Stability and capsizing analysis of nonlinear ship rolling in wind and stochastic beam seas

Considering the actual seaway condition, stability and capsizing of nonlinear ship rolling system in stochastic beam seas is of significant importance for voyage safety. Safe zone are defined in the phase space plan of the unperturbed Hamilton system to qualitatively distinguish ship motions as capsize and noncapsize. Capsize events are defined by solutions passing out of the safe zone. The probability of such an occurrence is studied by virtue of the random Melnikov function and the concept of phase space flux. In this paper, besides conventional wave excitation, the effect of wind load is also taken into account. The introduction of wind load will lead to asymmetry, in other words, it transforms the symmetric heteroclinic orbits into asymmetric homoclinic orbits. For asymmetric dynamical system, the orbital analytic solutions and its power spectrum are not readily available, and the technique of discrete time Fourier transformation (DTFT) is used. In the end, as verification of theoretical critical significant wave height, capsizing probability contour diagram is generated by means of numerical simulation. The contour diagram shows that these analytical methods provide reliable and predictive results about the likelihood of a vessel capsizing in a given seaway condition.     

Differentiation in reproductive traits of geminate mangrove crabs of the genus Aratus (Decapoda: Brachyura) across the Central American Isthmus

The mangrove crab Aratus pisonii was considered to have an amphi‐American distribution; however, a recent study revealed that the Eastern Tropical Pacific populations were genetically distinct, thus representing a new species: Aratus pacificus. These species separated by the Isthmus of Panama have diverged under different environmental conditions that may have influenced their reproductive biology. As the available information about this genus concerns almost exclusively the Caribbean species, the aim of the present study was to analyse and compare reproductive aspects of A. pacificus and A. pisonii obtained from both the Pacific and Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica. Females were collected from April 2011 to April 2012, and reproductive features such as breeding season, size distribution of ovigerous females, fecundity, reproductive output, embryo volume and embryo water content were assessed. Both species produced embryos during the entire sampled period. Most females of A. pacificus carrying embryos close to hatching were found during the rainy season. Ovigerous females of A. pisonii were substantially larger and reached sexual maturity at a larger size than females of A. pacificus. Embryo production started in A. pacificus at a smaller female size than in A. pisonii. As fecundity increased with female size, the average fecundity was lower in A. pacificus. Females of A. pisonii produced larger embryos, which might be related to lower food availability: higher energy content in the embryo enhances the chances of larval survival. These data regarding reproductive features of the Pacific and Caribbean species support the conclusion to separate A. pacificus from A. pisonii.     

中国近海以及邻近海域海洋再分析产品(CORA)中季节内变化的评估

A regional reanalysis product—China Ocean Reanalysis(CORA)—has been developed for the China's seas and the adjacent areas. In this study, the intraseasonal variabilities(ISVs) in CORA are assessed by comparing with observations and two other reanalysis products(ECCO2 and SODA). CORA shows a better performance in capturing the intraseasonal sea surface temperatures(SSTs) and the intraseasonal sea surface heights(SSHs) than ECCO2 and SODA do, probably due to its high resolution, stronger response to the intraseasonal forcing in the atmosphere(especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation), and more available regional data for assimilation. But at the subsurface, the ISVs in CORA are likely to be weaker than reality, which is probably attributed to rare observational data for assimilation and weak diapycnal eddy diffusivity in the CORA model. According to the comparison results, CORA is a good choice for the study related to variabilities at the surface, but cares have to be taken for the study focusing on the subsurface processes.     

黑潮延伸体上游中尺度涡场的年代际振荡及其相关机制

黑潮延伸体上游区域的中尺度涡场的涡动能和涡特征尺度存在显著地年代际振荡,和黑潮延伸体路径的年代际变化有很好的相关性。当黑潮延伸体路径比较稳定时,其上游区域涡动能比较高,涡特征尺度比较大,反之相反。通过对黑潮延伸体上游区域的中尺度涡场进行集合分析发现:当黑潮延伸体处于稳定状态时,上游涡场几乎是各向均匀地,有轻微的径向伸长;而当黑潮延伸体处于不稳定状态时,上游的中尺度涡场有显著地纬向伸长。对与中尺度涡场的产生相关的线性斜压不稳定和正压不稳定进行了计算分析,结果显示,线性斜压不稳定不是控制中尺度涡场年代际变化的机制,而正压不稳定对中尺度涡场的年代际变化有积极的贡献。不稳定产生的中尺度涡之间存在非线性涡-涡相互作用。     

A statistical analysis of mesoscale eddies in the Bay of Bengal from 22–year altimetry data

本文使用一种基于SLA数据的涡旋识别方法,通过22年的AVISO高度计测高数据对孟加拉湾的中尺度涡特征进行了研究。本文主要分析了孟加拉湾涡旋的地理分布、涡旋极性、涡旋生命周期和传播距离、涡旋产生和消失位置、涡旋传播方向和移动轨迹、涡旋运动特征、涡旋属性的演化以及涡旋活动的季节和年际变化等特性。涡旋主要分布在孟加拉湾西部海域,并且大部分涡旋向西移动。涡旋极性分布显示气旋涡更经常出现在湾的西北部和南部,而反气旋涡主要出现在湾的东部。在22年间,共追踪探测到生命周期超过30天的气旋涡565个、反气旋涡389个;对所有生命周期和传播距离而言都是气旋涡数量居多。所有观测到的涡旋的运动属性分析显示气旋涡的涡旋平均振幅大于反气旋涡;对平均半径和平均移动速度而言,气旋涡和反气旋涡相差不大。而且,涡旋属性演化显示生命周期超过90天的涡旋具有明显的双阶段演化特征,包括一个前50天的涡旋成长阶段和一个50天之后的涡旋消亡阶段。针对涡旋活动的季节变化,气旋涡在春季居多而反气旋涡在夏季较多;长生命周期的涡旋季节分布显示在孟加拉湾涡旋活动具有明显的季节分布特征。涡旋数量的年际变化与EKE变化有一个明显的负相关。     

