武汉市气候变暖与极端天气事件变化的归因分析

根据武汉市1951—2007年间年平均、最高、最低气温与8类年极端天气日数的序列,计算分析其变化趋势及年平均气温与极端天气日数的相关性,引入格兰杰因果性检验法,探讨气候变暖与极端天气事件之间的因果关系。结果发现:(1)近57年来武汉市年平均最低气温增幅为0.45℃/10a,明显高于年平均最高气温0.19℃/10a的增幅,可见气候变暖主要是由夜间气温升高所致;(2)高温和闷热天气事件为增多趋势,其中闷热天气事件最明显,达到2.8 d/10a,而年雷暴、降雪、低温、大风、雾日则均为下降趋势,雷暴、雾和低温事件降幅明显,每10年减少3.0 d、4.0 d和2.1 d。大风和降雪事件,每10年减少1.8 d和1.5 d。暴雨事件波动幅度较小。(3)年平均气温与当年及超前、滞后1～2年的极端天气事件具有高相关性;(4)格兰杰因果性检验结果发现,气候变暖是闷热天气增多和降雪事件减少的原因,同时亦是大风和低温减少的结果。这种因果关系的存在对极端天气事件预测和预估有重要的价值。     

插拔桩靴对临近桩靴承载力的影响研究

自升式钻井船桩靴的插拔过程将会对临近井口平台的桩靴基础产生不利影响。开展了室内模型试验研究,将试验结果与理论分析结果相结合,得到了桩靴插拔的影响范围及影响范围内土体强度的变化规律,并推导了桩靴插拔影响区内临近桩靴承载力的计算方法,与模型试验结果进行了对比验证。研究表明,桩靴插拔后砂土相对密实度降低,其降低程度随距桩靴距离的增加而逐渐减小,影响范围约为1倍桩靴直径。受桩靴插拔影响,临近桩靴的承载力下降,降低比例随两桩靴相对间距的增大而减小,随桩靴相对插深的增加而增加。当两桩靴相对间距大于2倍插拔桩靴直径时,可认为桩靴插拔对临近桩靴基础承载力无影响。     

用趋势面分析方法提高模拟退火法反演的效率

利用模拟退火反演过程中废弃的随机搜索的模型解信息, 建立起目标函数的二阶趋势面, 根据趋势面的分析结果预测和指导模拟退火的搜索方向, 使模拟退火法快速地收敛到全局最优解.数值试验证明, 这种方法比传统模拟退火法的计算效率高出十倍以上.      

The new wave overtopping database for coastal structures

Significant effort has been made to generate a homogeneous database on wave overtopping consisting of more than 10,000 irregular wave overtopping tests from more than 160 independent projects or test series, each described by means of 31 parameters. Many coastal structures, including dikes, rubble mound breakwaters, berm breakwaters, caisson structures and combinations have been considered and have been schematised for inclusion in the database. All these overtopping tests are represented by over 300,000 numbers in the database.     

长白山天池火山岩浆系统分析

针对外媒报道长白山天池火山在近2年内有可能喷发的言论,在长白山天池火山区布测了一条长度约为103 km的二维大地电磁测深观测剖面,对火山区深部电性结构进行探测研究.由于研究区内不明来源的电磁干扰非常强,对数据采用了远参考处理、Robust处理、Rhoplus分析、张量阻抗分解和基于一维层状介质电阻率与相位互算方法等先进处理技术,获取到一批在强干扰区质量较为可靠的电磁数据,利用数据计算分析了长白山天池火山区二维构造走向和感应矢量特征,采用NLCG二维反演技术对资料进行了二维反演解释,并将反演结果与前人探测结果进行了对比分析.探测结果表明:在天池火山口下方存在明显的直立型岩浆通道,岩浆通道在下方约5~8 km位置形成关闭;在火山口下方往北方向附近,在埋深位置约7 km深处存在一个明显的低阻异常体,电阻率小于10 Ωm,且与岩浆通道对接,推测其可能是地表浅部发育的岩浆囊;在长白山山门附近C07-C09号测点之间和C04-C05号测点之间,在埋深约7~17 km深处发现近直立型低阻带,低阻带与下方低阻体直接相连,推测低阻带内赋存有活动的岩浆;随着埋深的增加,从天池火山口南部约20 km位置往北方向,在埋深13~30 km之间壳内广泛发育明显的低阻异常体,推测其可能是活动的岩浆囊.反演结果与前人探测结果整体电性特征相似,但又局部不同.     

