Implications of a percolation model for earthquake 'nucleation'

A percolation model is applied to the explanation of some of the qualitative and quantitative aspects associated with the recent observations of earthquake 'nucleation'. An additional assumption is introduced that nucleation starts at the critical point of percolation. The model explains the order of magnitude of the seismic moment release during the nucleation, the dependence of the seismic moment of the main shock on the duration of the nucleation process, and the observation that the fraction of the moment release during the nucleation has no systematic variation with the size of the main shock. The model also suggests that the source time function of the nucleation phase may be complex, and also that not all earthquakes are accompanied by a nucleation process, which is supported by observational results. By assuming that there exists a scale invariance associated with the criticality, a Widom scaling model is proposed to describe the electromagnetic emission during earthquake rupture.     

The statistical properties of immiscible fluid displacement in bond/site correlated network models of porous media

A statistical formulation is introduced which allows the determination of capillary pressure and relative permeability curves from lattice properties and, by extension, possibly core properties. Comparisons of statistical results to simulation results generally show good agreement for both drainage and imbibition. These processes turn out to be two different formulations of a single problem in one view presented here. Both agreement and disagreement between statistics and simulation results provide insight into the characteristics of the flow of immiscible fluids in porous media. A considerable amount of topological information on the fluids is also obtainable by these methods.     

旱地农田土壤水分动态平衡的模拟

从农田土壤水分平衡方程出发，综合考虑了农田水分的主要收支项，特别是对水分渗漏量估算进行了必要的改进，建立了旱地农田土壤水分的动态模型。运用地处半干旱气候区的甘肃天水和陕西经阳气象站气象资料和非灌溉作物地土壤水分观测资料摸拟了农田土壤水分的逐旬变化，其结果比较理想地描述了实际农田土壤水分变化规律。     

应力-温度对低渗透介质渗透率影响研究

在石油/天然气地下储存、核废料地下处置等工程中,低渗透介质的渗透率测试及其随着应力、温度的变化是工程稳定性和环境评价的基础。通过研制的低渗透介质温度-渗流-应力耦合三轴仪（T-M-PTS）,对不同静水压力、不同温度条件下锦屏大理岩的渗透率进行了渗透特性测试,并通过微裂隙模型从理论方面对致密岩石渗透率演化进行了研究。研究结果表明：（1）致密岩石中气体渗透的Klinkenberg效应显著,不能忽略;（2）基于统计理论和逾渗理论的圆盘裂隙模型可以较好地模拟致密岩石扩容和压密过程中渗透率演化特征;（3）静水压力增大,渗透率降低,其降低趋势是开始压缩阶段降低速率较快,随后降低速率越来越小;（4）温度升高,岩石弹性模量降低,岩石被压缩得更加致密,渗透率降低较为明显,从15℃升高至40℃即会降低一个量级,低至3.9×10-21 m2。     

一种基于逾渗模型的裂隙岩石渗透系数确定方法

针对裂隙岩体提出了一种基于双重逾渗模型的渗流系数分析方法。通过变参数研究,考察了岩体中渗流和孔压分布的不均匀;根据裂隙长度的不同将岩体分为孔隙控制渗流模式和裂隙控制渗流模式。这种模型不仅能够同时考虑孔隙和裂隙的作用,而且在模拟大规模裂隙网络时更加快捷简便。     

501矿床铀矿石室内浸铀试验地质工艺研究

501矿床矿石铀品位0．052％,U^＋6／U^＋4比值1．7～4．6,对浸铀地质工艺有害的碳酸盐、硫化物和有机质含量很少,矿层水中铀和溶解氧含量较高,[HCO3]^-量低。通过静态浸出试验确定的技术参数为：用7．91g／LH2SO4,对0．007％～0．216％品位铀矿石浸泡48h,铀的浸出率为64．69％～99．17％,浸出液中铀浓度为9．51—427．6mg／L。通过渗滤浸出试验筛选出较好的溶浸剂配方为：6～8g／LH2SO4,铀的浸出率为95．71％～96．33％,浸出液中铀浓度为88．33～111．32mg/L,浸出液固比为4．46～5．66,吨矿硫酸耗量为27．58～29．83kg/t,提取1kg铀的硫酸耗量为55．17～60．06kg。说明该矿床矿石宜用酸法浸出,浸出铀的地质工艺条件较好。     

