A two‐step‐ahead recurrent neural network for stream‐flow forecasting

In many engineering problems, such as flood warning systems, accurate multistep‐ahead prediction is critically important. The main purpose of this study was to derive an algorithm for two‐step‐ahead forecasting based on a real‐time recurrent learning (RTRL) neural network that has been demonstrated as best suited for real‐time application in various problems. To evaluate the properties of the developed two‐step‐ahead RTRL algorithm, we first compared its predictive ability with least‐square estimated autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (ARMAX) models on several synthetic time‐series. Our results demonstrate that the developed two‐step‐ahead RTRL network has efficient ability to learn and has comparable accuracy for time‐series prediction as the refitted ARMAX models. We then investigated the two‐step‐ahead RTRL network by using the rainfall–runoff data of the Da‐Chia River in Taiwan. The results show that the developed algorithm can be successfully applied with high accuracy for two‐step‐ahead real‐time stream‐flow forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stream Temperature Spatial Variability Reflects Geomorphology,Hydrology, and Microclimate: Navarro River Watershed,California

Stream temperatures are critical to coldwater fish and vary with microclimate, geomorphology, and hydrology, including influx of groundwater. Spatial variability of stream temperatures was examined at reach and watershed scales within the 816 km² Navarro River watershed in California. Field monitoring and numerical modeling illustrate that stream temperatures were highest at sites with high solar incidence (low shading and wide streams), long travel times, and low discharge. Microclimate helps explain deviation from the general pattern of streams warming with increasing drainage area. Reach-scale field observations of channel width and groundwater influx explain variation in stream temperatures not captured by watershed-scale models.     

江西乐平市戴村重金属环境地球化学特征及意义

戴村位于江西省乐平市东乐安江边,因受上游德兴铜矿、银山多金属矿和金山金矿等矿床的影响,从而成为我国十大癌症村之一。本文通过对戴村的一、二级阶地(T1、T2)土壤、地表水、地下水、小白菜样品中的重金属含量和pH值进行测定,发现仅T1近河处土壤As、Cd的单因子污染指数(As分别为1.213、1.473,Cd为1.98)达到轻度污染,T2土壤元素单因子指数(0.7)和内梅洛综合指数(1)均属于安全范围,土壤整体pH值为4.38~5.7,低于国家标准(6.5),土壤中重金属含量及其累积速率总体呈现随着与河流距离的增加而含量逐渐减小的趋势;地表水与地下水水质安全;小白菜Cu、As、Pb、Cd、Hg超标率依次为6.7%、86.7%、100%、100%、100%,且小白菜对Cd的富集倍数较高(范围为1.03~4.88);居民重金属的非致癌风险指数为0.137,非致癌健康危害不显著但仍具较大的潜在危害,致癌风险值为1.65×10~(–4),为不可接受风险;针对河流上游矿山、农作物种植、居民生活习惯三方面提出污染防治建议。     

一种改进的混合差分实时GPS卫星钟差估计算法及其实现

提出一种改进的混合差分算法,实现实时GPS卫星钟差估计。算法实现过程主要采用4个解算步骤,最终生成播发至用户的实时钟差产品。利用全球分布的68个测站实时数据流进行GPS卫星实时钟差解算,并对2018-01-14～01-19的实时GPS卫星钟差产品采用2种方法进行检核:1)与IGS快速钟差产品比较;2)运用实时动态PPP结果检核。结果显示,基于改进的混合差分算法,利用实时数据流实现的GPS实时卫星钟差产品具备STD为0.15 ns、RMS为0.63 ns的精度,可提供实时cm级定位服务。     

青海多彩当江地区水系沉积物元素地球化学结构特征及找矿方向

青海多彩当江地区位于三江多金属成矿带,具有较好的找矿前景。以该区1∶5万水系沉积物地球化学测量数据为研究对象,结合研究区内的米扎纳能铜-铅-锌多金属矿床的水系沉积物地球化学结构特征与地质特征进行了剖析,总结了研究区的地质-地球化学找矿标志,并提出了龙格东多铜-锌多金属找矿远景区,为该区的找矿工作提供了新方向。     

黄河中游河流阶地的对比及阶地系列形成中构造作用的多层次性分析

黄河在流经青藏市原东北缘海原－同以弧形构造区的过程中,发育了多达10－21组的斯座和侵蚀型阶地,其最大拔河高度为40lm,最高阶地的发育年代为1．57MaBP。通过对该区米家山、车木峡和黑山峡河口3处黄河阶地以及我国北方大范围内河流阶地的对比分析发现,河流阶地系列形成中在构造作用上具有多层次性特征,即它包含了不同范围或规模和不同级次构造隆升作用所导致的阶地。研究区的黄河阶地系列可以划分为3个层次。其中,第一层次的阶地共有6级,为我国北方大范围内同期形成的阶地,它们代表1．6Ma以来青藏高原阶段性隆升的次数,其隆升幅度由西向东逐渐减小;第二层次的阶地共有5级,为海原－天景山构造区内同期发育的阶地,它们代表1．6Ma以来该构造区本身自隆升的次数和幅度;第三层次阶地为发育在米家山东坡的10级不同期阶地,它们代表1．6Ma以来海原构造山地独自的抬升的次数和幅度。阶地发育时间与黄土－古土壤序列的对比还表明,反映青藏高原大范围构造隆升的第一层次阶地与气候变化之间有很好的可对比性,其形成年代均与相应古土壤发育时间的间冰期对应,暗示导致河流下切的在范围构造抬升与强干冷期后同样可导致河流下切的气候暖湿期紧密相关,它们共同组成了构造－气候旋回。第二层次和第三层次阶地的形成时间与气候变化之间无统一特定的关系,显示它们的形成更主要的受控于天景山块体和海原构造带的隆升作用。因此,研究区的河流阶地主要可分为2种成因类型。一种是在大范围构造抬升和气候变化联合作用下形成的构造－气候旋回阶地,此类阶地分布范围广,具有区域间的可对比性;另一种是以局部构造抬升为主导因素形成的脉动式构造旋回阶地,此类阶地的分布受 控于活动构造带,在构造区带内自成体系,不具有区域间的可对比性。     

