水库流域入库洪水预报误差分析

由于受水库枢纽工程的影响，使得反推计算的入库流量本身就存在较大的误差，从而增加了入库洪水预报模型研制的难度，影响了这时预报精度的考核。通过对全国诸多水电厂水库流域实时洪水预报的实践，对其入库洪水预报中存在的误差原因及解决方法进行了科学的分析和阐述，以指导实时预报。     

Dynamic nucleation process of shallow earthquake faulting in a fault zone

Two distinct phases are commonly observed at the initial part of seismograms of large shallow earthquakes: low-frequency and low-amplitude waves following the onset of a P wave ( P ₁) are interrupted by the arrival of the second impulsive phase P₂ enriched with high-frequency components. This observation suggests that a large shallow earthquake involves two qualitatively different stages of rupture at its nucleation.
We propose a theoretical model that can naturally explain the above nucleation behaviour. The model is 2-D and the deformation is assumed to be anti-plane. A key clement in our model is the assumption of a zone in which numbers of pre-existing cracks are densely distributed; this cracked zone is a model for the fault zone. Dynamic crack growth nucleated in such a zone is intensely affected by the crack interactions, which exert two conflicting effects: one tends to accelerate the crack growth, and the other tends to decelerate it. The accelerating and decelerating effects are generally ascribable to coplanar and non-coplanar crack interactions, respectively. We rigorously treat the multiple interactions among the cracks, using the boundary integral equation method (BIEM), and assume the critical stress fracture criterion for the analysis of spontaneous crack propagation.
Our analysis shows that a dynamic rupture nucleated in the cracked zone begins to grow slowly due to the relative predominance of non-coplanar interactions. This process radiates the P₁ phase. If the crack continues to grow, coalescence with adjacent coplanar cracks occurs after a short time. Then, coplanar interactions suddenly begin to prevail and crack growth is accelerated; the P₂ phase is emitted in this process. It is interpreted that the two distinct phases appear in the process of the transition from non-coplanar to coplanar interaction predominance.     

Inferring the relative measure of principal stress components

The phase velocity and the attenuation coefficient of compressional seismic waves, propagating in poroelastic, fluid-saturated, laminated sediments, are computed analytically from first principles. The wavefield is found to be strongly affected by the medium heterogeneity. Impedance fluctuations lead to poroelastic scattering; variations of the layer compressibilities cause inter-layer flow (a 1-D macroscopic local flow). These effects result in significant attenuation and dispersion of the seismic wavefield, even in the surface seismic frequency range, 10–100 Hz. The various attenuation mechanisms are found to be approximately additive, dominated by inter-layer flow at very low frequencies. Elastic scattering is important over a broad frequency range from seismic to sonic frequencies. Biot's global flow (the relative displacement of solid frame and fluid) contributes mainly in the range of ultrasonic frequencies. From the seismic frequency range up to ultrasonic frequencies, attenuation due to heterogeneity is strongly enhanced compared to homogeneous Biot models. Simple analytical expressions for the P -wave phase velocity and attenuation coefficient are presented as functions of frequency and of statistical medium parameters (correlation lengths, variances). These results automatically include different asymptotic approximations, such as poroelastic Backus averaging in the quasi-static and the no-flow limits, geometrical optics, and intermediate frequency ranges.     

西南极菲尔德斯GPS形变网监测数据的误差特性分析与处理

本文对西南极菲尔德斯形变网ＧＰＳ监测数据的误差特性进行分析，利用数理统计原理检验了数据中的系统误差，提出了削弱这类系统误差的方法。该方法有３个特点：１．以监测网中两个稳定点为基准；２．对监测网数据进行尺度因子改正与坐标变换迭代计算；３．归算后监测网点位结构不变。经改化处理后的数据，基本上消除了系统误差的影响。     

灰色预测模型在径流长期预报中的应用

基于灰色系统的建模理论，利用河西地区有关河流的径流观测资料，建立了一个ＧＭ（１，１）残差序列周期修正径流预测模型，并用于春旱缺水期３～６月河流来水量的长期预报，经生产部门验证，准确率在８０％以上     

用非线性遗传反演方法进行自动静校正

静校正处理是消除近地层影响的一个重要地震资料数字处理方法，在近地表层纵，横向变化复杂，静校正量变化较大的地区，常规静校正方法和线性反演方法均不能解决问题，遗传算法是近年发展起来的一种模拟生物生化过程的较先进的非线性反演方法，对用遗传算法进行静校正的若干问题进行了讨论，说明它是可以解决表层情况复杂地区静校正问题的一个有效方法。     

滑坡定量预测的非线性理论方法

滑坡时空预测是当前滑坡研究中的难题，特别是滑坡时间预测工作，其进展缓慢。本文基于非线性科学理论，分析了滑坡活动的分形特征及时间分形预测方法，研究了滑坡空间预测的人工神经网络特征，系统介绍了滑坡时间预测的非线性动力学理论。在此基础上，讨论了滑坡定量预测的发展趋势。     

模拟退火剩余静校正的一步算法

当地震资料的剩余静校正量大、信噪比低时，利用传统的线性反演方法不能有效地拾取静校正量。本文介绍一种非线性反演方法（一步模拟退火法）来估算炮点和检波点的剩余静校正量。通过对合成地震记录的试算表明，该算法可获得近似于真实的剩余静校正量。     

ADVANCES IN MEASURING TECHNIQUES OF BED LOAD

I.m~UCrIONBedloadisthesedimentwhichmovesalongtheriverbedintheformofrolling,slidingandsaltation.BedloadmaycreatemanyproblemsintheoperationandmaintenanceofnavigationchannelandinthedevelOPmentofhydroelectricity.Dataofbedloaddischargearealsorequiredinthedesignofreservoir,inwhichtheinflowbedloadareallactuallytrapped.Thewaysofbedloadmotionaredifferentfordifferentsizes.Thus,itisextremelydifficulttodeterminethebedloaddischargeaccurately.Manyequationshavebeenproposedtocalculatethebedloaddischarge.H…     

地球运动的超非线性分析

根据超非线性速度理论，研究了地球的自转状态，得知地球自转的角速度沿半径方向有突变和减小，并由此计算了地壳相对于地核的角速度差值，算得赤道表面每年西移１．７５ｃｍ，符合已报道的观测数据。