2.5维各向异性介质中地震波场数值模拟

这里实现了在2.5维各向异性介质中地震波传播的数值模拟。首先从2.5维一阶速度-应力弹性各向异性波动方程出发,得出了该方程的拟谱法数值解法;然后通过对Marmousi速度模型进行数值模拟,表明了拟谱法的有效性;最后计算并分析了均匀和混合各向异性介质中波的传播快照和理论模拟的地震记录,进一步认识了波在各向异性介质中的传播规律。     

自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)在水文模型综合中的应用

由于目前已有很多比较成熟的流域水文模型,因此我们可以选用几个流域水文模型进行并行运算,来同时模拟流域降雨—径流关系。在相同的降雨输入情况下,不同模型得到的模拟流量必然会有所不同,模型效率系数和模拟精度也会不同。因此,如何将不同模型的模拟结果进行综合以进一步提高流量模拟精度是一个关键问题。本文选用自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)作为水文模型综合平台,以牧马河流域为试验区域,对两个并行运算水文模型(三水源新安江模型和总径流响应模型)的结果进行综合处理,得到了更稳健的流量模拟结果,大大提高了模型效率和模拟精度。该方法值得在实践中借鉴。     

建筑基坑土钉支护时机探讨

本文采用FLAC软件，通过建筑物基坑随开挖深度增加而变形的模拟，得出基坑每一阶段开挖及土钉支护条件下的位移发展演变规律，跟踪最大不平衡力变量的变化提出了最佳土钉支护时机。     

四种湍流模型对空化流动模拟的比较

采用四种湍流模型对NACA66水翼空化流动进行模拟,分析了不同湍流模型和壁面函数对空化流动模拟结果的影响.分析结果表明:ASM模型和RNG k-ε模型对空化数不敏感,且计算精度较高;Realizable k-ε模型对空化数的变化很敏感,对不同的空化数计算精度相差很大;标准k-ε模型对空化数不敏感,但精度不高.增强壁面函数法对空化数不敏感,计算精度较高;标准壁面函数法和非平衡壁面函数法对空化数有一定的敏感性,但计算结果差异不大.     

斜坡上异重流的三维数值模拟

针对异重流的流动特征,建立了适用于具有各向异性浮力紊动特征的三维异重流运动的数学模型,并模拟了异重流在15°斜坡底面上的潜行过程。计算结果准确地模拟了异重流的运动特征和形态,其前锋的潜行速度与实验结果相当吻合。该模型采用非结构同位网格上的SIMPLEC算法能适应复杂边界和地形,可应用于自然界实际环境中异重流的演进计算。     

无中导洞施工双连拱隧道的数值模拟分析

针对双连拱隧道采用三导洞或中导洞超前施工方法施工工序多、临时支护量大的不足,以黄延高速公路羊泉沟隧道为例,提出在Ⅲ类围岩中采用无中导洞超前施工方法.基于弹塑性有限元方法对其施工过程进行分析,获得了施工各阶段围岩的应力、应变状态,以及初期支护和二次衬砌的受力状态.结果表明：在Ⅲ类围岩中连拱隧道采用无中导洞施工方法,围岩和支护结构处于安全状态.分析结果为羊泉沟隧道的顺利贯通提供了有效指导.     

地形降水试验和背风回流降水机制

利用中尺度数值模式（ARPS模式）研究了湿气流过山脉地形和地形降水的产生机制。研究结果表明，地形降水是水汽、气流和地形相互作用而形成的。小山脉地形降水主要发生在山脉的迎风坡，表现出典型的迎风降水和背风雨影特征。而回流降水天气是湿气流过大的山脉地形的产物，大的山脉地形有利于风切变临界层的产生，地形降水并不只是简单的上坡降水，还有背风回流和背风波降水机制。     

“96·8”华北暴雨数值模拟与稳定性分析

分析1996年8月发生在华北地区的台风暴雨过程的环流形势，发现：副热带高压与台风低压之间的气压梯度很大，宽广的偏南急流源源不断地向北输送水汽和能量，而太行山一带正处于汇合区，构成十分有利的暴雨天气形势。应用MM5数值预报方法对1996年8月4—5日的降雨天气过程进行数值模拟，并依据天气学原理和位涡理论对此过程的稳定性进行分析认为：（1）MM5数值预报模式较好地模拟出了台风暴雨的物理过程。（2）此次降雨的不稳定层结有南高北低现象，同时有对称不稳定和对流不稳定存在；条件性对称不稳定可使环流加速，对降水有一定的增幅作用。     

河北省冬麦区土壤水分监测预测系统及其应用

河北省冬小麦生育阶段正值少雨时期,一般年份只有在灌溉的情况下才能满足小麦生长发育的需求,麦区土壤水分实时监测预测对于灌溉决策十分重要。在冬小麦单站多层次土壤水分动态模型(VSMB模型)的基础上,根据河北省麦区从南到北冬小麦发育期和土壤类型的不同进行参数调整和修正,并对数据库进行设计,形成河北省整个冬麦区麦田土壤水分监测预测系统(RSM-MFS)。文中介绍了该系统的基本原理和功能,并对实际应用进行了效果分析。从近年在河北省冬麦区土壤水分的监测预测结果来看,监测相对误差在10%左右,风险预测相对误差在20%左右。     

Multi-Year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model （RegCM_NCC） Part Ⅱ： The Experimental Seasonal Prediction

A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center (NCC) since 2001. The NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM (CGCM) provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model (RegCM NCC). The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme (TKE) and an improved land process model (LPM). The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part I. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model’s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast (1991–2000) for summer (June–August), the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvement is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations.