Low‐frequency modulation and trend of the relationship between ENSO and precipitation along the northern to centre Peruvian Pacific coast

The relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation along the Peruvian Pacific coast is investigated over 1964–2011 on the basis of a variety of indices accounting for the different types of El Niño events and atmospheric and oceanographic manifestations of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. We show the existence of fluctuations in the ENSO/precipitation relationship at decadal timescales that are associated with the ENSO property changes over the recent decades. Several indices are considered in order to discriminate the influence of the two types of El Niño, namely, the eastern Pacific El Niño and the central Pacific El Niño, as well as the influence of large‐scale atmospheric variability associated to the Madden and Julian Oscillation, and of regional oceanic conditions. Three main periods are identified that correspond to the interleave periods between the main climatic transitions over 1964–2011, i.e. the shifts of the 1970s and the 2000s, over which ENSO experiences significant changes in its characteristics. We show that the relationship between ENSO and precipitation along the western coast of Peru has experienced significant decadal change. Whereas El Niño events before 2000 lead to increased precipitation, in the 2000s, ENSO is associated to drier conditions. This is due to the change in the main ENSO pattern after 2000 that is associated to cooler oceanic conditions off Peru during warm events (i.e. central Pacific El Niño). Our analysis also indicates that the two extreme El Niño events of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 have overshadowed actual trends in the relationship between interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and precipitation along the coast of Peru. Overall, our study stresses on the complexity of the hydrological cycle on the western side of the Andes with regard to its relationship with the interannual to decadal variability in the tropical Pacific. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inter-annual simulation of global carbon cycle variations in a terrestrial–aquatic continuum

The advanced process-based model, National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE)-BGC, which incorporates the whole process of carbon cycling in land, was modified to include the feedback between soil organic content and overland carbon fluxes. It is a crucial and difficult task to evaluate the balance of the terrestrial carbon budget including the effect of inland water robustly. To accomplish this purpose, NICE-BGC was applied to quantify the global biogeochemical carbon cycle closely associated with the complex hydrological cycle during the 36 years between 1980 and 2015. The model demonstrated that the inter-annual variations of carbon cycle have been greatly affected by the extreme weather patterns. In particular, spatial distribution of temporal trends in riverine carbon fluxes and their relation to soil organic carbon (SOC) were analysed between different biomes and major river basins. Although there was a positive relationship between SOC and riverine flux of dissolved organic carbon and particulate organic carbon in the northern boreal region, it is difficult to see this relation in other regions. Further, the evaluation of potential controlling factors of temporal trends in SOC and fluvial carbon exports was also helpful to quantify the inter-annual variation or temporal trend caused by the various effects. SOC was more influenced by temperature variations, whereas riverine carbon exports were mainly determined by precipitation variations. Finally, net land flux including inland water (−1.49 ± 0.50 PgC/year) showed a slight decrease in the carbon sink in comparison with previous values (−2.33 ± 0.50 PgC/year). These results help to distinguish the carbon cycle in different river basins and to re-evaluate carbon cycle change explicitly including the effect of inland water because this effect has been so far implicitly included within the range of uncertainty in the Earth's global carbon cycle comprising land, oceans, and atmosphere.     

基于新型LE水平跳点网格的阴阳网格平流方案设计

为了模拟球面平流传输过程,本文基于球面阴阳重叠网格设计了一种两时间层半拉格朗日平流方案.该方案在球面坐标下采用新型的LE水平跳点网格,同时针对阴阳网格重叠区,采用了不同插值方法进行比较分析,且进行了相关的理想数值试验对方案设计效果进行评估.数值试验表明方案设计是成功的,阴阳网格重叠区平流对插值方案比较敏感;半拉格朗日方案能较好地模拟球面刚体平流和变形涡旋的结构、位置及演变过程,并具有较好的数值稳定性和较高的数值精度.     

Numerical Study of the Impacts of Urban Expansion on Meiyu Precipitation over Eastern China

The Yangtze River Delta(YRD) has experienced significant urban expansion in recent years, while the Meiyu belt of China has demonstrated a decadal northward shifting trend. Thus, it is of interest to assess how urban expansion affects Meiyu precipitation and hopefully to reveal the underlying physical mechanisms involved. In this study, the urban extents over the YRD in 2001 and 2010 are derived based on land use/land cover(LULC) category data and nighttime light image data. Two parallel groups of10-summer(2001–2010) numerical simulations are carried out with the urban extents over the YRD in2001 and 2010, respectively. The results show that the urban expansion in the YRD tends to result in increased(decreased) Meiyu precipitation over the Huaihe River(Yangtze River) basin with intensities of0.2–1.2 mm day-1. Further analysis indicates that the spatiotemporal pattern of the Meiyu precipitation change induced by the urban expansion resembles the third empirical orthogonal function(EOF) mode of the observed Meiyu precipitation. Analyses of the possible underlying physical mechanisms reveal that urban expansion in the YRD leads to changes in the surface energy balance and warming(cooling) of tropospheric(stratospheric) air temperature over eastern China. Anomalous upward(downward) motion and moisture convergence(divergence) over the Huaihe River(Yangtze River) basin occur, corresponding to the increases(decreases) of the Meiyu precipitation over the Huaihe River(Yangtze River) basin.     