南海中尺度涡强度的季节和年际变化分析

为了研究南海中尺度涡强度的季节和年际变化规律,利用Matlab提取50 a(1958~2007年)简单海洋资料同化(Simple Ocean Data Assimilation,SODA)月平均数据集中流场和海表面高度场数据,应用一个涡旋自动探测算法对南海中尺度涡初始生成位置进行分析,并分析了海表面高度异常均方根值的季节变化和年际变化。结果表明:50 a里南海中尺度涡主要分布在吕宋岛西北海域、吕宋岛西南海域和越南以东广大海域,秋、冬季中尺度涡能量较高,春季中尺度涡最弱,中尺度涡强度高值区年际变化明显。从季节变化上看,海面高度异常均方根春、夏季最小,秋冬季最大;从年际变化上看,与同时期Nino3指数有显著负相关,周期大约为3 a。     

黄海海浪季节变化的数值模拟研究

利用第三代海浪数值模式SWAN,研究了黄海海浪有效波高的季节变化特征及相关的物理过程。结果表明,在黄海的大部分区域,混合浪有效波高的最大值出现在冬季,而最小值则基本出现在夏季。北黄海北部和山东半岛南岸的近海海域呈现稍微不同的季节变化,有效波高的最大值出现在春季。全年4个季节中混合浪有效波高的空间分布基本一致:均在济州岛西南最大,沿黄海中部区域向北和由中部区域向近岸区域逐渐减小。黄海海浪为风浪占主,涌浪有效波高远小于风浪有效波高。在黄海的大部分区域,白冠耗散和四波非线性相互作用对黄海海浪的季节变化均至关重要;对于外海区域,四波非线性相互作用更为重要,而对于近海区域,白冠耗散则影响更大。本研究旨在研究黄海海浪的季节变化特征及其物理过程,为进一步探讨该海域海浪在其他时间尺度上的变异特征和动力学过程提供研究基础。     

西太平洋暖池热盐结构盐度场变异的主模态

基于1950~2011年间的月平均温、盐度资料,以28℃等温线作为西太平洋暖池的定义标准,并取ΔT=-0.4℃,分别计算了暖池区(20°N~15°S,120°E~140°W)各格点混合层、障碍层和深层的平均盐度,构成了暖池热盐结构的盐度场.据此,运用EOF分解法分析了暖池热盐结构盐度距平场主要模态的变化特征及其与ENSO间的关系,并探讨了主要模态的年际变异机理.结果表明,暖池热盐结构盐度场第一模态揭示了盐度场变异的关键区位于暖池中部;该模态具有2~4a的年际变化和准10a的年代际变化,并在1977年前后经历了一次气候跃变(此外,深层盐度场第一模态还在1999年前后发生了一次气候跃变),且在跃变前后与不同类型的ENSO事件有较密切的联系.暖池中部混合层和障碍层盐度的变化比较一致,即在跃变前盐度为偏高期,而在跃变后则变为偏低期.暖池中部深层盐度在1977年以前和1999年之后皆处于偏高期,而在1978~1999年间则处于偏低期.而且,从混合层至深层,盐度的变化幅度逐渐变小.进一步分析表明,暖池中部混合层和障碍层盐度的年际变化主要是由纬向风、南赤道流(SEC)和降水共同引起的,即当东风增强(减弱)时,强(弱)SEC将携带更多(少)的高盐水进入混合层或潜沉至障碍层,同时局地降水的减少(增多),也使得混合层和障碍层的盐度增加(减少);深层盐度的年际变化主要是由SEC和赤道潜流(EUC)导致的,即当SEC增强(减弱)时,将有更多(少)的高盐水进入暖池,而当EUC增强(减弱)时则有更多(少)的低盐水流出暖池,从而使得暖池的深层盐度升高(降低).     

Effect of 2D spatial variability on slope reliability: A simplified FORM analysis

To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability.     

波浪在珊瑚岸礁礁坪上传播变形的数值研究

波浪的传播变形对珊瑚岛礁附近的营养物质输送以及近岸珊瑚沙运动都起着关键的作用,同时也是礁盘顶部建筑物在设计和施工过程中需要重点考虑的因素,因此,对波浪在礁坪上的传播变形进行研究具有重要意义。利用FUNWAVE 2.0数值模型模拟了不规则波浪在不同形状岸礁上的传播变形过程,讨论了礁前斜坡坡度以及珊瑚底面粗糙程度对波浪在礁坪上传播变形的影响。结果显示,随着礁坡斜率增大,不对称度参数绝对值的增长趋势逐渐变缓,波浪在光滑礁坪上的不对称度绝对值要略大于粗糙底面上的值,而不同地形下计算得到的波浪偏度参数则基本相同。说明礁坡坡度对波浪的不对称度特征具有显著影响,礁坪粗糙度的影响则相对较小,而上述因素对波浪偏度的影响则完全可以忽略。给出了考虑这两个影响因素的礁坪区域内波浪偏度和不对称度经验公式。