基于海温和环流特征量的江苏省小麦适播期预测

基于江苏省60个气象台站1961-2010年冬小麦冬前生长期间的气温资料,利用曼-肯德尔法（Mann-Kendall method）分析发现,小麦冬前生长期间日均气温及有效积温在全球气候变暖背景下均有明显的增暖趋势。同时根据江苏省各地区冬小麦有记录以来的农业气象资料分析可得,播期与冬前总积温、有效积温具有极显著的相关关系,尤以有效积温更为显著,均通过了0．001显著水平检验,故可利用冬前有效积温确定冬小麦适播期。在此基础上,根据海气相互作用原理以及500hPa大气环流特征量能表征天气形势和控制天气条件的这一特性,利用最优化因子相关技术对海温及环流特征量进行普查,从中挑选一批与冬前有效积温相关显著、稳定性强、因子相互独立、可靠的海温和环流特征量作为长期预报因子,建立冬前有效积温的海温模型和环流模型,其拟合效果和试报效果甚佳,可投入业务应用,提前1-2月预测冬前有效积温,从而确定冬小麦适播期。     

西北太平洋海温变化对贵州夏季降水的影响

利用1952-2001年贵州15个测站夏季降水和前期太平洋海温场资料,及3因子最佳子集回归求最大复相关系数的方法,把前期不同时间步长、不同时段的海温场作为预报因子与夏季降水求相关。结果发现：用前期海温场作为预报因子对贵州夏季降水进行预报,其预报因子的最佳时间尺度为单月滑动,并且存在着较好的“隔多季度相关”现象。预报因子具有实际预报意义的最佳时段为上1年的8～11月。影响贵州夏季降水的最佳预报因子主要集中分布在海温场具有重要天气气候意义的关键区域。2002、2003、2004年的回报试验结果与实况进行对比分析发现,根据上述理论和预报思路得到的预测试验,具有一定效果,并且对指导贵州夏季降水预测具有一定的参考价值。     

Improved fuzzy weighted optimum curve-fitting method for estimating the parameters of a Pearson Type-III distribution

ABSTRACT

The objective of the curve-fitting method is to determine the optimal distribution by parameter estimation. The selection of the parameter estimation methods and the determination of the parameter estimation results may vary according to the different aims of the curve fitting, as well as the different accuracies and positions of the points. To solve the problem, the fuzzy weighted optimum curve-fitting method (FWOCM) was used to deal with the characters. The deficiencies of the original FWOCM were analysed, and it was found that the membership function and nomograph were unable to effectively deal with the curve fitting. An improved method and its indexes were evaluated, using effectiveness and unbiasedness as the assessment criteria, while scoring and percentage methods were chosen to comprehensively assess the statistical results. Compared with FWOCM, the results showed greater effectiveness and unbiasedness in the improved method.     

Adjoint method for the optimum planning of industrial pollutant sources

The deterioration of air quality is threatening the life and health of people. Scientists in China and other countries have done a great deal of research work on the details of air pollution and the methods of preven-tion and control during the past decades. Up to now, most of the achievements are concentrated on the techniques of controlling pollutant sources and the programs of reduction, which focus on the improve-ment of air quality and the restoration of environment. The techniques of con…     

光学探生仪研制

光学探生仪主要用于在地震等灾害造成的残垣断壁中快速、准确地寻找被困人员。因此,在研制光学探生仪时,必须充分考虑灾害救助现场的恶劣工作条件和对仪器的特殊要求。本文首先简要介绍了光学探生仪研究的有关情况,然后对光学探生仪主要部件的设计、选型和实验进行了详细研究,探讨研制先进、实用的光学探生仪的途径。这对我国探生仪研制工作具有借鉴意义。     

Efficient Bayesian sensor placement algorithm for structural identification: a general approach for multi‐type sensory systems

In this paper, a Bayesian sequential sensor placement algorithm, based on the robust information entropy, is proposed for multi‐type of sensors. The presented methodology has two salient features. It is a holistic approach such that the overall performance of various types of sensors at different locations is assessed. Therefore, it provides a rational and effective strategy to design the sensor configuration, which optimizes the use of various available resources. This sequential algorithm is very efficient due to its Bayesian nature, in which prior distribution can be incorporated. Therefore, it avoids the possible unidentifiability problem encountered in a sequential process, which starts with small number of sensors. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated using a shear building and a lattice tower with consideration of up to four types of sensors. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimum design and application of non‐traditional tuned mass damper toward seismic response control with experimental test verification

