滑坡定量预测的非线性理论方法

滑坡时空预测是当前滑坡研究中的难题，特别是滑坡时间预测工作，其进展缓慢。本文基于非线性科学理论，分析了滑坡活动的分形特征及时间分形预测方法，研究了滑坡空间预测的人工神经网络特征，系统介绍了滑坡时间预测的非线性动力学理论。在此基础上，讨论了滑坡定量预测的发展趋势。     

模拟退火剩余静校正的一步算法

当地震资料的剩余静校正量大、信噪比低时，利用传统的线性反演方法不能有效地拾取静校正量。本文介绍一种非线性反演方法（一步模拟退火法）来估算炮点和检波点的剩余静校正量。通过对合成地震记录的试算表明，该算法可获得近似于真实的剩余静校正量。     

地球运动的超非线性分析

根据超非线性速度理论，研究了地球的自转状态，得知地球自转的角速度沿半径方向有突变和减小，并由此计算了地壳相对于地核的角速度差值，算得赤道表面每年西移１．７５ｃｍ，符合已报道的观测数据。     

EFFECTS OF THREE KINDS OF PHYSICAL PROCESSES ON TYPHOON INTENSITY*

This paper designs three quasi-geostrophic barotropic models with a radial/horizontal grid length being 2 kin,one in the polar coordinates,one on a stationary typhoon circulation condition and another on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition in the Cartesian coordinates,to investigate the effects of azimuthal and radial linear advections,and nonlinear advection on the inward propagation of mesoscale vorticity and the changes of typhoon intensity.Results show that the azimuthal linear advection may result in the formation of spiral vorticity bands;the radial linear advection in a certain parameter set is able to transfer vorticity inwards,leading to a slight enhancement of typhoon;the nonlinear advection of perturbation vorticity on a stationary typhoon circulation condition may transfer more vorticities inwards,thus resulting in a distinct enhancement of typhoon;and the nonlinear advection on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition possesses duality,i.e.on the one hand,the advection increases the vorticity of inward propagation,thus favorable to the intensification of typhoon,and on the other hand,in the inward propagation process of vorticity the originally concentric and axisymmetric structure of typhoon basic flow is damaged,and a complex flow pattern forms,which in turn tends to weaken the circulation of typhoon.At last the paper discusses the possible applications of those results in typhoon intensity prediction.     

Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.     

Variographic analysis of tropical forest cover from multi-scale remotely sensed imagery

Tropical forest mapping is one of the major environmental concerns at global and regional scales in which remote sensing techniques are firmly involved. This study examines the use of the variogram function to analyse forest cover fragmentation at different image scales. Two main aspects are considered here: (1) analysis of the spatial variability structure of the forest cover observed at three different scales using fine, medium and coarse spatial resolution images; and (2) the study of the relationship between rescaled images from the finest spatial resolution and those of the medium and coarse spatial resolutions. Both aspects are analysed using the variogram function as a basic tool to calculate and interpret the spatial variability of the forest cover. An example is presented for a Brazilian tropical forest zone using satellite images of different spatial resolutions acquired by Landsat TM (30 m), Resurs MSU (160 m) and ERS ATSR (1000 m). The results of this study contribute to establishing a suitable spatial resolution of remotely sensed data for tropical forest cover monitoring.     

高速公路沉降计算中e-lg p法修正探讨

利用已有的高速公路土工试验资料，通过大量的非线性有限元计算得出一个与路堤填筑高度及路基土体压缩系数相关的沉降综合修正式，使得单向 e-lgp 法的计算结果修正后能够考虑土体侧向变形。实例验证表明：经此式修正后的沉降值误差较小，不但比规范法更合理，而且与实测值以及有限元法结果很接近，具有一定的工程参考价值和借鉴意义。     

面雨量不均对GIUH非线性改正探讨

地貌单位线(GIUH)基于流域地貌特征和概率方法，在我国许多地区得到广泛应用。针对面雨量分布不均问题，通过分析初始概率的变化，考虑GIUH的非线性改正，并用实际资料进行了验证。     

Spatial variability and pattern analysis of soil properties in Dehui city, Jilin province

1IntroductionSoil nutrient, as the synthetic results under the influence of various anthropogenic activities and the factors such as climate and topography, etc., possesses certain spatial distribution characteristics, and certain structural and stochastic characteristics. The study of the differences existing in different parts of the region lays the foundation for adjusting all management measures and all material input capacities and for gaining the maximal economic benefit. Presently, the …     

基于非线性平差模型的坐标转换公式

用线性近似法以及非线性参数估计法讨论了直角坐标系七参数转换模型，指出改进的Gauss-Newton方法具有理论严密、计算简洁、易于编程、精度较高等持点。对于处理类似坐标转换的非线性模型具有重要的理论和实践意义。