以SRTM-DEM为控制的光学卫星遥感立体影像正射纠正

针对全球测图缺少统一的控制基准的问题,提出了利用SRTM-DEM作为控制基准,对光学卫星遥感影像进行正射纠正的方法。首先,对光学卫星影像构建的立体影像对进行自由网平差并制作DEM;然后,以SRTM-DEM作为控制,将DEM作为单元模型,进行独立模型法DEM区域网平差,获得单元模型的定向参数;最后,改正立体影像的成像几何模型参数,进行正射纠正。选取湖北咸宁和江西某地两个测区的资源三号数据进行试验,试验结果表明,资源三号正视全色影像的平面定向精度由12.93像素提高到6.85像素。     

Variability of levee failure mechanisms subject to heavy rainfalls,case studies in Taiwan

In this study, the failure mechanisms for Chiuliao 1st Levee and Gueishan Levee in Taiwan were re-examined comprehensively considering the uncertainty of different parameters. Results have shown that for Chiuliao 1st Levee, the slope sliding failure has a higher coefficient of variation (COV). For Gueishan Levee, retaining wall sliding and overturning failure have higher values of COV instead. It can also be found that the scouring depths affect the stability of the levee significantly, therefore, a protecting system for the backfill material may be necessary to increase the stability of the levee effectively.     

Effect of 2D spatial variability on slope reliability: A simplified FORM analysis

To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability.     

Structural stability of gravity dams: a progressive assessment considering uncertainties in shear strength parameters

Structural sliding stability of gravity dams is generally quantified using deterministic factor of safety, FS_det. Large FS_det (e.g. 3 in normal condition), are used in existing guidelines to guard against material and load uncertainties. Some guidelines allow an arbitrary reduction in FS_det (e.g. 2) when the knowledge in strength parameters increases from material test data. Yet, those reduced FS_det are not based on a rational consideration of uncertainties. Propagation of uncertainties could be done using probabilistic analyses, such as Monte-Carlo simulations (MC) which are complex and challenging for practical use. There is thus a need to develop simplified reliability based safety assessment procedures that could rationalise the adjustment of FS_det. This paper presents a progressive analysis methodology using four safety evaluation formats of increasing complexity: (i) deterministic, (ii) semi-probabilistic (partial coefficient), (iii) reliability based Adjustable Factor of Safety (AFS), and (iv) probabilistic. Comprehensive comparisons are made for the sliding safety evaluation of a 80 m gravity dam. Results are presented in terms of sliding factors of safety, allowable water levels, and demand/capacity ratios. It is shown that the AFS formulation, using direct integration, is simple and practical to use in complement to existing dam safety guidelines before undertaking MC simulations.     

Landfill site selection based on reliability concepts using the DRASTIC method and AHP integrated with GIS – a case study of Bengaluru city,India

The selection of landfill sites for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal involves consideration of geological, hydrological and environmental parameters which exhibit large spatial variability. Therefore, it is necessary to define, to what extent the chosen sites are reliable such that the probability of environmental pollution and health risks to population is minimal. In the present study, groundwater vulnerability to contamination has been assessed using the standard DRASTIC method. The results showed that the study region has 9.45% of very less, 32.94% of less, 25.47% of moderate, 22.79% of high and 9.35% of very high vulnerable zones. The study also revealed that none of the landfills are located in safe zones. This suggests that it requires proper remedial measures to avoid environmental pollution. A landfill site selection process has been carried out using the Analytical Hierarchy Process integrated with Geographical Information System tools. The obtained results showed that only 3.59?km² (0.08%) of the total area is suitable for landfills. The reliability analysis of the site suitability revealed that landfills are located at unreliable locations where the probability of risk to environmental pollution is high. The presented approach assists decision-makers in selecting reliable locations for the safe disposal of MSW.     

Minimal cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm for seismic reliability evaluation of lifeline networks

In this paper, a new probabilistic analytical approach, the minimal cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm (MCRDA), is presented to evaluate the seismic reliability of large-scale lifeline systems. Based on the minimal cut searching algorithm, the approach calculates the disjoint minimal cuts one by one using the basic procedure of the recursive decomposition method. At the same time, the process obtains the disjoint minimal paths of the system. In order to improve the computation efficiency, probabilistic inequality is used to calculate a solution that satisfies the prescribed error bound. A series of case studies show that MCRDA converges rapidly when the edges of the systems have low reliabilities. Therefore, the approach can be used to evaluate large-scale lifeline systems subjected to strong seismic wave excitation.     

