塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地风蚀起沙特征观测研究

利用塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地塔中气象站2009—2018年的地面观测资料,分析塔中地区的风蚀起沙特征,结果表明:(1)塔中地区临界起沙风速呈明显的季节变化特征,夏季>春季>秋季>冬季,临界起沙风速介于4.47～4.92 m/s;(2)春、夏季是风蚀事件的多发季节,春、夏季沙尘水平通量的平均值分别为2638.9、3298.9 ...     

鲁中地区近35年不同历时降水变化特征

利用鲁中地区8个气象站1980-2014年逐日降水资料,分析不同持续时间不同强度降水的时空变化规律。结果表明：鲁中地区近35年无特大暴雨发生,降水发生频率随降水强度和持续时间的增加而减少,降水频率与降水强度的变化规律基本一致。1日降水除小雨外,其他强度降水发生次数均呈增加趋势,最多发生在7月,大暴雨的降水强度除沂源外,其他地区呈增加趋势,暴雨降水强度在中部平原和南部山区呈增加趋势,除大暴雨外,其他不同强度降水年均发生次数主要空间变化规律一致,但在第二特征向量上存在差异;持续2日降水除暴雨年均发生次数随时间呈增加趋势外,其他强度降水均呈减少趋势,暴雨的降水强度除中西部平原外,其他地区呈增加趋势,大雨和小雨最多出现在8月,暴雨和中雨出现在7月,暴雨中北部平原最多,大雨东部平原最多,中雨、小雨山区最多;持续3日中雨和小雨年均发生次数随时间呈增加趋势,降水强度在多数地区呈增加趋势,最多出现在8月,山区最多;持续4日、5日小雨年均发生次数随时间呈减少趋势,降水强度在多数地区呈减少趋势,最多分别出现在8月、9月,空间分布均匀。     

1961—2012年塔城地区极端温度事件变化特征

摘要：选用世界气象组织推荐的极端气候指数方法,对1961—2012年塔城地区6个极端气温指数进行分析,应用百分位法定义极端温度阈值,得出塔城地区极端温度事件变化的基本事实。结果表明：塔城地区近52年来冷昼、冷夜事件和严寒日数分别以3.5 d/10a、9.3 d/10a和4.3 d/10a的速率下降,突变点分别出现在1994、1988和1979年;暖昼、暖夜事件和高温日数分别以3.6 d/10a、8.6 d/10a和0.6 d/10a的速率在上升,突变点分别出现在1989、1990和1973年;极端气温指标多存在25～28 a和5～8 a的振荡周期,在空间分布上,各指标的减少（增加）速率与纬度、地形相关,随纬度增加而多呈现出北部大,中部、南部小的特点。     

Southern meridional atmospheric circulation associated with IOD

Using the monthly wind and sea surface temperature （SST） data, southern meridional atmospheric circulation cells associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode （IOD） events in the Indian Ocean are for the first time described and examineS. The divergent wind and pressure vertical velocity are employed for the identification of atmospheric circulation cells. During the four different phases of the positive IOD events, the anomalous meridional Hadley circulation over the western Indian Ocean shows that the air rises in the tropics, flows poleward in the upper troposphere, sinks in the subtropics, and returns back to the tropics in the lower troposphere. The anomalous Hadley circulation over the eastern Indian Ocean is opposite to that over the western Indian Ocean. During positive IOD events, the meridional Hadley circulation over the eastern Indian Ocean is weakened while it is strengthened over the western Indian Ocean. Correlation analysis between the IOD index and the indices of the Hadley cells also proves that, the atmospheric circulation patterns are evident in every IOD event over the period of record.     

末次冰期亚洲季风千年尺度事件的频谱特征分析

基于神农架永兴洞3支石笋氧同位素记录,拼接重建了末次冰期88~22 ka B.P.平均分辨率达70 a的东亚季风演变序列。本文以小波诊断技术为基础,对去除65°N夏季太阳辐射和72 ka异常事件影响的石笋δ¹⁸O进行了多时间尺度分析。小波频谱分析结果表明,末次冰期亚洲季风具有明显的近8 ka、4 ka、2 ka左右的周期。其中近8 ka周期是唯一一个贯穿整个末次冰期的显著周期。小波方差分析结果也显示该时段仅有1个突出的峰值,对应时间约为7.7 ka。进一步分析发现这个周期组分其实也出现在格陵兰冰芯δ¹⁸O和南极温度变化中,可能被年龄误差和异常事件所掩盖。已有的千年尺度机制难以有力地解释该周期组分,我们利用外差法对轨道参数的周期进行分解,获得16 ka周期,这个周期的一半刚好与发现的8 ka周期相匹配。因此,地球轨道参数单独或共同作用,引起海表温、大冰盖、海洋/大陆生态系统的变化,通过大气、大洋等环流作用,从而产生地球气候系统轨道和千年尺度的振荡。

     

东昆仑地区沙松乌拉组物质来源及源区构造-热事件——来自碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学的证据