A variant type of tuned mass damper (TMD) termed as ‘non‐traditional TMD (NTTMD)’ is recently proposed. Mainly focusing on the employment of TMD for seismic response control, especially for base‐isolated or high‐rise structures, this paper aims to derive design formulae of NTTMDs based on two methodologies with different targets. One is the fixed points theory with the performance index set as the maximum magnitude of the frequency response function of the relative displacement of the primary structure with respect to the ground acceleration, and the other is the stability maximization criterion (SMC) to make the free vibration of the primary structure decay in the minimum duration. Such optimally designed NTTMDs are compared with traditional TMDs by conducting both numerical simulations and experiments. The optimum‐designed NTTMDs are demonstrated to be more effective than the optimum‐designed traditional TMDs, with smaller stroke length required. In particular, the effectiveness of the TMDs combined with a base‐isolated structure is investigated by small‐scale model experimental tests subjected to a time scaled long period impulsive excitation, and it is demonstrated that the SMC‐based NTTMD can suppress structural free vibration responses in the minimum duration and requires much smaller accommodation space. Additionally, a small‐scale shaking table experiment on a high‐rise bending model attached with a SMC‐based NTTMD is conducted. This study indicates that NTTMD has a high potential to apply to seismic response control or retrofit of structures such as base‐isolated or central column‐integrated high‐rise structures even if only a limited space is available for accommodating TMDs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

传感器布设中有效独立法的简捷快速算法

本文提出一个通过正交三角分解快速计算有效独立法系数的方法。有效独立法是传感器布设中影响最广泛的一种方法,它使目标模态尽可能线性独立。传统的有效独立法计算需要对信息阵进行特征值分解或者计算矩阵逆,计算量较大。本文在笔者以前得出的有效独立法与模态动能法关系的基础上,提出先通过对模态矩阵进行正交三角分解（QR）,然后比较其行范数即可得到有效独立法的系数,进而对各待选传感器位置进行排序并迭代依次删除。在待选传感器位置比感兴趣的模态数较多时,该法的计算效率明显提高。同时,采用正交三角分解删除一行后的更新算法,进一步提高了迭代计算的效率。最后通过I-40桥的算例表明该法的有效性。     

Performance of multiple tuned mass dampers for attenuating undesirable oscillations of structures under the ground acceleration

Multiple tuned mass dampers (MTMDs) consisting of many tuned mass dampers (TMDs) with a uniform distribution of natural frequencies are considered for attenuating undesirable vibration of a structure. The MTMD is manufactured by keeping the stiffness and damping constant and varying the mass. The structure is represented by its mode‐generalized system in the specific vibration mode being controlled using the mode reduced‐order method. The optimum parameters of the MTMD are investigated to delineate the influence of the important parameters on the effectiveness and robustness of the MTMD by conducting a numerical searching technique in two directions. The parameters include: the frequency spacing, average damping ratio, mass ratio and total number. The criterion selected for the optimization is the minimization of the maximum value of the dynamic magnification factor (DMF) of the structure with MTMD (i.e. Min.Max.DMF). In this paper, for the sake of comparison, the MTMD(II), which is made by keeping the mass constant and varying the stiffness and damping coefficient, and a single TMD are also taken into account. It is demonstrated that the optimum frequency spacing of the MTMD is the same as that of the MTMD(II) and the optimum average damping ratio of the MTMD is a little larger than that of the MTMD(II). It is also found that the optimum MTMD is more effective than the optimum MTMD(II) and the optimum single TMD with equal mass. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal placement of dampers and actuators based on stochastic approach

A general method is developed for optimal application of dampers and actuators by installing them at optimal location on seismic-resistant structures. The study includes development of a statistical criterion, formulation of a general optimization problem and establishment of a solution procedure. Numerical analysis of the seismic response in time-history of controlled structures is used to verify the proposed method for optimal device application and to demonstrate the effectiveness of seismic response control with optimal device location. This study shows that the proposed method for the optimal device application is simple and general, and that the optimally applied dampers and actuators are very efficient for seismic response reduction.