Dynamic Analysis of a Single-Column Platform (II)

This paper describes the study of a single-column structure used as well-head platform. In order to check the reliability of computation theory and programme, model tests have been carried out. The paper introduces the conclusion of tests and the dynamic properties of single-column platform are obtained.     

Snow interception modelling: Isolated observations have led to many land surface models lacking appropriate temperature sensitivities

When formulating a hydrologic model, scientists rely on parameterizations of multiple processes based on field data, but literature review suggests that more frequently people select parameterizations that were included in pre-existing models rather than re-evaluating the underlying field experiments. Problems arise when limited field data exist, when “trusted” approaches do not get reevaluated, and when sensitivities fundamentally change in different environments. The physics and dynamics of snow interception by conifers is just such a case, and it is critical to simulation of the water budget and surface albedo. The most commonly used interception parameterization is based on data from four trees from one site, but results from this field study are not directly transferable to locations with relatively warmer winters, where the dominant processes differ dramatically. Here, we combine a literature review with model experiments to demonstrate needed improvements. Our results show that the choice of model form and parameters can vary the fraction of snow lost through interception by as much as 30%. In most simulations, the warming of mean winter temperatures from −7 to 0°C reduces the modelled fraction of snow under the canopy compared to the open, but the magnitude of simulated decrease varies from about 10% to 40%. The range of results is even larger when considering models that neglect the melting of in-canopy snow in higher-humidity environments where canopy sublimation plays less of a role. Thus, we recommend that all models represent canopy snowmelt and include representation of increased loading due to increased adhesion and cohesion when temperatures rise from −3 to 0°C. In addition to model improvements, field experiments across climates and forest types are needed to investigate how to best model the combination of dynamically changing forest cover and snow cover to better understand and predict changes to albedo and water supplies.     

MathCAD在地质模拟的数据分析和处理中的应用

地质模拟正从一维、二维技术向三维技术发展,需要分析和处理的数据成倍甚至上百倍增长.随着计算机技术的快速发展,数据分析和处理的速度也随之快速增长,但运用常规的编程来分析和处理这些数据费时又费力.而MathCAD具有解决这一问题的强大的数据分析、处理功能和仿真功能,将MathCAD应用于地质模拟的数据分析和处理中是十分必要的和可行的.本文简要介绍了MathCAD的功能和其在各类地质模拟的数据分析和处理中的应用.     

A direct analysis of flood interval probability using approximately 100-year streamflow datasets

ABSTRACT

Series of observed flood intervals, defined as the time intervals between successive flood peaks over a threshold, were extracted directly from 11 approximately 100-year streamflow datasets from Queensland, Australia. A range of discharge thresholds were analysed that correspond to return periods of approximately 3.7 months to 6.3 years. Flood interval histograms at South East Queensland gauges were consistently unimodal whereas those of the North and Central Queensland sites were often multimodal. The exponential probability distribution (pd) is often used to describe interval exceedence probabilities, but fitting utilizing the Anderson-Darling statistic found little evidence that it is the most suitable. The fatigue life pd dominated sub-year return periods (<1 year), often transitioning to a log Pearson 3 pd at above-year return periods. Fatigue life pd is used in analysis of the lifetime to structural failure when a threshold is exceeded, and this paper demonstrates its relevance also to the elapsed time between above-threshold floods. At most sites, the interval medians were substantially less than the means for sub-year return periods. Statistically the median is a better measure of the central tendency of skewed distributions but the mean is generally used in practice to describe the classical concept of flood return period.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor I. Nalbantis     

兴文石海世界地质公园SWOT分析和产品营销战略

兴文世界地质公园拥有全国及世界重要意义的"地球特大漏斗"、"中国最大的石海"和"中国最长的游览洞穴"等景观。采用SWOT分析法,对兴文石海世界地质公园的内部优势、劣势和外部机遇、挑战进行分析,提出了适宜的旅游产品营销战略,以改进其旅游产品和客源市场的开发。     

The knowledge–space dynamic in the UK bioeconomy

The loss of manufacturing employment to lower cost economies has meant that countries like the UK have sought to promote innovation in areas such as biotechnology. The emergence of the 'bioeconomy', however, has been highly uneven, with concentrations of activity in certain countries and particular regions in those countries. In the UK, for example, there are four major concentrations of the bioeconomy. Each of these concentrations exhibit distinct patterns of knowledge and spatial inputs into the innovation process, meaning that it is important to consider the knowledge–space dynamic in and of each region.     

