西北地区五城市大型水源地地下水流模型若干问题研究

西北地区五城市系指西安市、兰州市、乌鲁木齐市、西宁市与银川市。五城市在“七五”期间分别建立了大型水源地的地下水管理模型，而地下水流模型的建立则是制作地下水管理模型的基础。一个好的地下水流模型对概化的水文地质模型必须有高度的仿真性，通过拟合求参必须有足够的保真性，对于预测必须有可靠性。     

土层随机地震反应的动力可靠度计算

研究了土层的随机地震反应分析方法 ,建立了基岩输入地震动加速度功率谱函数为白噪声和过滤白噪声时土层的动力可靠度计算理论     

星载铷原子频率标准的可靠性研究

星载原子频率标准在许多空间系统中担当着重要的角色,其性能和可靠性对这些系统的功能有重要的影响。介绍了广泛使用的星载铷原子频率标准的基本工作原理,分析了影响其可靠性的各种因素,并探讨了提高其可靠性的基本途径。     

The radial structure of hot one-temperature accretion flows with advection

Considering nonthermal e^±-pair production, this paper is focused on the radial structure of hot one-temperature accretion flows with advection under the condition of small viscous parameter ( = 0.1) and low mass-accretion rates. Self-similar relations of hot flow with advection have been adopted. The authors have used a scheme, in which the two regions of accretion flow are calculated separately and then joined together. Some typical features of hot flow with advection have been confirmed, and several new results obtained: there exists a critical radius r_cr; the local cooling rate is inversely proportional to the square of the mass of the central object; the e^±-pair process affects significantly the radiation of hot flows with advection.     

A reliability‐based selective index for regional flood frequency analysis methods

In this paper, a new index is proposed for the selection of the best regional frequency analysis method. First, based on the theory of reliability, the new selective index is developed. The variances of three regional T‐year event estimators are then derived. The proposed methodology is applied to an actual watershed. For each regional method, the reliability of various T‐year regional estimates is computed. Finally, the reliability‐based selective index graph is constructed from which the best regional method can be determined. In addition, the selection result is compared with that based on the traditional index, root mean square error. The proposed new index is recommended as an alternative to the existing indices such as root mean square error, because the influence of uncertainty and the accuracy of estimates are considered. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic seismic response and reliability assessment of isolated bridges

Bridge seismic isolation strategy is based on the reduction of shear forces transmitted from the superstructure to the piers by two means: shifting natural period and earthquake input energy reduction by dissipation concentrated in protection devices. In this paper, a stochastic analysis of a simple isolated bridge model for different bridge and device parameters is conducted to assess the efficiency of this seismic protection strategy. To achieve this aim, a simple nonlinear softening constitutive law is adopted to model a wide range of isolation devices, characterized by only three essential mechanical parameters. As a consequence of the random nature of seismic motion, a probabilistic analysis is carried out and the time modulated Kanai-Tajimi stochastic process is adopted to represent the seismic action. The response covariance in the state space is obtained by solving the Lyapunov equation for a stochastic linearized system. After a sensitivity analysis, the failure probability referred to extreme displacement and the mean value of dissipated energy are assessed by using the introduced stochastic indices of seismic bridge protection efficiency. A parametric analysis for protective devices with different mechanical parameters is developed for a proper selection of parameters of isolation devices under different situations.     

Reliability checking for GNSS baseline and network processing

Reliability analysis is inseparably connected with the formulation of failure scenarios, and common test statistics are based on specific assumptions. This is easily overlooked when processing observation differences. Poor failure identification performance and misleading pre-analysis results, mainly meaningless minimum detectable biases and external reliability measures, are the consequence. A reasonable failure scenario for use with differenced GNSS observations is formulated which takes into account that individual outliers in the original data affect more than one processed observation. The proper test statistics and reliability indicators are given for use with correlated observations and both batch processing and Kalman filtering. It is also shown that standardized residuals and redundancy numbers fail completely when used with double differenced observations.

基于模糊故障树的GIS产品的可靠性分析

本文首次把模糊故障树方法引入到GIS产品的可靠性分析,并就模糊故障树的基本理论作了简单的介绍,阐述了模糊故障树的建造和基于三角模糊数和梯形模糊数运算规则,结合GIS产品的特性论述了模糊故障树用于GIS产品可靠性分析的步骤,然后用实例进行了分析,最后就全文进行总结并指出了需要解决的问题。     

精密单点定位解算结果可靠性评估方法研究

针对精密单点定位解算结果质量评估方法的单一性,提出了对精密单点定位解算结果进行可靠性评估并总结了三种可靠性评估方法,利用实测数据根据三种评估方法分别从静态和动态定位两方面对精密单点定位解算结果的可靠性进行了评估,验证了其解算结果的可靠性,并提出了提高精密单点定位解算结果可靠性的措施。     

可靠性空间分析初探

从工程和生命科学的可靠性概念出发,结合地理信息科学的自身特点,强调空间数据及分析的全过程质量和分析结果的决策可用性。首次给出了可靠性空间分析的概念,分析了可靠性空间分析的特点、面临的主要问题和研究方法,探讨了可靠性空间分析的主要理论、研究方向和应用领域,促进了空间分析从不确定性研究向可靠性空间分析方向的发展。