Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A GLUE‐based uncertainty assessment framework for tritium‐inferred transit time estimations under baseflow conditions

The last decade has seen major technical and scientific improvements in the study of water transfer time through catchments. Nevertheless, it has been argued that most of these developments used conservative tracers that may disregard the oldest component of water transfer, which often has transit times greater than 5 years. Indeed, although the analytical reproducibility of tracers limits the detection of the older flow components associated with the most dampened seasonal fluctuations, this is very rarely taken into account in modelling applications. Tritium is the only environmental tracer at hand to investigate transfer times in the 5‐ to 50‐year range in surface waters, as dissolved gases are not suitable due to the degassing process. Water dating with tritium has often been difficult because of the complex history of its atmospheric concentration, but its current stabilization together with recent analytical improvements open promising perspectives. In this context, the innovative contribution of this study lies in the development of a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation‐based approach for analysing the uncertainties associated with the modelling of transit time due to both parameter identification and tracer analytical precision issues. A coupled resampling procedure allows assessment of the statistical significance of the transfer time differences found in diverse waters. This approach was developed for tritium and the exponential‐piston model but can be implemented for virtually any tracer and model. Stream baseflow, spring and shallow aquifer waters from the Vallcebre research catchments, analysed for tritium in different years with different analytical precisions, were investigated by using this approach and taking into account other sources of uncertainty. The results showed three groups of waters of different mean transit times, with all the stream baseflow and spring waters older than the 5‐year threshold needing tritium. Low sensitivity of the results to the model structure was also demonstrated. Dual solutions were found for the waters sampled in 2013, but these results may be disambiguated when additional analyses will be made in a few years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inversion of multicomponent seismic time shifts for reservoir pressure and length: a feasibility study

Pressure drops associated with reservoir production generate excess stress and strain that cause travel‐time shifts of reflected waves. Here, we invert time shifts of P‐, S‐, and PS‐waves measured between baseline and monitor surveys for pressure reduction and reservoir length. The inversion results can be used to estimate compaction‐induced stress and strain changes around the reservoir. We implement a hybrid inversion algorithm that incorporates elements of gradient, global/genetic, and nearest neighbour methods and permits exploration of the parameter space while simultaneously following local misfit gradients. Our synthetic examples indicate that optimal estimates of reservoir pressure from P‐wave data can be obtained using the reflections from the reservoir top. For S‐waves, time shifts from the top of the reservoir can be accurately inverted for pressure if the noise level is low. However, if noise contamination is significant, it is preferable to use S‐wave data (or combined shifts of all three modes) from reflectors beneath the reservoir. Joint wave type inversions demonstrate improvements over any single pure mode. Reservoir length can be estimated using the time shifts of any mode from the reservoir top or deeper reflectors. We also evaluate the differences between the actual strain field and those corresponding to the best‐case inversion results obtained using P‐ and S‐wave data. Another series of tests addresses the inversion of the time shifts for the pressure drops in two‐compartment reservoirs, as well as for the associated strain field. Numerical testing shows that a potentially serious source of error in the inversion is a distortion in the strain‐sensitivity coefficients, which govern the magnitude of stiffness changes. This feasibility study suggests which wave types and reflector locations may provide the most accurate estimates of reservoir parameters from compaction‐induced time shifts.     

Common‐shot Fresnel beam migration based on wave‐field approximation in effective vicinity under complex topographic conditions

Gaussian beam migration is a versatile imaging method for geologically complex land areas, which overcomes the limitation of Kirchhoff migration in imaging multiple arrivals and has no steep‐dip limits of one‐way wave‐equation migration. However, its imaging accuracy depends on the geometry of Gaussian beam that is determined by the initial parameter of dynamic ray tracing. As a result, its applications in exploration areas with strong variations in topography and near‐surface velocity are limited. Combined with the concept of Fresnel zone and the theory of wave‐field approximation in effective vicinity, we present a more robust common‐shot Fresnel beam imaging method for complex topographic land areas in this paper. Compared with the conventional Gaussian beam migration for irregular topography, our method improves the beam geometry by limiting its effective half‐width with Fresnel zone radius. Moreover, through a quadratic travel‐time correction and an amplitude correction that is based on the wave‐field approximation in effective vicinity, it gives an accurate method for plane‐wave decomposition at complex topography, which produces good imaging results in both shallow and deep zones. Trials of two typical models and its application in field data demonstrated the validity and robustness of our method.     

Field testing of modular borehole monitoring with simultaneous distributed acoustic sensing and geophone vertical seismic profiles at Citronelle,Alabama

A modular borehole monitoring concept has been implemented to provide a suite of well‐based monitoring tools that can be deployed cost effectively in a flexible and robust package. The initial modular borehole monitoring system was deployed as part of a CO₂ injection test operated by the Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership near Citronelle, Alabama. The Citronelle modular monitoring system transmits electrical power and signals, fibre‐optic light pulses, and fluids between the surface and a reservoir. Additionally, a separate multi‐conductor tubing‐encapsulated line was used for borehole geophones, including a specialized clamp for casing clamping with tubing deployment. The deployment of geophones and fibre‐optic cables allowed comparison testing of distributed acoustic sensing. We designed a large source effort (>64 sweeps per source point) to test fibre‐optic vertical seismic profile and acquired data in 2013. The native measurement in the specific distributed acoustic sensing unit used (an iDAS from Silixa Ltd) is described as a localized strain rate. Following a processing flow of adaptive noise reduction and rebalancing the signal to dimensionless strain, improvement from repeated stacking of the source was observed. Conversion of the rebalanced strain signal to equivalent velocity units, via a scaling by local apparent velocity, allows quantitative comparison of distributed acoustic sensing and geophone data in units of velocity. We see a very good match of uncorrelated time series in both amplitude and phase, demonstrating that velocity‐converted distributed acoustic sensing data can be analyzed equivalent to vertical geophones. We show that distributed acoustic sensing data, when averaged over an interval comparable to typical geophone spacing, can obtain signal‐to‐noise ratios of 18 dB to 24 dB below clamped geophones, a result that is variable with noise spectral amplitude because the noise characteristics are not identical. With vertical seismic profile processing, we demonstrate the effectiveness of downgoing deconvolution from the large spatial sampling of distributed acoustic sensing data, along with improved upgoing reflection quality. We conclude that the extra source effort currently needed for tubing‐deployed distributed acoustic sensing vertical seismic profile, as part of a modular monitoring system, is well compensated by the extra spatial sampling and lower deployment cost as compared with conventional borehole geophones.     