Seasonal warm-water refuge and sanctuary usage by the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in Kings Bay,Citrus County,Florida

The largest Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) aggregation at a natural warm-water site occurs in Kings Bay, Crystal River, FL. In accordance with the Manatee Recovery Plan, manatee protection areas within Kings Bay have been created by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and the State of Florida including a year-round refuge designation and seven Federal manatee sanctuaries during the winter manatee season (15 November–31 March). Over the last 30 years, an increase in manatee counts has been observed in Kings Bay which has prompted the need to review existing manatee protection measures. Aerial survey data collected between 1983 and 2012 were used to examine the seasonal change in manatee distribution within Kings Bay to assess the effectiveness of current sanctuary sizes and locations. Regression analysis suggested a significant change in manatee abundance among the winter seasons (p < 0.05). The average winter manatee counts increased by 4.81 animals per year over the 30-year period. Spatially explicit maps using geographic information system (GIS) analysis revealed a strong correlation between high manatee density and artesian springs in Kings Bay during the winter seasons. Highest abundances were identified at three locations: King Spring, Three Sisters Springs, and Magnolia Springs, which coincide with preexisting sanctuary designations. Additional coverage is advocated to support the overflow of manatees outside of sanctuary boundaries. As density patterns were not uniform across summer periods, a consideration of additional boat speed regulations is recommended.     

The interannual variability of megafaunal assemblages in the Arctic deep sea: Preliminary results from the HAUSGARTEN observatory (79°N)

Although megafaunal organisms play an important role in deep benthic ecosystems and contribute significantly to benthic biomass in the Arctic little is known about their temporal dynamics. Here, we assessed the interannual dynamics of megafaunal organisms from the HAUSGARTEN observatory in the Fram Strait, an area where the effects of climatic forcing are particularly evident. We analysed three congruent camera transects taken in 2002, 2004 and 2007. Environmental parameters were measured in order to be able to put our faunal results into an environmental context.Our results indicate that although the densities of megafaunal species show different patterns over time, most exhibit an overall decrease between 2002 and 2007 and total megafaunal densities decreased regularly from 2002 to 2004 to 2007 (12.16±0.96 to 7.41±0.43 ind m⁻²). This concurs with a steady increase in bottom-water temperatures and a decrease in the total organic content and microbial biomass of surficial sediments at the same time period. Although suspension feeder densities also decreased, predator/scavenger and deposit feeder densities have declined to such an extent that suspension feeders accounted for almost 100% of the megafauna in 2007. It could thus be argued that the trophic diversity at the central HAUSGARTEN station (2500 m) has decreased. Temperature-related changes in the production of the surface layers may lead to changes in the quality and/or quantity of particles exported to the deep seafloor. The densities of deposit feeders (i.e. holothurians) peaked (1.14±0.13 ind m⁻²) in 2004, the year following the longest ice cover. These results indicate the importance of ice-related export of particles to the deep seafloor and highlight the need for time-series transects, especially in an era when productive marginal ice zones tend to disappear with the receding sea ice. Although there is a general consensus that the Arctic is in a transition towards a warmer state, only continued observation will allow us to assess if the interannual changes observed are a result of decadal cycles related to the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation or if they are indicators of long-term change.     

低应变基桩动测资料反演问题多解性与人工拟合的初步探讨

在实际低应变基桩动测资料解释工作中常发生误判,其原因除测试人员素质的主观因素外,客观上存在反演问题多解性亦是重要原因之一。这里从正演理论计算与物理概念上阐明,在一定桩土系统的物性、几何参数与拟合精度条件下,反演问题多解性是客观存在的。并且进一步探讨了进行人工拟合时应遵守的规则,正确运用此规则能尽量避免误判的产生。在此规则指导下,对易发生误判的实测曲线进行人工拟合,进一步说明了反演多解性问题的客观存在。