An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved treatments for evaluating horizontal magnetic components through the 3-D FDM in E -polarization induction problems

To improve the accuracy of the numerical evaluation through the 3-D finite difference method, the surface boundary conditions are added to modify the old program. The author has tested the new program by making calculations for the model constructed by Wanamaker, et al (1984). The comparison between the numerical results obtained from this paper and those by Wannamaker, et al (1984) indicates that a pronounced improvement is realized in the evaluation of the horizontal magnetic components. Moreover, better calculations for the vertical magnetic components are also obtainable by using the new program.     

Numerical modeling of 3-D terrain effect on MT field

Using the boundary element method, the numerical modeling problem of three-dimensional terrain effect on magnetotelluric (MT) field is solved. This modeling technique can be run on PC in the case of adopting special net division. The result of modeling test for 2-D terrain by this modeling technique is basically coincident with that by 2-D modeling technique, but there is a great difference between the results of 3-D and 2-D modeling for 3-D terrain. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

PART II: Comparison of Theoretical and Experimental Estimations of Site Effects

— To check the reliability and the quality of the theoretically estimated ground responses obtained from the 2-D simulation by the application of the hybrid method in PART-I, we compare some of them with those obtained at the same sites from observed data using the Standard Spectral Ratio (SSR). The comparison validates our synthetic modeling and shows that in cases of complex geometries, the use of at least 2-D numerical simulations is required in order to reliably evaluate site effects and thus facilitate the microzonation of the city of Thessaloniki.     

Simulation of oasis breeze circulation in the arid region of the Northwestern China

In this paper, the process of oasis-desert circulation (ODC) is simulated by MM5V3.5 model through designing an ideal oasis-desert scheme and assuming that initial atmosphere is at rest (V = 0). The findings showed that the key of forming special oasis boundary structure is the difference of energy and water between oasis and desert. The evaporation of oasis surface consumes heat energy, and the low temperature of oasis causes an oasis breeze circulation (OBC), which drives an ODC with a downdraft over the oasis and an updraft over the desert. Later, the cold, dry and stable boundary over oasis is gradually formed, on the contrary,the atmospheric boundary over desert on the edge of oasis is hot, humid and unstable and its height is about 600 hPa. The updraft over the desert forms a wet ring that acts as a vertical wall weakening the low-level moisture exchange between the oasis and desert. The downdraft of OBC increases the atmospheric stability that reduces the oasis evaporation. The low-level outflow from the oasis (into the desert) prevents the dry, hot air flowing from the desert into the oasis.Thus an oasis self-preservation mechanism may be formed due to OBC. The horizontal area influenced by oasis is twice as oasis area and the vertical range is four times as oasis. The ODC is strong in the daytime and reaches the strongest at 17:00, and the influenced area is the largest at 20:00.     

几种空气质量预报方法的预报效果对比分析

目前应用于我国各个城市空气质量预报业务的预报方法主要有三种 :数值模式预报、统计预报和综合经验预报。这几种预报方法都有其各自的优势 ,同时也存在一些不足。应用以上方法对天津市市区进行空气质量业务预报 ,通过实测资料与预报结果进行对比分析 ,给出这几种方法在天津市区空气质量预报中的预报效果客观评价。     

数值预报产品在夏季持续高温预报中的释用

利用 1999～ 2 0 0 2年 6～ 8月 96～ 192h日本数值预报产品 85 0hPa气温与吉林省的日平均气温、阶段性高温及极端最高气温 (长春市 )资料 ,通过线性分析 ,找出了日本数值预报产品的 85 0hPa气温与吉林省地面日平均气温、阶段性高温及极端最高气温的对应关系 :吉林省 6～ 8月日平均气温在 96～ 192h的 85 0hPa日本数值预报长春站日平均值上加 6 6～ 4 1℃ ,6～ 8月的极端最高气温在相应的日本数值预报产品上加 9 3～ 13 0℃。