甘改—玉树断裂带的近代地震与未来地震趋势估计

通过对甘改－玉树断裂带上近代地震的震级，震中位置和地震地表破裂的空间展布特征的研究，采用Ｎｉｓｈｅｎｋｏ和Ｂｕｌａｎｄ发展的“特征地震复发时间通用分布”概率模型，即“ＮＢ”模型，对甘孜玉树断裂带各段落未来５０ａ内强震趋势进行了估计。     

径流的趋势分析和概率预测

对永定河流域的官厅水库和汾河流域的汾河水库1950年以来水库入流的趋势变化进行了研究,并对引起这一变化的气象因子和人类活动影响因素作了分析。研究结果表明,降水的多年波动在一段时期可能出现的趋势变化以及流域内农业、林业和城市用水的逐年增长是影响径流趋势变化的主要因素。根据历史资料和今后人类活动的可能情况,对未来水平年的径流变化进行了概率预测。     

汉诺坝玄武岩化学及其演化趋势

汉诺坝玄武岩于中新世喷出。除了碱性玄武岩以外,夏威夷岩广泛分布,还有苦橄玄武岩和马盖尔岩。有三个岩浆演化趋势:地壳岩浆房内橄榄石和单斜辉石斑晶组合的分离作用产生了从夏威夷岩到马盖尔岩的肯尼迪分异趋势;莫霍面附近的岩浆房内石榴石、普通辉石、歪长石和钛铁矿巨晶组合的分离作用导致了由原生夏威夷岩和碱性玄武岩经过进化的夏威夷岩和碱性玄武岩到拉斑玄武岩的跨式B型分异趋势;原生岩浆演化趋势。     

白云鄂博辉长岩

白云鄂博辉长岩类包括淡辉长岩—辉长岩—碱性辉长岩。它们是由岩浆结晶分异过程形成的一套系列。在岩浆演化晚期阶段有碱金属和大离子亲石元素及轻稀土的一定程度的富集。     

Estimating Variogram Uncertainty

The variogram is central to any geostatistical survey, but the precision of a variogram estimated from sample data by the method of moments is unknown. It is important to be able to quantify variogram uncertainty to ensure that the variogram estimate is sufficiently accurate for kriging. In previous studies theoretical expressions have been derived to approximate uncertainty in both estimates of the experimental variogram and fitted variogram models. These expressions rely upon various statistical assumptions about the data and are largely untested. They express variogram uncertainty as functions of the sampling positions and the underlying variogram. Thus the expressions can be used to design efficient sampling schemes for estimating a particular variogram. Extensive simulation tests show that for a Gaussian variable with a known variogram, the expression for the uncertainty of the experimental variogram estimate is accurate. In practice however, the variogram of the variable is unknown and the fitted variogram model must be used instead. For sampling schemes of 100 points or more this has only a small effect on the accuracy of the uncertainty estimate. The theoretical expressions for the uncertainty of fitted variogram models generally overestimate the precision of fitted parameters. The uncertainty of the fitted parameters can be determined more accurately by simulating multiple experimental variograms and fitting variogram models to these. The tests emphasize the importance of distinguishing between the variogram of the field being surveyed and the variogram of the random process which generated the field. These variograms are not necessarily identical. Most studies of variogram uncertainty describe the uncertainty associated with the variogram of the random process. Generally however, it is the variogram of the field being surveyed which is of interest. For intensive sampling schemes, estimates of the field variogram are significantly more precise than estimates of the random process variogram. It is important, when designing efficient sampling schemes or fitting variogram models, that the appropriate expression for variogram uncertainty is applied.     

趋势面分析在山西朔州王坪井田构造研究中的应用

针对王坪井田3号煤层底板起伏变化大．严重影响开拓及采煤巷道布置的现状．利用趋势面分析的方法．分析了井田内的构造展布规律．研究表明．井田在主向斜的基础上．存在次级背斜和NE和NW两组断裂．与本区受到多期次的构造应力场作用相吻合．得出的3号煤层底板高程二次趋势面方程．可为3号煤层开拓及采煤巷道的设计提供地质依据．     

Comparing liquefaction evaluation methods using penetration-VS relationships

Three methods that follow the general format of the Seed-Idriss simplified procedure for evaluating liquefaction resistance of soils are compared in this paper. They are compared by constructing relationships between penetration resistance and small-strain shear–wave velocity (V_S) implied from cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) curves for the three methods, and by plotting penetration-V_S data pairs. The penetration-V_S data pairs are from 43 Holocene-age sand layers in California, South Carolina, Canada, and Japan. It is shown that the V_S-based CRR curve is more conservative than CRR curves based on the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) and Cone Penetration Test (CPT), for the compiled Holocene data. This result agrees with the findings of a recent probability study where the SPT-, CPT-, and V_S-based CRR curves were characterized as curves with average probability of liquefaction of 31, 50, and 26%, respectively. New SPT- and CPT-based CRR equations are proposed that provide more consistent assessments of liquefaction potential for the Holocene sand layers considered.     

The BDS statistic and residual test

 The conventional nonparametric tests have been widely used in many fields for the residual analysis of a fitted model on observations. Also, in recent, a new technique called the BDS (Brock–Dechert–Scheinkman) statistic has been shown that it can be used as a powerful tool for the residual analysis, especially, of a nonlinear system. The purpose of this study is to compare the powers of the nonparametric tests and BDS statistic by residual analysis of the fitted models. This study evaluates stochastic models for four monthly rainfalls in Korea through the residual analysis by using the conventional nonparametric and BDS statistics. We use SARIMA and AR Error models for fitting each rainfall and perform the residual analysis by using the test techniques. As a result, we find that the BDS statistic is more reasonable than the conventional nonparametric tests for the residual analysis and AR Error model may be more appropriate than SARIMA model for modeling of monthly rainfalls. This work was supported by grant No. R01-2001-000-00474-0 from the Basic Research Program of the Korea Science & Engineering Foundation.     

汪清7.2级深震与黑龙江省及其临近地区地震活动趋势分析

20世纪以来，东北地区7级以上强深震与东北地区浅源中强地震活动在时间上表现出很强的相关性。认为汪清7．2级强深震后，黑龙江省及邻区发生5级以上中强震的危险性增大。