Some Probability Applications to Oil Exploration

In the first part of this paper, a portion of a sedimentary basin is subdivided conceptually into hexagons of equal area. The area of each hexagon is equal to the minimum area an oil field should have to be commercial. Hexagons can be full of oil, or empty. A field size 1 consists of a cell with oil surrounded by six empty cells; a field size 2 consists of two adjacent cells with oil surrounded by eight empty cells, etc. Principles of Percolation Theory are used to determine the probabilility distribution of the areas of the oil fields existing in this portion of the basin. The only piece of information necessary to determine this probability distribution is the Success Ratio (number of successful exploration wells/total number of exploration wells drilled in this portion of the basin). This approach has several practical applications.In the second part of this paper, a probabilistic model is introduced to predict to which extent potential oil traps are filled with oil. The model assumes that the probability that an oil unit will end up in a particular trap, is proportional to the surface area of the trap. The model predicts that independently of the distribution of the trap volumes, there will be a critical trap volume. All the traps having a volume less than this critical volume, will be filled to spill point. An equation is deduced to predict, for all traps having a volume greater than the critical, the volume of oil that can be encountered in the trap, provided the volume of the trap is known.     

Effect of Pinus radiata plantations on water balance in Chile

The effect of Pinus radiata (D. Don) plantations on water resources at different Chilean sites located between 33 and 40 south was determined. Incoming precipitation, canopy interception loss, evapotranspiration, net evapotranspiration (transpiration and evaporation from the soil), percolation and soil water content were measured in each site, where Pinus radiata plantations were 12 to 17 years old and between 700 and 830 trees ha^?1 dense. The results were compared with those obtained from areas covered with perennial grasses and shrubs at the same sites. The pine canopies intercepted on average 36–40% of the annual rainfall at all sites where rainfall was less then 1200 mm, while only 15% of the mean rainfall was intercepted in the southernmost and rainy (2081 mm year^?1) site. Annual net evapotranspiration increased from south to north from 32% of the incoming precipitation for the southernmost site to 55% for the one located at the lower latitude. In this northernmost site almost the entire incoming precipitation was evapotranspired. Annual percolation registered its minimum value in the northern site (5% of incoming precipitation) and its maxima in the southern one (53%). The values of net evapotranspiration and percolation were regulated by the pluviometric regime and the soil moisture retention capacity in each site. Compared with the shrub or grass covers, sites under Pinus radiata plantations registered higher water consumption by evapotranspiration and reduced percolation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

核磁共振测井技术在埕岛地区的应用

本文以埕岛地区埕北30潜山为例,研究了核磁共振测井在地层有效孔隙度、渗透率,可动流体体积和束缚流体体积等参数解释中的应用。     

Effects of melt percolation on the Re-Os systematics of continental mantle lithosphere: A case study of spinel peridotite xenoliths from Heilongjiang,NE China

Os isotope ratios of mantle peridotites have been considered to be largely immune to recent melt-rock interaction. However, Os isotope ratios and PGE (Platinum group elements) concentrations of the Yong’an xenoliths have been significantly modified by melt percolation, and are not suitable for determining the formation age of lithosphere mantle in Yong’an. In this study, the Yong’an spinel peridotite xenoliths are divided into two groups: N-Type and E-Type. The N-Type group including cpx (clinopyroxene)-poor lherzolite and harzburgite, shows a large variation of Cr#(sp) (13.2-48) and sulfur contents (from 171 ppm to below detection limit), whereas the E-Type peridotites are mainly refractory harzburgites and are characterized by high Cr#(sp) (35.3-42.2) and overall low sulfur contents (below 51 ppm). Both types show similar major and REE (rare earth element) patterns. Furthermore, the N-Type peridotites display a restricted range of iridium-group PGE (IPGE), Os/Ir and Ru/Ir ratios (Os/Ir = 0.64-1.12, Ru/Ir = 1.52-1.79) and variable palladium-group PGE (PPGE) contents (3.4-14.9 ppb), whereas the E-Type peridotites show a large variation of Os/Ir and Ru/Ir ratios (Os/Ir = 0.33-0.84, Ru/Ir = 0.94-1.6), and a restricted range of PPGE (4.3-6.9 ppb). 187Os/188Os ratios of E-Type peridotites are higher than those of N-Type peridotites at comparable fertility levels. These results suggest that N-Type peridotites may have been overprinted by metasomatism via small melt fractions, in which the percolation of the volatile-rich, small melt fractions only resulted in LILE (large ion lithophile element) enrichment of clinopyroxene, and their whole rock PGE contents and Re-Os isotope values were little changed. Moreover, E-Type peridotites may have been modified by melt-rock reaction involving relatively large melt fractions, which may result in the formation of secondary cpx and olivine and the removal of IPGE-bearing minerals such as Ru-Os-(Ir) alloys or laurite, followed by precipitation of secondary sulfides from melt with radiogenic isotopic signature.     