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

中国城际公路零担专线网络空间结构特征

基于社会网络分析方法,利用国家交通运输物流公共信息平台2018年全国地级及以上城市的公路零担专线数据,从城市节点、城际联系、子网络3个层面对中国城市网络结构特征进行识别,结果表明：1）上海、天津、郑州、广州、杭州在网络中处于主导性地位,根据货流组织系数,可将城市节点划分为强中心、次强中心、弱中心、从属型4种类型。2）在首位联系总量排名前十的城市中,输出型城市和输入型城市的比例为4∶1,反映货流流向的不均衡性。由公路零担专线数据刻画的网络空间呈现显著的距离衰减规律,集中在500 km的专线数量占比为41.9%。3）公路零担专线网络形成东北―冀鲁蒙社区、中原社区、关中社区、江淮社区、泛珠三角―长三角社区、长株潭社区6个具有显著地域特征的城市社区,社区结构表现出明显的空间集聚和跨行政区特征。最后,提出以下建议：增强成渝城市群公路零担专线服务能力,发挥核心城市产业集聚和带动作用;优化边缘城市产业结构,加强交通与产业融合;积极引导无车承运人平台发挥网络规模化效应,提高公路货运组织效率。     

Formation and stability of mixed Mg/Ca/phytate species in synthetic seawater media: Consequences on ligand speciation

The results of a potentiometric investigation (by ISE-H⁺, glass electrode) on the speciation of phytate ion (Phy¹²⁻) in an ionic medium simulating the major components (Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl⁻ and SO₄²⁻) of natural seawater, at different salinities and t = 25 °C, are reported. The work was particularly aimed at determining the possible formation of mixed Ca²⁺–Mg²⁺–phytate ion pairs, and to establish how including the formation of these mixed species would affect the speciation modeling in seawater media. After testing various speciation models, that considering the formation of the MgCaH₃Phy⁵⁻, MgCaH₄Phy⁴⁻, Mg₂CaH₃Phy³⁻ and Mg₂CaH₄Phy²⁻ species was accepted, and corresponding stability constants were determined at two salinities (S = 5, 10). A discussion is reported both on the choice of the experimental conditions and on the possibility to extend these results to those typical of real seawater. A detailed procedure is also described to demonstrate that the stability of these species is higher than that statistically predicted. As reported in literature, a parameter, namely log X, has been determined in order to quantify this extra stability for the formation of each mixed species at various salinities. For example, at S = 10, log X₁₁₃ = 2.67 and log X₁₁₄ = 1.37 for MgCaH₃Phy⁵⁻ and MgCaH₄Phy⁴⁻ (statistical value is log X_stat = 0.60), and log X₂₁₃ = 6.11 and log X₂₁₄ = 2.15 for Mg₂CaH₃Phy³⁻ and Mg₂CaH₄Phy²⁻ (log X_stat = 1.43), respectively. Results obtained also showed that the formation of these species may occur even in conditions of low salinity (i.e. low concentration of alkaline earth cations) and low pH (i.e., more protonated ligand).     

Reliability of mooring lines and piles for a permanently manned vessel in a tropical cyclone environment

The factors of safety for stationkeeping systems in current standards (ISO, API) are not derived or validated using reliability analyses. As the oil and gas exploration and production is breaking new boundaries, deploying new floating systems and moving into regions with harsher environments, it is of paramount importance to understand what level of reliability these new marine structures are achieving. This paper presents a reliability analysis of the mooring system of a Floating LNG (FLNG) vessel permanently moored and permanently manned offshore North West Australia in a tropical cyclone environment. The reliability analysis addresses both the mooring chain and the pile foundation. The analysis accounts for the long term characteristics of the environment, including the short term variability, in response to a given sea state and the variability and uncertainty in strength of the mooring chain and the pile. The stationkeeping system was analysed using detailed time domain simulations, capturing system non-linearities and low frequency oscillations as well as wave frequency responses and, thereby, reducing modelling uncertainties to a minimum.It is found that for the conditions modelled, neither the chain nor the pile meet a target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum using the factors of safety commonly used in design following current ISO and API standards. New factors of safety are proposed to achieve this target reliability. For the pile design, one complicating factor is that current design standards do not explicitly define the exceedance probability that should be associated with the characteristic value of the undrained shear strength to be used in the design. It is demonstrated that the required factor of safety is crucially dependent on the definition of this characteristic value and on the level and the type of uncertainty in the soil strength profile. A recommendation is made regarding the definition of this characteristic value and the associated factor of safety. Furthermore, it is found that designing the mooring system to an environmental condition with a return period of 10,000 yr (as an Abnormal Limit State event), and setting the factor of safety to unity, meets the target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum for the pile, if the characteristic undrained shear strength is a lower bound, defined in this paper by the 10th percentile value. For the chain however, this target reliability is not achieved.