长江上游区域蒸发皿蒸发量变化及其对水分循环的影响

利用长江上游最近30年(66个测站)蒸发皿蒸发量和最近50年(90个测站)的7种气象要素,分析了蒸发皿蒸发量的区域变化趋势和影响蒸发皿蒸发量变化的因素;针对7个水文站的年径流量变化,探讨了蒸发皿蒸发量变化后对水分循环的影响.结果表明,长江上游蒸发皿蒸发量的变化可以划分为三个分区,研究区域东西两侧(青藏高原和大巴山一带)为显著减少区,分别命名为RⅠ和RⅡ,中间(云贵高原北部到黄土高原南缘以及由二者包围的四川盆地一带)为显著增大区,命名为RⅢ区.影响区域蒸发皿蒸发量变化的原因各有不同,青藏高原一带(RⅠ区)蒸发皿蒸发量减少的原因可归结于太阳辐射强度和风动力扰动减弱所致.大巴山一带(RⅡ区)减少原因是太阳辐射强度、风动力扰动强度、湿度条件都在显著下降所引起的.云贵高原到四川盆地一带(RⅢ区)蒸发皿蒸发量增加是环境气温强烈升高,导致其上空大气水汽含量显著减少,大气很干燥,引发蒸发过程加强所致.蒸发皿蒸发量发生变化的直接后果就是导致水分循环强弱发生变化,对于RⅠ区,尽管蒸发皿蒸发量减少,由于降水量和径流量增加的作用,这一区域的水分循环有所加强.在RⅡ区,降水量、径流量和蒸发量都在减少,因此RⅡ区水分循环显著减弱.在RⅢ区,降水量和径流量同时减少,而蒸发量增大,水量消耗增大,因此RⅢ区水分循环有减弱趋势.     

A field study of the coupled effects of aquifer stratification,fluid density,and groundwater fluctuations on dispersivity assessments

A number of experimental studies have tackled the issue of solute transport parameter assessments either in the laboratory or in the field. But yet, the behavior of a plume in the field under density driven forces, is not well known due to possible development of instabilities. Some field tracer tests on the fate of plumes denser than native groundwater such as those encountered under waste disposal facilities, have pointed out the processes of sinking and splitting at the early stage of migration. The process of dispersion was widely investigated, but the range of dispersivity values obtained from either experimental tests, or numerical and theoretical calculations is still very large, even for the same type of aquifers. These discrepancies were considered to be essentially caused by soil heterogeneities and scale effects. In the meantime, studies on the influence of sinking and fingering have remained more scarce. The objective of the work is to analyze how transport parameters such as dispersivities can be affected by unstable conditions, which lead to plume sinking and fingering. A series of tracer tests were carried out to study under natural conditions, the transport of a dense chloride solution injected in a shallow two-layered aquifer. Two types of experiments were performed: in the first type, source injection was such that the plume could travel downward from one layer to the other of higher pore velocity, and in the second one, the migration took place only in the faster layer. The results suggest some new insights in the processes occurring at the early stages of a dense plume migration moving in a stratified aquifer under groundwater fluctuations, which can be summarized through the following points: (i) Above a stability criterion threshold, a fingering process and a multi modal plume transport take place, but local dispersivities can be cautiously derived, using breakthrough curves matching. (ii) When water table is subject to some cycling or rising, the plume can be significantly distorted in the transverse direction, leading to unusual values of the ratio between longitudinal and transverse dispersivities. (iii) Under stable conditions, for example in the case of straightforward injection in the faster aquifer layer, longitudinal dispersivity is greater than the transverse component as usually encountered, and the obtained transport parameters are closed to macro dispersivity values, which reach their asymptotic limit at very short distances. (iv) The classical scale effect about the varying dispersivity at short distances could be a process mainly due to the distance required for a plume stabilization.     

利用循环强度分析张紧式吸力锚循环承载力的方法

按照在最佳系泊点受倾斜荷载作用的张紧式吸力锚的破坏机制,建议了利用软土不排水循环剪切强度计算软土中吸力锚循环承载力的极限平衡分析方法。该方法考虑了平均系泊荷载在土中引起的平均剪应力对土体循环剪切强度、进而对锚循环承载力的影响。为了说明该方法的可行性,进行了大量张紧式吸力锚在平均系泊荷载与循环荷载共同作用下的承载力模型试验。依据试验结果确定了锚被竖向拔出土层时系泊点的位移破坏标准,并据此确定了与不同模型试验条件对应的循环承载力。进而利用循环三轴试验确定的土层不排水循环强度随平均应力的变化关系和实测的土层剪切强度,通过极限平衡分析计算了与模型试验对应的循环承载力。计算与模型试验结果比较表明,对于张紧式吸力锚被竖向拔出土层的破坏模式,计算结果比模型试验结果偏大,平均偏大1.9%,绝大多数偏差在10%以内。因此,对于软土中的张紧式吸力锚,如果采用该方法计算与竖向拔出土层破坏模式相应的循环承载力时,将结果减小10%是恰当的。     

西南地区近21年来NDVI变化特征分析

利用美国国家航天航空局（NASA）归一化植被指数（GIMMS NDVI）资料,初步分析了近21年（1982~2002）来西南地区植被变化特征。结果发现：21年来西南地区植被覆盖状况较好,总体呈增加趋势,同时也存在较明显的季节和区域差异：春季西南大部分地区植被呈较明显的增加趋势。夏季全区NDVI以显著的减小趋势为主,尤以90年代中期以后更为明显。秋季NDVI与夏季类似同样表现为减少趋势,并且范围有所增加。冬季ND-VI以增加为主,存在明显的东西反向特征,东部以减少为主,西部则以增加为主。     

房地产计税价格批量评估实证研究

结合批量评估的技术思路,以深圳市二手住宅计税价格批量评估为例,构建了以长期趋势法,成本法为基本原理,结合地理信息技术(GIS)的批量评估模型,并提出研究结论与未来发展设想.