A spatial cross‐correlation model of spectral accelerations at multiple periods

Many seismic loss problems (such as disruption of distributed infrastructure and losses to portfolios of structures) are dependent upon the regional distribution of ground‐motion intensity, rather than intensity at only a single site. Quantifying ground‐motion over a spatially‐distributed region therefore requires information on the correlation between the ground‐motion intensities at different sites during a single event. The focus of the present study is to assess the spatial correlation between ground‐motion spectral accelerations at different periods. Ground motions from eight well‐recorded earthquakes were used to study the spatial correlations. On the basis of obtained empirical correlation estimates, we propose a geostatistics‐based method to formulate a predictive model that is suitable for simulation of spectral accelerations at multiple sites and multiple periods, in the case of crustal earthquakes in active seismic regions. While the calibration of this model and investigation of its implications were somewhat complex, the model itself is very simple to use for making correlation predictions. A user only needs to evaluate a simple equation relying on three sets of coefficients provided here to compute a correlation coefficient for spectral values at two periods and at a specified separation distance. These results may then be used in evaluating the seismic risk of portfolios of structures with differing fundamental periods. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reducing the non-axisymmetry of a planetary dynamo and an application to saturn

Abstract

If a conducting fluid shell is undergoing spin-axisymmetric differential rotation and overlies the dynamo generating region of a planet then it is capable of greatly reducing the non-spin-axisymmetric components of the generated field, provided the appropriate magnetic Reynolds number is large. The model, closely related to the electromagnetic skin effect, is quantified and applied to Saturn. The observed small dipole tilt (～ 1°) of Saturn's magnetic field can be explained because of the presence of a stably stratified conducting layer overlying the dynamo region. This layer is a predicted consequence of the thermal evolution, arises because of the limited solubility of helium in metallic hydrogen (Stevenson, 1980), and appears to be required by the Voyager infrared observations indicating depletion of helium from Saturn's atmosphere. The much larger dipole tilt angles of Jupiter and the Earth indicate the absence of any such stable, differentially rotating layer with a large magnetic Reynolds number.     

Spatial interpolation using nonlinear mathematical programming models for estimation of missing precipitation records

Abstract

New mathematical programming models are proposed, developed and evaluated in this study for estimating missing precipitation data. These models use nonlinear and mixed integer nonlinear mathematical programming (MINLP) formulations with binary variables. They overcome the limitations associated with spatial interpolation methods relevant to the arbitrary selection of weighting parameters, the number of control points within a neighbourhood, and the size of the neighbourhood itself. The formulations are solved using genetic algorithms. Daily precipitation data obtained from 15 rain gauging stations in a temperate climatic region are used to test and derive conclusions about the efficacy of these methods. The developed methods are compared with some naïve approaches, multiple linear regression, nonlinear least-square optimization, kriging, and global and local trend surface and thin-plate spline models. The results suggest that the proposed new mathematical programming formulations are superior to those obtained from all the other spatial interpolation methods tested in this study.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Teegavarapu, R.S.V., 2012. Spatial interpolation using nonlinear mathematical programming models for estimation of missing precipitation records. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 383–406.     

Comparison of direct statistical and indirect statistical-deterministic frameworks in downscaling river low-flow indices

ABSTRACT

This work explores the ability of two methodologies in downscaling hydrological indices characterizing the low flow regime of three salmon rivers in Eastern Canada: Moisie, Romaine and Ouelle. The selected indices describe four aspects of the low flow regime of these rivers: amplitude, frequency, variability and timing. The first methodology (direct downscaling) ascertains a direct link between large-scale atmospheric variables (the predictors) and low flow indices (the predictands). The second (indirect downscaling) involves downscaling precipitation and air temperature (local climate variables) that are introduced into a hydrological model to simulate flows. Synthetic flow time series are subsequently used to calculate the low flow indices. The statistical models used for downscaling low flow hydrological indices and local climate variables are: Sparse Bayesian Learning and Multiple Linear Regression. The results showed that direct downscaling using Sparse Bayesian Learning surpassed the other approaches with respect to goodness of fit and generalization ability.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor K. Hamed     

