日本列岛及中国东南沿海地震对中国大陆地震活动的影响估计

１９９４－１９９５年初日本列岛及中国东南沿海发生一组大地震，其中包括引起重大破坏的阪神大地震。从地震横向迁移角度对这些大地震集中发生对大陆地震的影响进行了分析。大震引起的应变波动传播速度馒、周期长、能量大、影响距离和深度大，其波峰可能触发地震。据Ｂｏｔｔ和Ｄｅａｎ的非弹性介质应变波运动方程解释了从海沟到内陆的大震迁移，指出１９１８年以来迁移序列目前对山西地震带及贺兰山地震带有影响；１９９４－１９９５年的地震序列在２０２０年左右将对渤海──郯庐断裂产生影响，２０３０年左右对华北平原产生影响；目前可能激发广东、福建沿海发生中等地震。     

从鲇鱼预报地震谈起

文章概述了日本学者多年来对鲇鱼预报地震的研究成果，同时介绍了日本开展地下电磁波垂分量法的观测和对地震前发生超低频电磁波的理论研究。     

Anatomy and genesis of a subduction-related orogen: A new view of geotectonic subdivision and evolution of the Japanese Islands

Abstract The Japanese Islands represent a segment of a 450 million year old subduction-related orogen developed along the western Pacific convergent margin. The geotectonic subdivision of the Japanese Islands is newly revised on the basis of recent progress in the 1980s utilizing microfossil and chronometric mapping methods for ancient accretionary complexes and their high-P/T metamorphic equivalents. This new subdivision is based on accretion tectonics, and it contrasts strikingly with previous schemes based on‘geosyncline’tectonics, continent-continent collision-related tectonics, or terrane tectonics. Most of the geotectonic units in Japan are composed of Late Paleozoic to Cenozoic accretionary complexes and their high-PIT metamorphic equivalents, except for two units representing fragments of Precambrian cratons, which were detached from mainland Asia in the Tertiary. These ancient accretionary complexes are identified using the method of oceanic plate stratigraphy. The Japanese Islands are comprised of 12 geotectonic units, all noted in southwest Japan, five of which have along-arc equivalents in the Ryukyus. Northeast Japan has nine of these 12 geotectonic units, and East Hokkaido has three of these units. Recent field observations have shown that most of the primary geotectonic boundaries are demarcated by low-angle faults, and sometimes modified by secondary vertical normal and/or strike-slip faults. On the basis of these new observations, the tectonic evolution of the Japanese Islands is summarized in the following stages: (i) birth at a rifted Yangtze continental margin at ca 750–700 Ma; (ii) tectonic inversion from passive margin to active margin around 500 Ma; (iii) successive oceanic subduction beginning at 450 Ma and continuing to the present time; and (iv) isolation from mainland Asia by back-arc spreading at ca 20 Ma. In addition, a continent-continent collision occurred between the Yangtze and Sino-Korean cratons at 250 Ma during stage three. Five characteristic features of the 450 Ma subduction-related orogen are newly recognized here: (i) step-wise (not steady-state) growth of ancient accretionary complexes; (ii) subhorizontal piled nappe structure; (iii) tectonically downward-younging polarity; (iv) intermittent exhumation of high-P/T metamorphosed accretionary complex; and (v) microplate-induced modification. These features suggest that the subduction-related orogenic growth in Japan resulted from highly episodic processes. The episodic exhumation of high-P/T units and the formation of associated granitic batholith (i.e. formation of paired metamorphic belts) occurred approximately every 100 million years, and the timing of such orogenic culmination apparently coincides with episodic ridge subduction beneath Asia.     

Recent advances in study of oceanic vortex

In this paper, the recent advances in the study of oceanic vortex are outlined. Firstly, the previous studies on oceanic vortex are reviewed. Secondly, some prominent features of oceanic vortex in the Gulf Stream, the Kuroshio, the South China Sea and the Japan Sea regions are depicted based upon the observations and numerical modeling results. Generally, the lifetime of these oceanic vortices ranges from several weeks to several months, and their horizontal scales vary from tens of kilometers to hundreds of kilometers. Their vertical scales are on the order of thousands of meters. Finally, some theoretical studies, mainly on the splitting of a cyclonic vortex and the merging of anticyclonic vortices, are introduced.     

WOFOST模型在东北春玉米产区的验证与适应性评价

校准与验证春玉米WOFOST模型,为模型本地化、区域化应用提供研究依据。采用东北春玉米田间观测数据,使用全局敏感性分析EFAST方法对WOFOST模型参数进行敏感性分析,结合土壤数据和同期气象数据等资料对模型进行参数校正与优化,确定春玉米的作物参数;利用独立的观测数据,对春玉米生育期、叶面积指数、各生物量等指标进行详细的验证与适应性评价。结果表明:1)针对不同区域进行作物模型敏感性分析筛选出的作物参数有一定差异,但对产量影响最敏感的前5位总敏感参数相同。2)模型对春玉米生育期的模拟较好,开花期和乳熟期的相对模拟平均误差在1 d左右,在成熟期的平均误差在3 d左右。3)模型对各生物量模拟的回归系数α与确定系数R2较好,均通过显著性检验,从模型整体模拟效果来看,地上部分总生物量和叶面积指数为89%和86%,整体模拟性能较好;残差聚集指数(CRM)为14%和4%,表明模型对地上生物量和叶面积指数的模拟值略偏低。4)通过校准模型作物参数值,WOFOST模型能够较好地模拟东北春玉米生长发育及其生物量的动态积累过程,能够应用于东北地区春玉米生产。     

赣东北蛇纹岩中铬尖晶石特征及其形成环境

赣东北蛇纹岩主要分布于该区的蛇绿混杂岩带内,经ICP-MS分析发现该区蛇纹岩Cr的丰度达6187×10-6,电子探针分析发现主要以铬尖晶石类矿物形式存在.铬尖晶石矿物的Cr#[=100*Cr/(Cr+A1)]为60～69,指示其形成环境可能与SSZ型蛇绿岩(supra-subduction zotle ophiolite)有关.     