Evaluation of CMIP5 Climate Models in Simulating 1979–2005 Oceanic Latent Heat Flux over the Pacific

The climatological mean state,seasonal variation and long-term upward trend of 1979–2005 latent heat flux(LHF) in historical runs of 14 coupled general circulation models from CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) are evaluated against OAFlux(Objectively Analyzed air–sea Fluxes) data. Inter-model diversity of these models in simulating the annual mean climatological LHF is discussed. Results show that the models can capture the climatological LHF fairly well,but the amplitudes are generally overestimated. Model-simulated seasonal variations of LHF match well with observations with overestimated amplitudes. The possible origins of these biases are wind speed biases in the CMIP5 models. Inter-model diversity analysis shows that the overall stronger or weaker LHF over the tropical and subtropical Pacific region,and the meridional variability of LHF,are the two most notable diversities of the CMIP5 models. Regression analysis indicates that the inter-model diversity may come from the diversity of simulated SST and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity.Comparing the observed long-term upward trend,the trends of LHF and wind speed are largely underestimated,while trends of SST and air specific humidity are grossly overestimated,which may be the origins of the model biases in reproducing the trend of LHF.     

Characterisation of Apatites as Potential Uranium Reference Materials for Fission‐track Dating by LA‐ICP‐MS

We report homogeneity tests on large natural apatite crystals to evaluate their potential as U reference materials for apatite fission‐track (AFT) thermochronology by laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS). The homogeneity tests include the measurements of major element concentrations by electron probe microanalysis (EPMA), whereas for U concentration, isotope dilution (ID) ICP‐MS and laser ablation (LA) ICP‐MS were employed. Two apatite crystals are potential reference materials for LA‐ICP‐MS analysis: a 1 cm³ fraction of a Durango crystal (7.5 μg g^?1 U) and a 1 cm³ Mud Tank crystal (6.9 μg g^?1 U). The relative standard deviation (1 RSD) of the U concentration determined by ID‐ICP‐MS of both apatite crystals was ≤ 1.5%, whereas 1 RSD for the LA‐ICP‐MS results was better than 4%, providing sufficient homogeneity for fission‐track dating. The results on the U homogeneity for two different apatite samples are an important step towards establishing in situ dating routines for AFT analysis by LA‐ICP‐MS.     

白龙江干流代表站径流变化特征及未来趋势预测

白龙江引水工程被列入国家确定的172项重大水利工程项目之一,分析研究白龙江干流代表站径流变化特征并进行未来趋势预测,为实施白龙江引水工程提供技术支撑。对白龙江干流白云、舟曲、武都、碧口4个代表站1956~2013年的实测径流系列资料进行分析,采用周期波均值外延叠加模型、谐波分析模型和逐步回归分析模型组合形成的加法模型对代表站未来径流变化趋势进行分析预测。结果表明:(1)该4站9月份多年平均流量占全年径流量比例最大,主汛期6~9月多年平均流量占全年径流量比例达到50%左右。(2)4个水文站多年径流量变化趋势呈现出逐渐缓慢减少的趋势,上游减少的幅度比下游小。(3)预测2015、2020、2025年年径流量的结果是:白云水文站均小于多年平均值,武都水文站均大于多年均值,舟曲和碧口水文站在多年均值上下浮动。     

1956—2010年中国水热季节性特征分析

流域水文平衡不仅决定于降水和潜在蒸散发总量,而且还受到其年内季节性变化特征的影响。收集1956—2010年中国743个国家级气象站逐日气候资料,采用FAO-Penman公式计算潜在蒸散发量,插值计算10 km网格日降水和潜在蒸发,进行水热季节性特征的变化分析。结果表明,82.8%的区域潜在蒸散发量均值有下降趋势,但减少量不大,同时其年内季节性特征没有显著变化。表征降水年内波动振幅的季节性指数在全国范围均有显著下降趋势,且北方流域更为明显,变化率最大的西北诸河达到6.4%/10 a;峰值时间和雨季长度则变化不显著。这种水热季节性的变化被认为会导致流域径流的减少,在今后中国径流变化的归因研究中,应该考虑降水季节性变化的贡献。     

近48年浙江省不同等级降水变化特征分析

利用浙江省62站1971-2018年逐日降水资料,从不同等级降水日数、强度等对不同等级降水变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：浙江省不同等级降水日数主要存现由北向南递增的分布;浙江总降水日数先减少,2009年后有所增加,而降水强度为显著的增加,而小雨日数以减少趋势为主,暴雨日数1986年之后呈显著增加趋势,不同等级降水强度均呈现增加趋势;其中对年降水量贡献最大的是中雨,但小雨和中雨的占比均明显减少,暴雨占比增加较快。     

昆明地区降水量时空分布特征

近年来由于降水异常所带来的干旱、城市内涝等气象灾害越来越受到人们的关注.采用回归方法对昆明12个大监站近43年来的降水量时空变化特征进行分析,发现昆明地区年降水量减少,春、夏、秋的降水也减少,但冬季降水略增加;年、四季降水有较为明显年代际变化趋势,且存在一个或多个突变点.降水量变化具有一定的区域分布特征,市区及以东以南地区夏季及年降水量偏少显著,春季降水西北部地区偏多其余偏少,秋季降水为一致减少型,冬季降水西南部减少其余大部持平或略增加.