Pseudo-fractal interpolation for risk analysis

This paper describes a new method of analyzing the risk incurred when the outcome of a decision depends on interpolated values, for example, on the flow through an aquifer sparsely sampled for permeability or on the ratio of waste to ore in a mineral deposit sparsely sampled for grade. The method uses large families of interpolations constructed between sample values using adaptations of the well-known midpoint displacement method for generating pseudo-fractional Brownian motion trajectories. The parameters defining each family are chosen interactively by specialists to incorporate their expert knowledge. Each family, or ensemble, then defines a population of values for any global characteristic (functional) such as flow rate or waste ratio. The probabilities of various outcomes are estimated by counting them and calculating their ratios. For example, if 900 out of 1000 are acceptable the chance of success is estimated to be 90%.     

区际贸易隐含碳排放转移研究进展与展望

区际贸易隐含碳排放转移是导致区际碳泄漏、碳减排权责失衡等问题的重要原因,对全球碳排放格局及碳减排效果影响重大。研究区际碳转移时空格局演化规律和内在驱动机理,研制针对性碳转移优化调控方案,对提升区域整体碳减排效率和经济生态综合效益,具有重要现实意义,近年来已引起了国内外学者越来越多的关注,逐渐成为区域可持续发展和生态经济研究的热点问题之一。本文对国内外区际碳转移的相关研究成果进行了梳理,重点总结了对中国省际隐含碳转移问题研究的进展和成果应用情况,展望了区际贸易碳转移问题未来研究的方向：进一步重视国际、省际碳排放转移间的协同研究,揭示区际碳排放转移的动态驱动力及驱动机理,探索创新基于共同责任的省际碳转移减排机制等。     

施工企业建立安全生产管理体系的探索

论述了施工企业建设现代安全生产管理体系的重要性,并总结了广东煤炭地质局建设安全生产管理体系．促进安全生产的实践经验,提出了施工企业应从以建立完善安全生产责任制为核心,健全各项规章制度．加强员工的教育培训、资金投入和安全检查五个方面为重点建立现代安全生产管理体系的思路。     

Geochemical and mantle-like isotopic (Nd, Sr) composition of the Baklan Granite from the Muratdağı Region (Banaz, Uşak), western Turkey: Implications for input of juvenile magmas in the source domains of western Anatolia Eocene–Miocene granites

The (late syn)- post-collisional magmatic activities of western and northwestern Anatolia are characterized by intrusion of a great number of granitoids. Amongst them, Baklan Granite, located in the southern part of the Muratdağı Region from the Menderes Massif (Banaz, Uşak), has peculiar chemical and isotopic characteristics. The Baklan rocks are made up by K-feldspar, plagioclase, quartz, biotite and hornblende, with accessory apatite, titanite and magnetite, and include mafic microgranular enclaves (MME). Chemically, the Baklan intrusion is of sub-alkaline character, belongs to the high-K, calc-alkaline series and displays features of I-type affinity. It is typically metaluminous to mildly peraluminous, and classified predominantly as granodiorite in composition. The spider and REE patterns show that the rocks are fractionated and have small negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu^* = 0.62–0.86), with the depletion of Nb, Ti, P and, to a lesser extent, Ba and Sr. The pluton was dated by the K–Ar method on the whole-rock, yielded ages between 17.8 ± 0.7 and 19.4 ± 0.9 Ma (Early Miocene). The intrusion possesses primitive low initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.70331–0.70452) and negative ε_Nd(t) values (−5.0 to −5.6). The chemical contrast between evolved Baklan rocks (SiO₂, 62–71 wt.%; Cr, 7–27 ppm; Ni, 5–11 ppm; Mg#, 45–51) and more primitive clinopyroxene-bearing monzonitic enclaves (SiO₂, 54–59 wt.%; Cr, 20–310 ppm; Ni, 10–70 ppm; Mg#, 50–61) signifies that there is no co-genetic link between host granite and enclaves. The chemical and isotopic characteristics of the Baklan intrusion argue for an important role of a juvenile component, such as underplated mantle-derived basalt, in the generation of the granitoids. Crustal contamination has not contributed significantly to their origin. However, with respect to those of the Baklan intrusion, the generation of the (late syn)- post-collisional intrusions with higher Nd(t) values from the western Anatolia require a much higher amount of juvenil component in their source domains.     