沙松乌拉组出露于东昆中构造混杂岩带,是东昆仑地区原特提斯洋洋盆打开时的沉积记录,确定其地层形成时代、物质来源及恢复构造演化过程,对研究东昆仑地区原特提斯洋的演化具有重要意义。对出露于东昆仑黑海湖—拉宁灶火沟一带的沙松乌拉组进行LA-ICP-MS碎屑锆石U-Pb年定,得到最年轻的锆石年龄为632±6 Ma,结合地层接触关系,为沙松乌拉组的时代划分提供了年龄依据;得到约650 Ma、约800 Ma、980 Ma三个明显峰值及大量未形成明显峰值的其他古老年龄,推测沙松乌拉组的主要物源有小庙群、万保沟群、晋宁期岩浆岩,次要物源为白沙河组。将得到的锆石年龄与各期构造-岩浆活动比对,认为沙松乌拉组的源区经历了古元古代早期构造-岩浆事件、中元古代晚期构造-岩浆事件和新元古代早期构造-岩浆事件。     

南海海底天然地震台阵观测实验及其数据质量分析

本文对2019年10月—2020年5月在中国南海西北次海盆布放的宽频带海底地震仪的数据进行了分析,利用长短时窗均值比算法在单个海底地震仪台站拾取了多达25万个短时事件（SDE）。对拾取到的SDE信号特征进行了分析,并根据信号特征将事件分为连续短时事件（C-SDE）和随机短时事件（R-SDE）。探讨C-SDE和R-SDE的信号源,可能的产生机制,结果表明：在布放时间段内中国南海西北次海盆存在着活跃的C-SDE信号源可能来自人类活动,如气枪放炮或者低频水声通信;R-SDE则来源于离台站很近的源,很可能是海底沉积层中的气体逃逸过程造成的沉积层破裂所导致,表明中国南海西北次海盆海底沉积层中存在气体泄露。     

A new magnitude category disaggregation approach for temporal high‐resolution rainfall intensities

Simulation of quick runoff components such as surface runoff and associated soil erosion requires temporal high‐resolution rainfall intensities. However, these data are often not available because such measurements are costly and time consuming. Current rainfall disaggregation methods have shortcomings, especially in generating the distribution of storm events. The objectives of this study were to improve point rainfall disaggregation using a new magnitude category rainfall disaggregation approach. The procedure is introduced using a coupled disaggregation approach (Hyetos and cascade) for multisite rainfall disaggregation. The new procedure was tested with ten long‐term precipitation data sets of central Germany using summer and winter precipitation to determine seasonal variability. Results showed that dividing the rainfall amount into four daily rainfall magnitude categories (1–10, 11–25, 26–50, >50 mm) improves the simulation of high rainfall intensity (convective rainfall). The Hyetos model category approach (Hyetos_Cat) with seasonal variation performs representative to observed hourly rainfall compared with without categories on each month. The mean absolute percentage accuracy of standard deviation for hourly rainfall is 89.7% in winter and 95.6% in summer. The proposed magnitude category method applied with the coupled Hyetos_Cat–cascade approach reproduces successfully the statistical behaviour of local 10‐min rainfall intensities in terms of intermittency as well as variability. The root mean square error performance statistics for disaggregated 10‐min rainfall depth ranges from 0.20 to 2.38 mm for summer and from 0.12 to 2.82 mm for the winter season in all categories. The coupled stochastic approach preserves the statistical self‐similarity and intermittency at each magnitude category with a relatively low computational burden. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Likely effects of climate change on groundwater availability in a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain

Groundwater resources are typically the main fresh water source in arid and semi‐arid regions. Natural recharge of aquifers is mainly based on precipitation; however, only heavy precipitation events (HPEs) are expected to produce appreciable aquifer recharge in these environments. In this work, we used daily precipitation and monthly water level time series from different locations over a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain to identify the critical threshold value to define HPEs that lead to appreciable aquifer recharge in this region. Wavelet and trend analyses were used to study the changes in the temporal distribution of the chosen HPEs (≥20 mm day^?1) over the observed period 1953–2012 and its projected evolution by using 18 downscaled climate projections over the projected period 2040–2099. The used precipitation time series were grouped in 10 clusters according to similarities between them assessed by using Pearson correlations. Results showed that the critical HPE threshold for the study area is 20 mm day^?1. Wavelet analysis showed that observed significant seasonal and annual peaks in global wavelet spectrum in the first sub‐period (1953–1982) are no longer significant in the second sub‐period (1983–2012) in the major part of the ten clusters. This change is because of the reduction of the mean HPEs number, which showed a negative trend over the observed period in nine clusters and was significant in five of them. However, the mean size of HPEs showed a positive trend in six clusters. A similar tendency of change is expected over the projected period. The expected reduction of the mean HPEs number is two times higher under the high climate scenario (RCP8.5) than under the moderate scenario (RCP4.5). The mean size of these events is expected to increase under the two scenarios. The groundwater availability will be affected by the reduction of HPE number which will increase the length of no aquifer recharge periods (NARP) accentuating the groundwater drought in the region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.