A review of the climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf hurricanes for wind, wave, and surge hazard estimation

The climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf of Mexico hurricanes are presented, focusing on the basic parameters needed for accurately determining the structure and intensity of hurricanes for ocean response models. These include the maximum sustained wind, radius of maximum winds, the Holland-B parameter, the peripheral or far-field pressure, the surface roughness and coefficient of drag, and the central pressure for historical hurricanes in the Gulf.Despite evidence of a slight increase in the annual number of named storms over the past 50 years, presently there is no statistically significant trend in tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the long-term variability of tropical cyclones in the Gulf reflects the observed variability in the Atlantic basin as a whole. Analyses of hurricane winds from multiple sources suggest the presence of a bias toward overestimating the strength of winds in the HURDAT dataset from 7% to 15%. Results presented comparing HURDAT with other sources also show an overestimation of intensity at landfall, with an estimated bias of ~10%.Finally, a review of recent studies has shown that hurricane frequencies and intensities appear to vary on a much more localized scale than previously believed. This exacerbates the sampling problem for accurate characterization of hurricane parameters for design and operational applications.     

ZnO压敏陶瓷冲击老化的电子陷阱过程研究

使用8/20 μs脉冲电流发生器对普通商用ZnO陶瓷压敏电阻片进行了最多5000次的冲击试验.测量了冲击前后试样的电气性能和介电特性,分析了冲击后小电流区的U-I特性和损耗角正切值tanδ随脉冲大电流的不断作用而发生的变化.实验发现压敏电压U1mA随冲击次数的增加经历增大—稳定—减小三个过程.认为正反偏Schottky势垒的中性费米能级的变化是影响样品小电流区的最根本原因.本文提出用试样的非线性系数α作为老化特征参数比传统的U     

Spatial pattern formation of a ratio-dependent predator—prey model

This paper presents a theoretical analysis of evolutionary process that involves organisms distribution and their interaction of spatially distributed population with diffusion in a Holling-III ratio-dependent predator--prey model, the sufficient conditions for diffusion-driven instability with Neumann boundary conditions are obtained. Furthermore, it presents novel numerical evidence of time evolution of patterns controlled by diffusion in the model, and finds that the model dynamics exhibits complex pattern replication, and the pattern formation depends on the choice of the initial conditions. The ideas in this paper may provide a better understanding of the pattern formation in ecosystems.     

Ocean acidification: Separating evidence from judgment – A reply to Dupont et al.

Recently ocean acidification as a major threat for marine species has moved from a consensus statement into a much discussed and even challenged conception. A simple meta-analysis of Hendriks et al. (2010) showed that based on results of pooled experimental evidence, marine biota may turn out to be more resistant than hitherto believed. Dupont et al. (in press) indicate the importance of evaluating the most vulnerable stages in the life cycle of organisms instead of only adult stages. Here we evaluate additional material, composed of experimental evidence of the effect of ocean acidification on marine organisms during adult, larval, and juvenile stages, and show that the observed effects are within the range predicted by Hendriks et al. (2010). Species-specific differences and a wide variance in the reaction of organisms might obscure patterns of differences between life stages. Future research should be aimed to clarify underlying mechanisms to define the effect ocean acidification will have on marine biodiversity. Conveying scientific evidence along with an open acknowledgment of uncertainties to help separate evidence from judgment should not harm the need to act to mitigate ocean acidification and should pave the road for robust progress in our understanding of how ocean acidification impacts biota of the ocean.     

凡纳滨对虾C-型凝集素LvLec2 对不同刺激的免疫应答

克隆获得了与中国明对虾(Fenneropenaeus chinensis)C-type lectin 3同源的C-型凝集素LvLec2基因序列,并通过Real-time PCR研究了其在脂多糖(lipopolysaccharide,简称LPS)、灭活溶壁微球菌(Micrococcus lysodeikticus)和白斑综合症病毒(white spot syndrome virus,简称WSSV)刺激后的转录表达变化。结果表明,LvLec2编码157个氨基酸,含有1个糖识别结构域(carbohydrate recognition domain,简称CRD),其CRD结构域中具有决定糖结合特异性的基序"EPS"(Glu118-Pro119-Ser120)序列。系统进化树分析表明LvLec2与已发表的凡纳滨对虾(Litopenaeus vannamei)C-型凝集素亲缘较远。LPS、灭活溶壁微球菌和WSSV刺激后,LvLec2基因在肝胰脏中的转录表达有明显的变化但表达模式不同。LvLec2可能作为模式识别受体参与了对虾对病原的识别或防御。     

平湖油气田低渗透储层测井评价研究

平湖油气田P11储层开发是平湖油气田增储提产的重要目标,也是当前平湖油气田开发面临的难题之一。由于埋藏深,储层物性条件差,试油自然产能低下,储层流体性质复杂,气油比低,凝析油含量高,密度大,储层温度高,压力系数高,给测井解释和评价带来很大困难,对开发方案的实施提出了挑战。根据岩心分析资料,从成岩作用、沉积作用等方面对平湖组放鹤亭P11储层低渗原因进行了分析;对P11储层的测井响应特征进行了总结,对P11储层＂四性＂关系、孔隙度结构进行剖析,对储层孔隙度、渗透率、饱和度等参数进行了研究,得到一套适合P11储层测井解释评价的方法,为P11储层的开发提供参数依据和测井解释服务。     

青岛市经济增长引发环境污染的冲击响应模式分析

经济的不断发展造成了极大的环境污染,需要人们用科学的手段对经济发展和造成的环境污染之间的关系进行客观判断。采用主成分分析法、格兰杰因果检验以及基于VAR的脉冲响应函数对青岛市的经济发展与环境污染二者间关系进行分析,结果发现由于环境承载力的存在,经济增长造成环境污染在很大程度上受到时滞的影响,经济增长引发环境问题是渐进的、长期的,所以在发展经济时不能只顾眼前利益而忽视对环境的长期影响,要注重可持续发展。     

全过程联合校正方法在饶河流域洪水预报中的应用研究

为提高饶河流域洪水预报精度,将全过程联合校正(EPJC)方法与三水源新安江(XAJ)模型结合,按一定比例划分洪水预报总误差为各过程误差,基于系统响应理论反演得到面雨量计算误差和模型参数误差,重新输入流域水文模型正演得出校正后的洪水过程.选取洪峰流量相对误差、峰现时间绝对误差、径流深相对误差和确定性系数作为模型评价指标,...     

中国春季气温异常变率的非线性特征

运用一种基于神经网络的非线性主成分分析法(NLPCA)对中国1951-2003年53 a春季气温距平场进行分析,结果表明,春季气温异常变率具有显著的非线性特征,当非线性主元u分别取最大值和最小值时,对应的空间气温异常分布型具有显著的非对称性.     

隧道地震响应数值模拟研究

在进行隧道地震响应的数值模拟研究时, 横向计算范围和人工边界等对计算结果有很大的影响。本文以黄草坪隧道为研究对象, 应用有限差分程序FLAC3D对其进行地震响应的数值模拟研究, 将横向计算范围分别取为隧道洞径的5倍、6倍、7倍、8倍、9倍和10倍, 并分别采用FLAC3D中的截断边界、自由场地边界和粘性边界进行计算。研究结果表明, 当地震波为P波时, 横向计算范围取为洞径的7至8倍, 人工边界采用自由场地边界或粘性边界是比较合理的。