宁夏盐池县土地沙质荒漠化的发展趋势及其防治

宁夏盐池县是我国北方农牧交错带沙质荒漠化强烈发展的地区之一。通过分析该区土地沙质荒漠化的发展趋势及其成因，认为该区土地沙质荒漠化有日趋扩大、日益严重的发展趋势；在潜在自然因素的基础上，人为因素是造成该区土地沙质荒漠化的主要因素。针对该区土地沙质荒漠化的发展趋势及其成因，结合沙质荒漠化土地的农林牧综合开发，提出了防治土地沙质荒漠化的目标、实施步骤及基本对策。     

西藏古乡沟泥石流发展趋势

1950年地震造成的大规模雪崩、冰崩及崩塌,堵塞古乡沟中游沟道,在降雨、气温及冰雪融水作用下,1953年溃决成特大冰川泥石流,流量达2.86万m~3/s。随着流域内补给物质的转移,古乡沟泥石流的规模、容重、暴发频率可能会减弱。     

探地雷达技术及其应用和发展

作者对近年来探地雷达的技术发展及新的应用研究进行了概括和总结。在详细分析探地雷达方法原理、系统结构的基础上,提出了改进探地雷达系统结构的思路;同时,针对探地雷达工作中的高噪声和地震数据处理技术移植的不适应性,提出了探地雷达地下界面高分辨率成像的新方法。     

The temporal and spatial characteristics of the surface air temperature variations over the Antarctic and its surrounding area

The characteristics of the spatial distribution, temporal variations trend and oscillation for the surface air temperature variations during 1957—1993 in the Antarctic and its surrounding area were analyzed. The results show that the short-time climate change in the Antarctic is complex both temporally and spatially. The Antarctic is by no means the strongest responding region to the global greenhouse effect. There is a distinguished difference in the trends of the temperature changes for the Antarctic and global mean, which could not be explained simply by the global greenhouse effect. Project supported by the National Antarctic Key Project of China (85-905).     

由一组显著地震活动看地震应力场的"聚""散"过程

2002年8月21日至10月20日，华北地区发生了一组显著地震活动。通过该组显著地震活动的时空分布特点，分析了华北地区这一轮地震应力场的“聚”“散”过程，讨论了华北块体北缘地震带及与之紧邻的内蒙古西乌珠穆沁旗地震区未来的活动趋势，所得认识对今后该区的震情动态跟踪监视、趋势估计乃至地震短期预测判断具有一定的现实意义。     

A Physical and Numerical Investigation on the Stability of Shallow Tunnels in Strain Softening Media

Summary The behaviour up to failure of shallow underground openings is discussed on the basis of some laboratory, small-scale model tests and of finite element simulation. The experimental results are first illustrated. They were obtained from two-dimensional (plane strain) and three-dimensional tunnel models tested under standard gravity conditions. Then, the phenomenon of strain localisation that characterizes the medium surrounding the model tunnels is discussed, recalling two alternative approaches for its numerical interpretation. On this basis, a finite element procedure for strain softening analyses is outlined and applied to the simulation of the tests in both two- and three-dimensional conditions. The comparison between experimental and numerical results leads to some conclusions on the influence of strain localisation on the overall behaviour of shallow tunnels and on the stability of their headings.     

Transformation of Residuals to Avoid Artifacts in Geostatistical Modelling with a Trend

Trend modelling is an important part of natural resource characterization. A common approach to account for a variable with a trend is to decompose it into a relatively smoothly varying trend and a more variable residual component. Then, the residuals are stochastically modelled independent of the trend. This decomposition can result in values outside the plausible range of variability, such as grades below zero or ratios that exceed 1.0. We transform the residuals conditional to the trend component to explicitly remove these complex features prior to geostatistical modelling. Back transformation of the modelled residual values allows the complex relations to be reproduced. A petroleum-related application shows the robustness of the proposed transformation. Furthermore, a mining application shows that when this conditional transformation is applied to the original variable, instead of the residual, simulated values are assured to be nonnegative.     

西风带研究动态

本文较为详细地介绍了影响我国气候的重要因子——西风带的一些国内外最新研究动态,这些研究动态和研究成果将对山西省的气候研究起到积极作用。     

Strain accumulation in sand due to cyclic loading: drained triaxial tests

Our aim is the prediction of the accumulation of strain and/or stress under cyclic loading with many (thousands to millions) cycles and relatively small amplitudes. A high-cycle constitutive model is used for this purpose. Its formulas are based on numerous cyclic tests. This paper describes drained tests with triaxial compression and uniaxial stress cycles. The influence of the strain amplitude, the average stress, the density, the cyclic preloading history and the grain size distribution on the direction and the intensity of strain accumulation is discussed.     

Determining the maximum degree of harmonic coefficients in geopotential models by Monte Carlo methods

Random errors for the harmonic coefficients of a geopotential model are generated from the matrix of normal equations by a parallel computer applying the Gibbs sampler. This leads to random values for the harmonic coefficients. They are transformed by nonlinear, quadratic transformations to random values for the square roots of degree variances, of mean squares of geoid undulations and gravity anomalies. The expected values of these quantities are not equal to the values of these quantities computed by the estimated harmonic coefficients, due to correlations and errors in the estimation. By hypothesis tests estimated harmonic coefficients distorted by correlations and errors are detected. Applying the tests to the geopotential model ITG-CHAMP01 of the Institute of Theoretical Geodesy in Bonn it is concluded that above the degree 62 the harmonic coefficients cannot add any information to the geopotential model.