A new Lower Triassic (Induan) Jerus Limestone locality in northwest Pahang,Peninsular Malaysia: Conodont fauna,depositional and tectonic settings

Limestones exposed north of Raub, Pahang, Malaysia, and sandwiched between the Bentong‐Raub Suture Zone and the westernmost margin of the Sukhothai Arc terrane, yield a late Dienerian (late Induan) conodont fauna. The co‐occurrence of Neospathodus dieneri Sweet (morphotypes 1, 2 and 3) and Neospathodus pakistanensis Sweet represents the Neospathodus dieneri morphotype 3 sub‐zone of the Neospathodus dieneri Zone. The sampled limestones are interpreted as the northwards extension of the Jerus Limestone which crops out near Cheroh and Jerus villages, significantly extending the known outcrop of the Jerus Limestone northwards. The Jerus Limestone is interpreted as hemipelagic and formed in a foredeep or forearc setting on top of the accretionary complex formed by eastwards subduction of the Palaeo‐Tethys during the Lower to Middle Triassic.     

The exponential decline in saturated hydraulic conductivity with depth: a novel method for exploring its effect on water flow paths and transit time distribution

The strong vertical gradient in soil and subsoil saturated hydraulic conductivity is characteristic feature of the hydrology of catchments. Despite the potential importance of these strong gradients, they have proven difficult to model using robust physically based schemes. This has hampered the testing of hypotheses about the implications of such vertical gradients for subsurface flow paths, residence times and transit time distribution. Here we present a general semi‐analytical solution for the simulation of 2D steady‐state saturated‐unsaturated flow in hillslopes with saturated hydraulic conductivity that declines exponentially with depth. The grid‐free solution satisfies mass balance exactly over the entire saturated and unsaturated zones. The new method provides continuous solutions for head, flow and velocity in both saturated and unsaturated zones without any interpolation process as is common in discrete numerical schemes. This solution efficiently generates flow pathlines and transit time distributions in hillslopes with the assumption of depth‐varying saturated hydraulic conductivity. The model outputs reveal the pronounced effect that changing the strength of the exponential decline in saturated hydraulic conductivity has on the flow pathlines, residence time and transit time distribution. This new steady‐state model may be useful to others for posing hypotheses about how different depth functions for hydraulic conductivity influence catchment hydrological response. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved spatial delineation of streambed properties and water fluxes using distributed temperature sensing

A new method was developed for analysing and delineating streambed water fluxes, flow conditions and hydraulic properties using coiled fibre‐optic distributed temperature sensing or closely spaced discrete temperature sensors. This method allows for a thorough treatment of the spatial information embedded in temperature data by creating a matrix visualization of all possible sensor pairs. Application of the method to a 5‐day field dataset reveals the complexity of shallow streambed thermal regimes. To understand how velocity estimates are affected by violations of assumptions of one‐dimensional, saturated, homogeneous flow and to aid in the interpretation of field observations, the method was also applied to temperature data generated by numerical models of common field conditions: horizontal layering, presence of lateral flow and variable streambed saturation. The results show that each condition creates a distinct signature visible in the triangular matrices. The matrices are used to perform a comparison of the behaviour of one‐dimensional analytical heat‐tracing models. The results show that the amplitude ratio‐based method of velocity calculation leads to the most reliable estimates. The minimum sensor spacing required to obtain reliable velocity estimates with discrete sensors is also investigated using field data. The developed method will aid future heat‐tracing studies by providing a technique for visualizing and comparing results from fibre‐optic distributed temperature sensing installations and testing the robustness of analytical heat‐tracing models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a rain‐on‐snow detection algorithm using passive microwave radiometry

Currently observed climate warming in the Arctic has numerous consequences. Of particular relevance, the precipitation regime is modified where mixed and liquid precipitation can occur during the winter season leading to rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events. This phenomenon is responsible for ice crust formation, which has a significant impact on ecosystems (such as biological, hydrological, ecological and physical processes). The spatially and temporally sporadic nature of ROS events makes the phenomenon difficult to monitor using meteorological observations. This paper focuses on the detection of ROS events using passive microwave (PMW) data from a modified brightness temperature (T_B) gradient approach at 19 and 37 GHz. The approach presented here was developed empirically for observed ROS events with coincident ground‐based PMW measurements in Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada. It was then tested in Nunavik, Quebec, with the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR‐E). We obtained a detection accuracy of 57, 71 and 89% for ROS detection for three AMSR‐E grid cells with a maximum error of 7% when considering all omissions and commissions with regard to the total number of AMSR‐E passes throughout the winter period. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.