Imaging of Vp, Vs, and Poisson’s ratio anomalies beneath Kyushu, southwest Japan: Implications for volcanism and forearc mantle wedge serpentinization

We determine detailed 3-D V_p and V_s structures of the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the Kyushu Island, southwest Japan, using a large number of arrival times from local earthquakes. From the obtained V_p and V_s models, we further calculate Poisson’s ratio images beneath the study area. By using this large data set, we successfully image the 3-D seismic velocity and Poisson’s ratio structures beneath Kyushu down to a depth of 150 km with a more reliable spatial resolution than previous studies. Our results show very clear low V_p and low V_s anomalies in the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the northern volcanoes, such as Abu, Kujyu and Unzen. Low-velocity anomalies are seen in the mantle beneath most other volcanoes. In contrast, there are no significant low-velocity anomalies in the crust or in the upper mantle between Aso and Kirishima. The subducting Philippine Sea slab is imaged generally as a high-velocity anomaly down to a depth of 150 km with some patches of normal to low seismic wave velocities. The Poisson’s ratio is almost normal beneath most volcanoes. The crustal seismicity is distributed in both the high- and low-velocity zones, but most distinctly in the low Poisson’s ratio zone. A high Poisson’s ratio region is found in the forearc crustal wedge above the slab in the junction area with Shikoku and Honshu; this high Poisson’s ratio could be caused by fluid-filled cracks induced by dehydration from the Philippine Sea slab. The Poisson’s ratio is normal to low in the forearc mantle in middle-south Kyushu. This is consistent with the absence of low-frequency tremors, and may indicate that dehydration from the subducting crust is not vigorous in this region.     

基于“配料法”的东北冷涡暴雨预报研究

利用1961—2014年中国东北地区200个气象站逐日降水资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了东北冷涡暴雨的气候特征,分析了低空急流、切变对冷涡暴雨的影响;诊断分析了可表征冷涡暴雨过程中水汽条件、动力条件、热力不稳定条件的比湿、水汽通量、水汽通量散度、散度、垂直速度、K指数等物理参数,研究了东北冷涡暴雨发生时上述各物理参数需要达到的阈值指标,利用研究的物理参数阈值指标以及低空急流和切变等配料因子构建了东北冷涡暴雨的"配料法"预报模型,结合ECMWF模式和T639模式数值预报产品将"配料法"暴雨预报模型进行了业务化应用试验及效果评估。结果表明,东北冷涡有66%会产生暴雨,冷涡暴雨多发生在7—8月;低空急流和切变对冷涡暴雨有触发作用,91.2%的冷涡暴雨发生时对流层低层存在急流或切变;基于"配料法"的冷涡暴雨预报TS评分比ECMWF模式和T639模式暴雨预报评分提高了7.4%和11.1%,且明显减少了暴雨的漏报率。     

一次西北气流型冰雹过程分析中加密观测资料的综合应用

利用多普勒天气雷达观测资料、风廓线雷达、天津255m气象铁塔观测资料,结合NCEP再分析资料、北京和乐亭两个探空站、5min间隔自动站观测资料和自动站J文件,对2014年6月22日天津地区一次漏报冰雹过程对流系统的演变特征进行精细化分析。结果表明:(1)这次西北气流型冰雹天气是在低能量环境场发生的,冰雹入侵路径是少见的东北路径;(2)雹暴单体发展于地面"人"字形辐合线"捺"部顶端,配合干线的共同作用造成雹暴单体加强发展,形成阶段近地层强东风入流加强地面风速辐合和干线的强度。成熟阶段气象要素的骤变(降温、升压、增湿)远强于形成和发展阶段的变化;(3)雹暴后侧入流区东北气流的维持及其下传对雹暴单体的增强起到重要作用。前侧入流区东北气流则自地面向边界层伸展,且临近降雹时塔层气象要素均有短时间的反向变化;(4)风暴追踪信息显示雹暴单体质心高度在3~4km,回波顶高远超过-20℃高度,最大反射率因子高度存在3次明显下落,发展阶段垂直液体含水量达最大55kg·m~(-2)。     

日本海及中国东北地震的深度分布及其应力状态

本文分析了日本海及中国东北的地震深度分布。证实了日本本州北部至中国东北的贝尼奥夫带(Benioff)基本是连续的,该带的倾向约为北85°西,倾角约为29°,深度在150公里以下贝尼奥夫带厚度约为20公里。研究了日本本州北部至中国东北的震级M_b≥5.0地震的震源机制解,发现中国东北地壳应力场与日本海地壳的应力场方向一致,来源于太平洋板块的挤压。在俯冲带上,深度在100公里到200公里之间的情况较为复杂,大多数地震显示的主压应力方向与贝尼奥夫带的倾向、倾角一致,有的T轴取向与贝尼奥夫带的倾向、倾角一致,有的特征方向与贝尼奥夫带倾向、倾角均不一致。深度在200公里至500公里之间,主压应力方向近于水平,并与贝尼奥夫带走向垂直,张应力轴相对集中。深度大于500公里时,主压应力方向与贝尼奥夫带的倾向、倾角一致,张应力轴相对集中