, layer thickness and porosity on wave run-up and overtopping of 1:2 sloped impermeable and permeable breakwaters fronted by a 1:10 gentle, smooth beach slope. The analysis of results involves the correlation between the overtopping energy transfer with the relative wall height and the relationship between wave run-up and overtopping rate. Further, measured wave run-up and overtopping rates are compared with the results given in the Shore Protection Manual (1984), Automated Coastal Engineering System (1992)and results of other investigators.     

汕头市历史地震影响烈度的分析

本文将所论地震事件视为随机事件。按全概率定理分析了地震对场地的地震动影响(A)和超越给定值的概率P:对地震烈度序列进行了极值统计分析,得到汕头市地震平均重现期及其对应的烈度值。