重塑饱和黄土长期渗流劣化机制及其渗透性分析

为研究重塑饱和黄土在长期渗流条件下的劣化机制,以杨凌Q3黄土为研究对象,用pH=4的稀乙酸溶液作为渗透液加速劣化,通过长时间的常规渗透试验和不同围压下的三轴渗透试验,测量了渗透系数随时间的变化过程,分析了渗透系数随时间的变化规律,探讨了重塑饱和黄土在长期渗流条件下的劣化机制。结果表明：渗透系数随着渗透时间持续减小,与时间符合幂函数关系;渗透系数是反映黄土劣化最敏感的参数;最小孔隙比面的孔隙比决定了渗透系数的大小;最小孔隙比面的孔隙比与初始孔隙比的比值可以用来描述黄土长期渗流的劣化程度,其比值定义为黄土长期渗流劣化率;结合黄土的非线性渗透模型提出了在一定围压下三轴渗透试验渗透系数与黄土长期渗流劣化率的关系式,进而推导出黄土长期渗流劣化率随时间的变化关系式。     

低延展性裂隙岩体REV存在性研究

采用自行开发的离散元软件FractureToKarst,根据国际岩石力学协会对岩石的分类,讨论了低延展性裂隙岩体典型单元体(REV)的存在性及大小,并给出确定其存在性的一般方法。根据研究结果可知,低延展性裂隙岩体REV存在的条件为裂隙平均间距在0.6 m以下,即极密间距、很密间距、密间距和中等间距裂隙岩体存在REV;裂隙平均间距大于0.6 m,即宽间距、很宽间距和极宽间距裂隙岩体不存在REV。 关键词：裂隙岩体;渗流;典型单元体(REV);离散元     

渗流作用下北京砂卵石地层多排管局部水平冻结体温度场试验

为研究渗流作用下多排管局部水平冻结体温度场扩展规律,基于相似准则,设计北京砂卵石地层冻结模型试验,从迎水面长度、顺水流长度、厚度3个维度研究渗流作用下多排管局部水平冻结体温度场扩展规律。研究表明:(1)水平冻结体中部发展速度最快,且温度最低;下部次之;上部最慢,且温度最高;(2)渗流作用使冻土柱由背水面向迎水面朝上游方向逐步交圈,且上、下游温度场不对称,冻结后期背水面呈坡屋顶形。(3)渗流作用对水平冻结体的影响随着渗流速度的增大而逐渐增大,积极冻结期末列冻土柱冻结锋面扩展速度、水平冻结体朝上游方向的平均发展速度均与渗流速度呈平方、负相关关系,渗流速度超过14.1 m/d时,冻土柱不交圈,为该模型试验的极限流速。基于等效梯形算法理论,给出的渗流作用下多排管局部水平冻结体的平均温度计算式,以便于评估水平冻结体发展状态。研究成果可为大流速地层盆形冻结施工提供依据。     

Applicability of time-to-failure analysis to accelerated strain before earthquakes and volcanic eruptions

We examine quantitatively the ranges of applicability of the equation Ω= A+B [1− t/t _f ] ^m for predicting 'system-sized' failure times t _f in the Earth. In applications Ω is a proxy measure for strain or crack length, and A , B and the index m are model parameters determined by curve fitting. We consider constitutive rules derived from (a) Charles' law for subcritical crack growth; (b) Voight's equation; and (c) a simple percolation model, and show in each case that this equation holds only when m < 0. When m > 0, the general solution takes the form Ω = A + B [1 + t / T  ] ^m , where T   is a positive time constant, and no failure time can be defined. Reported values for volcanic precursors based on rate data are found to be within the range of applicability of time-to-failure analysis ( m < 0). The same applies to seismic moment release before earthquakes, at the expense of poor retrospective predictability of the time of the a posteriori -defined main shock. In contrast, reported values based on increasing cumulative Benioff strain occur in the region where a system-sized failure time cannot be defined ( m > 0; commonly m ≈ 0.3). We conclude on physical grounds that cumulative seismic moment is preferred as the most direct measure of seismic strain. If cumulative Benioff strain is to be retained on empirical grounds, then it is important that these data either be re-examined with the independent constraint m < 0, or that for the case 0 < m + 1 < 1, a specific correction for the time-integration of cumulative data be applied, of the form ΣΩ = At + B '{1 − [1 − t/t _f ] ^m+1 }.     

X-CT扫描成像技术在特低渗透储层微观孔隙结构及渗流机理研究中的应用--以西峰油田庄19井区长82储层为例

鄂尔多斯盆地上三叠统延长组河流-湖泊三角洲相砂岩储层物性受沉积--埋藏--成岩等因素控制.特低渗透储层具有其独特的微观孔隙结构和渗流机理.应用X-CT扫描成像实验技术进行砂岩岩心微观孔隙结构水驱油驱替实验,通过CT扫描切片图像观察分析了注入水微观驱替渗流机理及不同注入压力下的水驱油效率变化分布规律(实验岩心的水驱油效率最高为62%,最低为42%,平均为51. 6%),定量评价了储层微观孔隙结构特征.实验表明低孔、低渗和储层微观双重孔隙结构是造成注入水启动压力、水驱油效率差异大的根本原因;而较强的微观孔隙结构非均质性,是造成注入水波及效率不高、水驱油效率较低的主要原因.