安塞油田王窑区水淹层储层微观特征

安塞油田王窑区经过20多年的注水开发,储层有不同程度水淹,长期的水驱冲刷引起储层微观特征改变。针对不同水淹区域部署检查井进行储层微观特征变化及机理研究,对检查井密闭取心资料的分析研究表明:强水淹层段储层的粒度粗,面孔率高,孔喉结构较均匀。在强水淹层段有新生矿物方解石的生成,与原生矿物有明显区别。与注水开发前原始储层相比,储层粘土矿物的迁移及新生矿物的产生,导致注水开发后储层的物性变差。注水开发中后期储层吼道中值压力增加,退汞效率降低,相渗曲线变差,水驱油效率降低。     

剪切带构造-流体-成矿系统动力学模拟

剪切带构造成矿系统动力学模拟可以定量,并能展示成矿系统时空结构与发展,从而揭示其本质。可从质量平衡、输运反应耦合、转换界面成矿和动力分形弥散等四个方面对剪切带构造成矿系统动力学进行理论分析与数值模拟。质量平衡分析指出：（１）剪切蚀变作用过程中,各种物质组分发生了不同程度的迁移;（２）体积应变为增加型,金矿床定位于剪切带的扩容带中;（３）存在较大的流体与岩石比值,金矿体定位于流体流量最大部位。耦合成矿动力学模拟表明：（１）金属硫化物成矿作用发生于剪压构造变形岩相向剪张构造变形岩相转换的时空界面;（２）其决定因素是成矿元素的地球化学特性及成矿流体的特征和性状;（３）岩浆侵入后,形成以岩体为中心的温度梯度带,是热液成矿作用的主要动力之一;（４）成矿流体的流速可以促进混合热液的生长,剪切破碎带是强烈输运反应耦合成矿的有利场所。动力弥散作用过程理论分析与计算机模拟指出：（１）点源淀积弥散机制,Ｃ＝Ａρｖ２ｄｘｄｙｄｔｅ－ｋｒ／［２π（ｈ２－ｖ２ｔ）ｄｌ］;（２）分形弥散度,αｍ＝ｘｓ２Ｄ－１σ２（εｃ１－Ｄ）／２;（３）剪切带构造成矿系统是自相似的变形变质系统,在动力系统作用下,矿源系统与输运系统耦合,弥散作用发生;?     

Multifractal Analysis of the Arnea,Greece Seismicity with Potential Implications for Earthquake Prediction

Two-dimensional multifractal analysis is performed in a seismic area of Northern Greece responsible for recent strong earthquakes, including the Arnea sequence of May 1995, culminating in a M_w 5.3 event on 4/5/1995. It is found that multifractality gradually increases prior to the major seismic activity and that declusterization replaces clusterization not long before its initialization. The fractal dimensions D(q) (q > 0) abruptly drop for aftershocks, reflecting their very strong spatial clustering. The observed seismicity patterns seem to be compatible with a percolation process. Before the main sequence, the fractal dimension is consistently in the range 1.67–1.96 (standard deviation included). Percolation theory predicts 1.9 for 2D percolation clusters and 1.8 for the backbone of 3D percolation clusters. If the observed gradual increase in multifractality is due to multifractality reaching a maximum prior to the major slip (percolation), this may enable us to roughly estimate its time of occurrence.     

Fractal variations of the Transcarpathians,West Ukraine,seismicity and their potential relation to changing phases of local seismic cycles

The evolution of spatial arrangement of the Transcarpathian earthquakes is studied by means of fractal analysis. Spatial correlation dimension is evaluated for a subset of fixed number of catalogue events consecutively shifted in time by one event forward. Distinctive patterns that may be related to different phases of local seismic cycle/cycles have been identified, corresponding to extreme values of the dimension. Their potential relation to evolution of the seismogenic stress field is discussed. The time it takes for the capacity dimension to reach the so-called percolation threshold is estimated for a subset consecutively extended by adding next catalogue events. Temporal and spatial frames of percolation analysis are discussed in relation to parameters of the future earthquake.