Autumn NDVI contributes more and more to vegetation improvement in the growing season across the Tibetan Plateau

ABSTRACT

Detecting changes in vegetation, distinguishing the persistence of changes, and seeking their causes during multiple periods are important to gaining a deeper understanding of vegetation dynamics. Using the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) version NDVI_3g dataset in the Tibetan Plateau, the trends in the seasonal components of NDVI and their linkage with climatic factors were analyzed over 14 asymptotic periods of 18–31 years since 1982. Dynamic trends in vegetation experienced an obvious increase at regional scale, but the increases of vegetation activity mostly tended to stall or slow down as the studied time period was extended. At pixel scale, areas with significant browning significantly expanded over 14 periods for all seasons, but for significant greening significantly increased only in autumn. The changes of vegetation activity in spring were the most drastic among three seasons. Increased increments of NDVI in summer, spring, and autumn took turns being the main reason for the enhanced vegetation activity in the growing season in the nested 14 periods. Vegetation activity was mainly regulated by a thermal factor, and the dominant climatic drivers of vegetation growth varied across different seasons and regions. We speculate that the increase of NDVI will continue but the increments will decline in all seasons except autumn.     

“Belonging” in the gentrified Golden Horn/Halic neighbourhoods of Istanbul

Mainstream gentrification research predominantly examines experiences and motivations of the middle-class gentrifier groups, while overlooking experiences of non-gentrifying groups including the impact of in situ local processes on gentrification itself. In this paper, I discuss gentrification, neighbourhood belonging and spatial distribution of class in Istanbul by examining patterns of belonging both of gentrifiers and non-gentrifying groups in historic neighbourhoods of the Golden Horn/Halic. I use multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), a methodology rarely used in gentrification research, to explore social and symbolic borders between these two groups. I show how gentrification leads to spatial clustering by creating exclusionary practices and eroding social cohesion, and illuminate divisions that are inscribed into the physical space of the neighbourhood.     

The National Archives and Public Records

Abstract

The article provides an overview of the huge cartographic holdings of The National Archives (TNA). It continues by outlining the procedures by which records are selected for permanent preservation by TNA.     

机载LiDAR数据的多回波信息分析及应用研究

本文通过分析机载LiDAR系统获取的激光数据的多回波特性,阐述了多回波信息对地物类型信息的揭示作用,并将多回波特性用于减少参与滤波的激光脚点数量。实验证明,本文提出的滤波方案,可以预先剔除掉大部分的植被激光脚点和部分的建筑物激光脚点,既减少了参与滤波的数据量,又可以改善滤波算法对建筑物和植被的滤除效果。     

黄河平滩流量的多时间尺度现象

受气候系统影响的水文系统具有多时间尺度变化规律。由于平滩流量与水沙条件变化关系密切,也必然会呈现出多时间尺度演变规律。基于黄河下游主要测站1950~2007年平滩流量及水沙资料,利用小波分析原理分析了平滩流量、流量和含沙量序列的多时间尺度变化特征,以及不同时间尺度下水沙序列与平滩流量序列之间的相关关系。结果表明,黄河下游主要测站的平滩流量序列存在5~6年和19~20年的主要时间尺度,且水沙条件多尺度变化规律与平滩流量有密切关系。此外,对黄河上游和渭河支流主要测站的平滩流量与水沙条件的多时间尺度进行了分析,发现不同河段的平滩流量序列与含沙量序列存在不同的相位差,且相位差大小随含沙量增大而减少。揭示的黄河平滩流量与水沙条件的多时间尺度变化规律,可为研究河床演变的多时间尺度现象提供参考。     

风电场风资源代表年分析法

针对代表年常规方法的局限性,采用风速年景划分法对风场风资源代表年进行订正。该方法弥补了常规方法的不足,且计算简单,便于应用。