Reliability analysis of soil nail internal limit states using default FHWA load and resistance models

Abstract

Reliability analyses of nail pullout, nail-in-tension, and system reliability of internal limit states are presented for both permanent and temporary soil nails that are designed using default Federal Highway Administration nail load and resistance models within traditional deterministic allowable stress design (ASD) framework. The model uncertainty, correlations between soil strength parameters, between model factor, and nominal load term, and between the two internal limit states, and influence of model factor fittings are all addressed in the analyses. This study provides a general idea of the reliability that is implicitly embedded in current ASD-based soil nail internal limit state designs.     

土体微观结构对冻胀影响的灰色关联及粗糙集评价

以季冻区粉土为研究对象,进行不同条件下室内冻胀试验,测得冻胀指标--冻胀率;同时运用扫描电子显微镜WD-5图像处理系统提取并定量化冻胀前土样微观结构参数（包括孔隙参数和结构单元体参数）。由于结构对冻胀影响具有非线性、复杂性、模糊性等特点,选择灰色关联法及粗糙集２种非线性评价方法,评价各结构参数对冻胀率的影响程度。评价结果表明：与冻胀率关联度较高的孔隙参数为形态分布分维数、平均丰度、平均圆形度和平均各向异性率,单元体参数为平均各向异性率、形态分布分维数和定向概率熵。粗糙集约简结果中,对冻胀影响较明显的孔隙参数为平均各向异性率、平均丰度、定向分维数和形态分布分维数,单元体参数为形态分布分维、平均各向异性率、平均形状系数。比较2种评价方法所得结果,分析其中的异同。最后综合考虑２种评价结果,确定8个对冻胀意义较明显的结构参数：孔隙的形态分布分维、平均丰度、平均各向异性率、定向分维数;单元体的平均各向异性率、形态分布分维、平均形状系数和定向概率熵。     

甘肃黄土高边坡可靠度研究

以甘肃省266个黄土自然极限状态坡为研究对象,将其按地形地貌、地层岩性等特征划分为4个亚区,对每个亚区的极限状态坡高与坡宽进行双对数线性模型回归和不同置信度下的统计分析,给出4个亚区不同置信度下坡高与坡宽的相关关系。以1 024组黄土物理力学指标统计结果作为计算参数,用Bishop法的稳定系数计算公式建立极限状态方程,利用 Monte Carlo法对各亚区不同置信度下的边坡进行可靠度模拟,系统分析了坡高、坡度、参数变异性对失效概率的影响,以及失效概率与稳定系数的关系。结果表明,临洮-永靖亚区边坡坡度低于31.5?,失效概率可控制在10%以下;陇东亚区、兰州-定西-会宁亚区和天水-秦安-通渭亚区在强度参数变异系数取当地平均水平,稳定系数为1.3情况下失效概率在10%以内,稳定系数为1.2情况下,失效概率多在20%以内。     

边坡可靠度分析的非侵入式随机有限元法

提出基于非侵入式随机有限元法的边坡可靠度分析方法,并编写计算程序NISFEM。采用有限元滑面应力法计算边坡安全系数,将Hermite随机多项式展开与SIGMA/W和SLOPE/W模块有机结合实现边坡可靠度非侵入式随机分析。根据随机多项式展开系数,给出边坡安全系数前4阶统计矩（均值、标准差、偏度和峰度）和Sobol指标解析表达式,并采用Sobol指标进行边坡可靠度参数敏感性分析。最后,以均质土坡可靠度问题为例,证明该方法在边坡可靠度分析中的有效性。结果表明,边坡可靠度分析的非侵入式随机有限元法能够有效地考虑边坡变形对边坡可靠度的影响,计算效率远远高于蒙特卡罗模拟方法（MCS）,是解决复杂边坡可靠度问题一种有效地分析手段;黏聚力和内摩擦角变异性对边坡安全系数前四阶统计矩具有明显的影响,重度变异性对安全系数前4阶统计矩几乎没有影响;抗剪强度参数间负相关性对边坡安全系数均值几乎没有影响,但对安全系数标准差、偏度和峰度均有明显的影响。此外,随着抗剪强度参数间负相关性的增加,边坡安全系数由近似正态分布逐渐变为明显的非正态分布。     

一种装配式新型张力计的研制

土体干湿过程引发的岩土工程问题已逐渐受到重视。通常采用张力计量测80 kPa以内的土体吸力,并将其应用于边坡失稳等岩土工程问题的分析中。然而,传统张力计由于内部腔体体积过大且结构复杂,造成张力计难以饱和,吸力量测时反应时间长,并易发生汽化,严重影响其可靠性和灵敏性。为弥补传统张力计的设计缺陷,提出了一种装配式新型张力计。该张力计内腔结构简单且体积小。饱和前先拆分张力计再分别饱和其主要部件,最后重新装配。此设计简化了饱和程序并提高了效率。通过对比传统张力计和新型张力计的性能,证实了新型张力计具有更强的汽化持久性,其吸力量测的灵敏性和可靠性得到了显著的提高。标定试验表明,相比于传统张力计,新型张力计的灵敏性提高了90%。测量-80 kPa的孔隙水压力时,新型张力计的平衡时间为1.5 min,仅占传统张力计反应时间的10%。相同的测量条件下,传统张力计的测量误差为30%,而新型张力计的测量误差仅为0.7%。     