A spatially distributed model for assessment of the effects of changing land use and climate on urban stream quality

While the effects of land use change in urban areas have been widely examined, the combined effects of climate and land use change on the quality of urban and urbanizing streams have received much less attention. We describe a modelling framework that is applicable to the evaluation of potential changes in urban water quality and associated hydrologic changes in response to ongoing climate and landscape alteration. The grid‐based spatially distributed model, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model‐Water Quality (DHSVM‐WQ), is an outgrowth of DHSVM that incorporates modules for assessing hydrology and water quality in urbanized watersheds at a high‐spatial and high‐temporal resolution. DHSVM‐WQ simulates surface run‐off quality and in‐stream processes that control the transport of non‐point source pollutants into urban streams. We configure DHSVM‐WQ for three partially urbanized catchments in the Puget Sound region to evaluate the water quality responses to current conditions and projected changes in climate and/or land use over the next century. Here, we focus on total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) from non‐point sources (run‐off), as well as stream temperature. The projection of future land use is characterized by a combination of densification in existing urban or partially urban areas and expansion of the urban footprint. The climate change scenarios consist of individual and concurrent changes in temperature and precipitation. Future precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer, while future temperature is projected to increase throughout the year. Our results show that urbanization has a much greater effect than climate change on both the magnitude and seasonal variability of streamflow, TSS and TP loads largely because of substantially increased streamflow and particularly winter flow peaks. Water temperature is more sensitive to climate warming scenarios than to urbanization and precipitation changes. Future urbanization and climate change together are predicted to significantly increase annual mean streamflow (up to 55%), water temperature (up to 1.9 °C), TSS load (up to 182%) and TP load (up to 74%). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Surfer 网格化与白化处理在数据扩边中的应用--以1∶5万水系沉积物测量成图为例

在1∶5万水系沉积物测量数据成图过程中,为最大程度地保留原始数据信息,通常采用 MapGIS 软件的三角剖分功能绘制平面等值线图。由于布点原因,图幅边部未能有效控制,往往造成图面完整性较差。通过 Surfer 软件的离散数据网格化,对非均匀分布的1∶5万水系沉积物测量原始成图数据进行插值,并利用其白化功能,对插值数据进行扩边处理,减少离散数据网格化的外推区域。利用 MapGIS 软件中三角剖分对扩边后的数据和原始数据制作地球化学图件,解决了三角剖分绘制平面等值线图不能完整充填图幅的问题,保证了地球化学图件的原始性、真实性与完整性。     

Modelling suspended sediment concentration and load in a transport‐limited alluvial gully in northern Queensland,Australia

Alluvial gullies are often formed in dispersible sodic soils along steep banks of incised river channels. Field data collected by Shellberg et al. (Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 38: 1765–1778, 2013) from a gully outlet in northern Australia showed little hysteresis between water discharge and fine (<63 µm) and coarse (>63 µm) suspended sediment, indicating transport‐limited rather than source‐limited conditions. The major source of the fine (silt/clay) component was the sodic soils of upstream gully scarps, and the coarser (sand) component was sourced locally from channel bed material. In this companion paper at the same study site, a new method was developed for combining the settling velocity characteristics of these two sediment source components to estimate the average settling velocity of the total suspended sediment. This was compared to the analysis of limited sediment samples collected during flood conditions. These settling velocity data were used in the steady‐state transport limit theory of Hairsine and Rose (Water Resources Research 28: 237–243, 245–250, 1992) that successfully predicted field data of concentrations and loads at a cross‐section, regardless of the complexity of transport‐limited upstream sources (sheet erosion, scalds, rills, gullies, mass failure, bank and bed erosion, other disturbed areas). The analysis required calibration of a key model parameter, the fraction of total stream power (F ≈ 0.025) that is effective in re‐entraining sediment. Practical recommendations are provided for the prediction of sediment loads from other alluvial gullies in the region with similar hydrogeomorphic conditions, using average stream power efficiency factors for suspended silt/clay (F_w ≈ 0.016) and sand (F_s ≈ 0.038) respectively, but with no requirement for field data on sediment concentrations. Only basic field data on settling velocity characteristics from soil samples, channel geometry measurements, estimates of water velocity and discharge, and associated error margins are needed for transport limit theory predictions of concentration and load. This theory is simpler than that required in source‐limited situations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一次冷锋倒槽暴风雪过程特征及其成因分析

利用常规观测资料,对2010年3月14日山西中北部的一次冷锋倒槽暴风雪天气的风场结构及其形成和维持机制进行了探讨。结果表明：（1）此次过程分为4个阶段,其中强冷锋降雪持续时间长,出现了两次降雪增幅,而涡旋降雪时间短,但强度大;地面自动站风场上β-中尺度辐合和β-中尺度涡旋是造成此次暴雪的直接原因。降雪强度和落区与风场结...