用三维趋势面分析分离位场异常

位场趋势化不但发生在水平方向上，而且也发生在垂直方向上。本文主要讨论如何用三维趋势面分析方法分离位场异常，并给出了两个成功的计算实例。     

Biometrical analysis of generation differences in the Cretaceous foraminiferal species Gabonella elongata

Six morphometrical characters are analyzed on each of 64-specimens of Gabonella elongata, de Klasz & Meijer (1960), picked out from the same level in the Upper Campanian part of a borehole core from western Nigeria. Multivariate statistical analyzes by means of standard methods, show the existence of trimorphism with one microspheric and two megalospheric generations, in this paper denoted Me1 and Me2. The generations are well separated by differences in size, morphological variability and ontogeny. There is a tendency for a reduction in size of the last chamber in the megalospheric populations, especially in Me1.     

气象部门高层次人才队伍发展趋势研究

人才是气象事业高质量发展的基础。气象部门高层次人才是指在气象部门从事专业技术工作,具备优良的素质,良好的职业道德和团队协作精神,有较高业务水平、科研水平,在推进气象事业发展中有较高贡献,起到示范和带动作用的科技型人才。加强气象部门高层次人才队伍建设,是气象事业高质量发展的迫切要求。对气象部门高层次人才发展趋势进行了分析,构建预测模型对未来5年气象部门高层次人才队伍发展进行了预测。     

Allozyme genotypes and tolerance to copper stress in Hediste diversicolor (Polychaeta: Nereididae)

This study analysed the occurrence of genotypic shifts in laboratory populations of Hediste diversicolor (Polychaeta: Nereididae) exposed to copper stress. Specimens of H. diversicolor were collected at three sites, up to 10 km apart, in the estuarine area of the Pialassa lagoons (North Adriatic Sea, Italy) and were used in acute toxicity tests. Specimens were assigned to copper exposure (0.34 mg/l Cu2+) or control conditions. Each combination of Treatment and Site was replicated in two tanks containing 35 specimens of H. diversicolor. The genotypic structure of both dead and survived specimens was analysed by allozyme electrophoresis at six loci (ALD, FH, HBDH LDH, PGI, SDH). Under copper exposure, specimens with the genotypes ALD100/100 and PGI102/102 had significantly lower mortalities than other genotypes Results were consistent across the three sites, suggesting that, under laboratory conditions, effects of copper stress on H. diversicolor is related to individual genotypes at ALD and PGI loci.     

青藏高原及邻区新生代火山岩Sr-Nd-Pb同位素特征

笔者在综合分析最近十多年来的Sr、Nd、Pb同位素资料基础上,重点研究了青藏高原及邻区新生代火山岩岩浆源区在时空上的变化规律。结果表明：①冈底斯中段火山岩的岩浆源区逐渐从普通地幔向EMⅡ方向演化;西段晚期火山岩源区的演化方向为俯冲带壳幔混合源→造山带上地壳源→下地壳源。②西羌塘岩浆源区主要为不具富集或亏损的幔源物质;囊谦盆地、大理海东火山岩源区较深,为大洋型软流圈地幔 消减组分混合源;藏北羊湖、雄鹰台—鲸鱼湖、西昆仑以及北羌塘巴毛穷宗火山岩的岩浆源区为EMⅡ;鱼鳞山超钾质火山岩为经历了大陆地壳物质强烈交代作用的EMⅡ型岩浆源区;西秦岭火山岩源于亏损地幔,腾冲新生代火山岩源区为受到地壳物质交代的EMⅡ。③西羌塘、可可西里、西昆仑和腾冲新生代火山岩具两种演化趋势——鱼鳞山、普鲁、雄鹰台—鲸鱼湖岩区和腾冲火山群向EMⅡ方向演化,而泉水沟、黑石北湖、阿什库勒则分别沿0Ma的地幔—上地壳混合线方向演化。④青藏高原及邻区新生代火山岩至少存在4种不同的岩浆源区。     

川西地震概况及发展趋势

X形活动断裂带控制着川、滇两省大多数主要地震的发生,如“翘翘板”两端之互动。经过作者对川、滇两省现代发震活动的研究,对攀西地区作出多次安全预报,受到当地政府和广大群众的重视。     

1948—2001年全球陆地春季降水长期变化的时空特征

利用全球陆地月降水资料(PREC/L)中3个月的资料,研究了1948—2001年全球陆地3—5月降水长期变化的时空特征。结果表明,1948—2001年,全球3—5月的降水量以负趋势为主要变化特征,明显减少的区域是:热带非洲、亚洲中西部、中国中东部、俄罗斯东部、南极的恩德比地和威尔克斯地等9个地区;降水量增加的区域是:俄罗斯西北部、美国西北部、加拿大西南部、南美洲南部、加拿大北部等7个地区。还研究了35个纬圈3—5月平均降水量的趋势系数。在分析全球季节降水量与ENSO的关系中,指出春季是春夏秋三季中最不显著的。     

应用多因子复相关法制作降雨趋势预测

气候是各种气象要素的综合反映,这些要素如气压、气温、湿度、风、日照等诸因子是一些随时间、空间不断改变着的随机变量,它们之间互相联系、互相制约,客观上存在着一定的关系。多因子复相关法就是利用这些要素之间的相互作用对预报对象的影响力(或叫贡献力)制作一种模式,对未来天气进行预测的一种方法。近年来,在天气预报中得到广泛运用。通过实践应用证明,多因子复相关法预报降雨趋势具有明显的效果,对于搞好短期气候预测工作和气象服务工作具有一定的借鉴作用。     

THE SENSITIVITY TEST STUDY OF AIR-SEA SURFACE FLUX MODEL

In this article, a sensitivity test of air-sea surface flux model was carried out with the field observation data of Project “South China Sea Air-Sea Flux Measurement in 2000”. The results show that sensible heat fluxes are sensitive to observation errors, increasing the error of model calculation; In contrast, the latent heat flux and momentum flux are not as sensitive to observation errors as the sensible heat, and their calculated results are reliable. The test result also verifies…     

A procedure for testing the assumption of homoscedasticity in least squares residuals: a case study of GPS carrier-phase observations

Due to increased demands on the quality of the results of Global Positioning System (GPS) evaluations, various authors have studied improvements of the stochastic model of GPS carrier-phase observations. These improvements are based on the reasonable assumption that the commonly used stochastic model with independent and homoscedastic (i.e. equal variance) errors is unrealistic. However, this has not been proved rigorously so far. A statistical test procedure based on uncorrelated least–squares residuals, which allows verification of the hypothesis of a heterogeneous variance, is provided. The statistical test procedure is of interest in its own right, and is independent of the practical problem considered. The presented technique is applied to GPS carrier-phase observations. Results show that the variances of the investigated observations are far from homogeneous. It is indicated that the error variances of the presented data increase with decreasing GPS satellite elevation. These results confirm the assumption that the commonly used stochastic model of GPS observations is inadequate and has to be improved.