A case study of the improvement of soil moisture initialization in IAP-PSSCA

A prediction system is employed to investigate the potential use of a soil moisture initialization scheme in seasonal precipitation prediction through a case study of severe floods in 1998. The results show that driving the model with reasonable initial soil moisture distribution is helpful for precipitation prediction,and the initialization scheme is easy to use in operational prediction.     

A relationship between solar activity and frequency of natural disasters in China

The relationship between the length of the solar cycle, a good indicator of long-term change in solar activity, and natural disasters (drought, flood, and strong earthquakes) in China during the last 108 years is analyzed. The results suggest that the length of solar cycle may be a useful indicator for drought/flood and strong earthquakes. When the solar activity strengthens, we see the length of the solar cycle shorten and more floods occur in South China and frequent strong earthquakes happen in the Tibetan Plateau,but the droughts in East China as well as the strong earthquakes in Taiwan and at the western boundary of China are very few. The opposite frequencies occur when the solar activity weakens. The current study indicates that the solar activity may play an important role in the climate extremes and behavior in the lithosphere.     

On the Integrability of Limited-Area Numerical Weather Prediction Model ALADIN over Extended Time Periods

This note summarizes results of the first integration of regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN in a climate mode. The ALADIN model, developed in an international cooperation led by Météo France, is operationally used for weather prediction. The grid step of the model is 12 km; the integration domain covers a major part of Europe. A one-month-long run has been performed with this model on observed boundary conditions (represented by assimilations by the global model ARPEGE). It is demonstrated that no excessive error is generated and accumulated in the model during the integration; hence the model is integrable for extended time periods and may serve a basis for a development towards a regional climate model.     

海洋沉积物动力学的示踪物方法

本文的论题是示踪物方法在海洋物源追踪和沉积物输运率计算中的应用 ,以及示踪物方法的普适性理论框架。定量的物源追踪需要适当的示踪标记和物质混合模型 ,有必要根据沉积动力过程的研究来确定示踪标记的变换函数 ,从而将改进的示踪标记用于混合模型分析。人工示踪物实验的现有方法以空间积分法最为常用 ,其关键是示踪物质心运动和沉积物活动层的界定。天然示踪物的质心位置是无法定义的 ,因此不能借用传统人工示踪物方法来估算物质输运率 ;在某些特殊情形下 ,可以利用天然示踪物的质量守衡原理来获得物质输运信息。今后 ,以示踪物质的连续方程为基础 ,有可能建立一种同时适用于人工和天然示踪物的普适理论框架。其中需解决的问题包括示踪物与现场物质的差异、沉积速率和活动层厚度的时间尺度、沉积物扩散过程等。     

重庆市自然灾害管理综合信息系统研究

从重庆市自然灾害情况及其信息管理现状分析入手,构建了重庆市自然灾害管理信息系统目标、整体设计和界面开发。重庆市自然灾害管理信息系统主要由4个模块组成：自然灾害数据库模块、远程通信管理模块、应用分析模型库模块及决策支持模块,它们通过一定的数据接口连结,在GIS平台上成为一体化系统,对重庆市自然灾害进行有效地管理和监测,从而减少自然灾害带来的经济损失。     

New M-Type Variables in Galactic Dark Clouds

The results of the spectral classification of newly discovered M-type variables obtained as part of an H-alpha survey of Galactic dark cloud regions are presented. The survey was carried out with the 40 Schmidt camera of Byurakan Observatory, and the spectra of the variable stars for the classification were obtained with the Observatory's 2.6-m telescope. The observational material allowed register of late M-type variables as well as their brightness variations. Among the 97 newly discovered M-type stars, 22 show brightness variations. The results of the spectral classification of these new variables show that 21 out of 22 are red giants, and in all probability they are Mira Ceti type long period variables.     

泥河湾保护区地貌特征与地质灾害

根据泥河湾保护区实地调查,黄土台地、黄土沟梁和河谷地貌是发育在“泥河湾层”及其覆地层上的主要地貌类型,其形态特征和形态测量反映了该区流水地貌的现代演化特征。伴随流水地质作用与地貌演化发生的水土流失、泥石流、崩塌和地面塌陷等地质灾害危及保护区的地层剖面。笔者认为该区域地质灾害是多种致灾因素造成的,其中的主导因素是气候、植被和人为因素,通过控制植被因素可以改变目前的地质环境状况。     

Comparing palaeolimnological and instrumental evidence of climate change for remote mountain lakes over the last 200 years