大型结构地震反应值模拟中的波动输入

解耦的时域有限元数值模拟技术在考虑土－结构相互作用的大型结构地震反应分析中的应用日趋成熟。为完善其中的波动输入技术，本提出 了一种波动输入时步数值模拟的简便方法，替换对自由场的频域计算，从而使结构反应分析可以完全通过时步数值模拟实现。同时，通过数值实现，对这一实施方案的有效性进行了检验。     

工程地震学在中国的发展

以对一般工程结构抗震设防的地震区划研究及重大工程结构进行的专门的地震作用研究为主线，对工程地震学在中国近半个世纪的发展作了回顾和前瞻．     

1999～2014年我国铜矿勘查投入 与找矿成果分析

1999年以来,我国在基础地质调查和矿产资源评价方面,先后开展了新一轮国土资源大调查项目、全国危机矿山接替资源找矿专项、青藏专项、新疆358专项、找矿突破战略行动纲要（2011~2020年）、地质调查评价专项（2013~2020年）、整装勘查等工作。中央财政和省级地方财政在基础地质调查和矿产勘查投入上逐年增加。这些工程的实施和勘查投入的大幅增加,使得基础地质工作程度大幅提高,铜矿勘查取得了重大突破,发现和评价了一批具有重大影响的大型或特大型矿产地。本文对我国主要有色金属矿产在过去14年的找矿成果的系统梳理与找矿成果分析,期望为我国今后对主要有色金属的勘查工作的科学部署和实现进一步的找矿突破提供参考意见。     

Riverine dominance of a nearshore marine demersal food web: evidence from stable isotope and C/N ratio analysis

The Thukela Bank, KwaZulu-Natal, supports a diverse ecosystem and South Africa’s only prawn fishery. Oceanographic studies suggest riverine input is not important for the biology of this system, whereas biological studies suggest the contrary, with prawn catches increasing with increased fluvial run-off. The aim of this study was to determine (i) the importance of riverine and marine organic matter for the Thukela Bank food web; and (ii) whether there are seasonal changes in the Thukela River stable isotope values, and, if so, whether these are reflected in the isotope values of demersal organisms. Estuarine organic matter, sediments and demersal organisms were collected from several sites across the bank in the wet and dry seasons of 2008, 2009 and 2010. Marine particulate organic matter was also collected in 2010 and analysed for δ13C and δ15N, as well as C/N ratios. There were strong seasonal changes in isotopic values of organic matter and fauna, especially faunal δ13C. There was an apparent time-lag in organisms assimilating riverine organic matter isotopic values, with the isotopic signature of demersal organisms reflecting that of riverine organic matter from the previous season, which is likely the result of tissue turnover time. In 2010, Thukela Bank sediment organic matter was of riverine origin and this maintained the demersal food web. We conclude that Thukela River organic matter is an important input to the food web of the Thukela Bank, indicating that any future damming of the catchment area could have serious consequences for this ecosystem.     

辅助模型辨识方法(3):输入非线性输出误差自回归系统

输入非线性系统包括输入非线性方程误差类系统和输入非线性输出误差类系统.针对输入非线性输出误差自回归系统,分别基于过参数化模型,基于关键项分离原理,基于数据滤波技术,研究了相应的基于过参数化模型的辅助模型递推辨识方法、基于关键项分离的辅助模型递推辨识方法、基于数据滤波的辅助模型递推辨识方法.这些方法可以推广到其他输入非线性输出误差系统、输出非线性输出误差系统、反馈非线性系统等.并给出了几个典型辨识算法的计算步骤、流程图和计算量.