基于有限元强度折减法的抗滑桩滑坡推力及抗滑桩内力可靠性分析

现行的抗滑桩滑坡推力以及抗滑桩内力计算方法本质上属于定值方法,由于该方法未考虑边坡岩土体材料参数的变异性等不确定性因素,存在着抗滑桩支护不足或过度支护等问题,因此提出基于有限元强度折减法(SRFEM)的抗滑桩滑坡推力及抗滑桩内力可靠性分析方法。将极限分析法、有限元方法和可靠性分析法三者耦合,用2结点梁单元模拟抗滑桩受力状态,采用拉丁超立方抽样法(LHS)进行可靠度计算,分析求解边坡抗滑桩可靠性问题,并将该过程在数值计算程序中得以实现。对抗滑桩滑坡推力以及抗滑桩内力进行概率统计,得出函数分布关系,并根据已给定的失效概率控制值,反算出滑坡推力以及抗滑桩内力设计值。结合典型算例分析结果表明该法显著区别于一般方法,能较全面地反映出边坡整体现状特征和岩土体材料强度参数的变异性,相对更加合理,且更符合工程实际。     

Efficient risk assessment of lifeline networks under spatially correlated ground motions using selective recursive decomposition algorithm

For effective hazard mitigation planning and prompt-but-prudent post-disaster responses, it is essential to evaluate the reliability of infrastructure networks accurately and efficiently. A nonsimulation-based algorithm, termed as a recursive decomposition algorithm (RDA), was recently proposed to identify disjoint cut sets and link sets and to compute the network reliability. This paper introduces a ‘selective’ RDA, which preferentially identifies critical disjoint cut sets and link sets to calculate the probabilities of network disconnection events with a significantly reduced number of identified sets. To this end, the original RDA is improved by replacing the shortest path algorithm with an algorithm that identifies the most reliable path, and by using a graph decomposition scheme based on the probabilities associated with the subgraphs. The critical sets identified by the algorithm are also used to compute conditional probability-based importance measures that quantify the relative importance of network components by their contributions to network disconnection events. This paper also introduces a risk assessment framework for lifeline networks based on the use of the selective RDA, which can consider both interevent and intraevent uncertainties of spatially correlated ground motions. The risk assessment framework and the selective RDA are demonstrated by a hypothetical network example, and the gas and water transmission networks of Shelby County in Tennessee, USA. The examples show that the proposed framework and the selective RDA greatly improve efficiency of risk assessment of complex lifeline networks, which are characterized by a large number of components, complex network topology, and statistical dependence between component failures. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于区间方法的岩质边坡稳定性非概率可靠性分析

在综合分析岩土参数区间性的基础上,通过引入区间分析方法和非概率可靠性思想,建立岩质边坡稳定的非概率可靠性模型,并针对区间运算结果扩张问题,引入区间截断法和区间优化法,对边坡非概率可靠性指标进行较为精确的求解。然后,以湖北某岩质高边坡为实例,进一步探讨了岩体参数变异性对岩质边坡稳定的非概率可靠性指标的影响规律。     

Towards multiple hazard resilient bridges: a methodology for modeling frequent and infrequent time-varying loads Part I, Comprehensive reliability and partial failure probabilities

The current AASHTO load and resistance factor design (LRFD) guidelines are formulated based on bridge reliability,which interprets traditional design safety factors into more rigorously deduced factors based on the theory of probability.This is a major advancement in bridge design specifications.However,LRFD is only calibrated for dead and live loads.In cases when extreme loads are significant,they need to be individually assessed.Combining regular loads with extreme loads has been a major challenge,mainly because the extreme loads are time variables and cannot be directly combined with time invariant loads to formulate the probability of structural failure.To overcome these difficulties,this paper suggests a methodology of comprehensive reliability,by introducing the concept of partial failure probability to separate the loads so that each individual load combination under a certain condition can be approximated as time invariant.Based on these conditions,the extreme loads (also referred to as multiple hazard or MH loads) can be broken down into single effects.In Part Ⅱ of this paper,a further breakdown of these conditional occurrence probabilities into pure conditions is discussed by using a live truck and earthquake loads on a bridge as an example.There are three major steps in establishing load factors from MH load distributions:(1) formulate the failure probabilities;(2) normalize various load distributions;and (3) establish design limit state equations.This paper describes the formulation of the failure probabilities of single and combined loads.     

深水半潜式平台锚链倾角监测的自容式传感器的设计

深水半潜式平台系泊锚链的倾角变化是评价平台系泊状态与锚链受力的重要指标,是半潜式平台重要的监测内容。目前,深水锚链的测量主要是采用自容式的传感器,针对其水下长时间测量的应用特点,要求它的设计必须具有低功耗、高可靠性、大存储量、体积小、防水耐压等指标。根据我国南海流花平台的锚链监测需要,设计与制作了专用的水下自容式倾角传感器,并在实际应用中进行了检验。