This paper compares the palaeolimnological evidence for climate change over the last 200 years with instrumental climate data for the same period at seven European remote mountain lakes. The sites are Øvre Neådalsvatn (Norway), Saanajärvi (Finland), Gossenköllesee (Austria), Hagelseewli (Switzerland), Jezero v Ledvici (Slovenia), Estany Redó (Spain, Pyrenees), and Niné Terianske Pleso (Slovakia). We used multiple regression analysis to transfer homogenised lowland air temperature records to each of the sites, and these reconstructions were validated using data from on-site automatic weather stations. These data showed that mean annual temperature has varied over the last 200 years at each site by between 1 and 2 °C, typical of the high frequency variability found throughout the Holocene, and appropriate, therefore, to test the sensitivity of the various proxy methods used. Sediment cores from each site were radiometrically dated using ²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs and ²⁴¹Am and analysed for loss-on-ignition, C, N, S, pigments, diatoms, chrysophytes, Cladocera and chironomids. Comparisons between the proxy data and the instrumental data were based on linear regression analysis with the proxy data treated as response variables and the instrumental data (after smoothing using LOESS regressions) as predictor variables. The results showed few clear or consistent patterns with generally low or very low r² values. Highest values were found when the data were compared after smoothing using a broad span, indicating that some of the proxy data were capturing climate variability but only at a relatively coarse time resolution. Probable reasons for the weak performance of the methods used include inaccurate dating, especially for earlier time periods, the influence of confounding forcing factors at some sites e.g., air pollution, earthquakes, and the insensitivity of some methods to low amplitude climate forcing. Nevertheless, there were trends in some proxy records at a number of sites that had a relatively unambiguous correspondence with the instrumental climate records. These included organic matter and associated variables (C and N) and planktonic diatom assemblages at the majority of sites and chrysophytes and chironomids at a few sites. Overall for longer term studies of the Holocene, these results indicate the need to be cautious in the interpretation of proxy records, the importance of proxy method validation, the continuing need to use reinforcing multi-proxy approaches, and the need for careful site and method selection.     

Influence of vegetation change on watershed hydrology: implications for paleoclimatic interpretation of lacustrine δ18O records

Stratigraphic shifts in the oxygen isotopic (¹⁸O) and trace element (Mg and Sr) composition of biogenic carbonate from tropical lake sediment cores are often interpreted as a proxy record of the changing relation between evaporation and precipitation (E/P). Holocene ¹⁸O and Mg and Sr records from Lakes Salpetén and Petén Itzá, Guatemala were apparently affected by drainage basin vegetation changes that influenced watershed hydrology, thereby confounding paleoclimatic interpretations. Oxygen isotope values and trace element concentrations in the two lowland lakes were greatest between ~ 9000 and 6800 ¹⁴C-yr BP, suggesting relatively high E/P, but pollen data indicate moist conditions and extensive forest cover in the early Holocene. The discrepancy between pollen- and geochemically-inferred climate conditions may be reconciled if the high early Holocene ¹⁸O and trace element values were controlled principally by low surface runoff and groundwater flow to the lake, rather than high E/P. Dense forest cover in the early Holocene would have increased evapotranspiration and soil moisture storage, thereby reducing delivery of meteoric water to the lakes. Carbonate ¹⁸O and Mg and Sr decreased between 7200 and 3500 ¹⁴C-yr BP in Lake Salpetén and between 6800 and 5000 ¹⁴C-yr BP in Lake Petén Itzá. This decline coincided with palynologically documented forest loss that may have led to increased surface and groundwater flow to the lakes. In Lake Salpetén, minimum ¹⁸O values (i.e., high lake levels) occurred between 3500 and 1800 ¹⁴C-yr BP. Relatively high lake levels were confirmed by ¹⁴C-dated aquatic gastropods from subaerial soil profiles ~ 1.0–7.5 m above present lake stage. High lake levels were a consequence of lower E/P and/or greater surface runoff and groundwater inflow caused by human-induced deforestation.     

Une dépression piézométrique naturelle en hausse au Sahel (Sud-Ouest du Niger)A rising piezometric depression in the Sahel (southwestern Niger)

In southwest Niger, the Continental Terminal water table displays a natural hollow shape about 10 m in depth over an area of 4000 km². A 10-year survey of this hollow aquifer has shown that current recharge is above $\text{20 }\text{mm}\text{yr}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}$. The water table has risen continuously since the 1950–1960s as a result of land clearance. This shows a disequilibrium in the aquifer balance. The long-term recharge rate is estimated by radioisotopes to be around $\text{1 }\text{mm}\text{yr}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}$. This figure fits with the only possible origin of the piezometric depression, i.e. evapotranspiration losses in its centre. To cite this article: G. Favreau et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 395–401.