强地震地点预报方法─—交汇法

利用小震调制比法、动态空区法、震群链式活动轨迹交汇法和短期震中迁移带交汇法这4种地震活动时空图像动态监测方法，结合震源模式中震源和其它单元之间的差异性以及各调整单元、调整层、深浅构造之间的差异性对若干震例进行研究，发现应用不同时段多个异常区边界或空区边界或条带交汇可求得未来强震的位置。交汇法使地震的预报范围大大缩小，这对防震减灾有一定的现实意义。另外，交汇法不仅具有明确的物理基础，而且具有可操作性和普适性。只要异常边界比较正确，采用的又是动态监测方法，这种预测强震位置的思路和方法还可推广到其它各种地震活动性参数和前兆场的分析中。     

Preliminary results on kinematic model of tectonic blocks derived from high precision GPS observations in Southwest China

ＰｒｅｌｉｍｉｎａｒｙｒｅｓｕｌｔｓｏｎｋｉｎｅｍａｔｉｃｍｏｄｅｌｏｆｔｅｃｔｏｎｉｃｂｌｏｃｋｓｄｅｒｉｖｅｄｆｒｏｍｈｉｇｈｐｒｅｃｉｓｉｏｎＧＰＳｏｂｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎｓｉｎＳｏｕｔｈｗｅｓｔＣｈｉｎａＬＩＲＥＮＨＵＡＮＧ１）（黄立人）...     

斜坡失稳时间的协同预测模型

斜坡岩体由小变形到大变形乃至滑坡的发生，实质上是由组成斜坡的各子系统协同作用的结果．将协同学引入斜坡的稳定性预测评价中，并提出了一种新的斜坡失稳时间预测模型──协同预测模型．经实例检验，该模型预测精度较高，可用于滑坡的短期或临滑预报．     

综合气体地球化学测量

本文在综合大量资料的基础上,总结了气体地球化学的发展历史,对有关综合气体测量在发展过程中出现的一些术语,阐述了一点浅见,介绍了综合气体测量的采样方法、理论依据,提出了综合气体测量的发展方向。     

泥炭档案气候变化重建的定量模型

泥炭档案气候变化重建的定量模型＊陶发祥洪业汤（中国科学院地球化学研究所，贵阳５５０００２）李汉鼎冷雪天（东北师范大学地理系，长春１３００２４）关键词泥炭档案纤维素稳定同位素气候变化定量模型用泥炭档案定量重建大气ＣＯ２浓度的研究已取得重要进展［１］，但...     

APPROACH TO KARST SOLUTION PROCESS RESPONSES ON CLIMATE

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＳｏｌｕｔｉｏｎａｓａｋａｒｓｔｇｅｏｍｏｒｐｈｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｉｎｌａｎｄｆｏｒｍｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｈａｓｌｏｎｇｂｅｅｎｒｅｃｏｇｎｉｚｅｄ.Ｓｉｎｃｅｔｈｅｋａｒｓｔｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｅｓａｒｅａｌｍｏｓｔｅｎｔｉｒｅｌｙｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎ,ｔｈｏｕｇｈｋａｒｓｔｌａｎｄｆｏｒｍｓａｒｅｎｏｔｏｎｌｙｃａｕｓｅｄｂｙｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｂｕｔａｌｓｏｂｙｅｒｏｓｉｏｎ,ｔｈｅｃｉｒｃｕｌａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｃｈｅｍｉｃａｌｃｏｍｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｋａｒｓｔｕｎ…     

Application of discovery process models in estimating petroleum resources at the play level in China

Discovery process modeling has gained wide acceptance in the Chinese exploration community. In recent years, a variety of discovery process models have been applied to the prediction of undiscovered petroleum resources at the play level in sedimentary basins in China. However, challenging problems have been encountered, particularly when one method alone has been applied to small plays in nonmarine sedimentary basins or in plays with an unusual order of discovery wells. This paper presents results gotten by using the lognormal discovery process model of the Geological Survey of Canada and the geoanchored method for three petroleum plays in basins with different geologic settings. Although the predicted shapes of the parentsize distributions which use these two models, were not always similar, the expected values of the total resources and the number of fields (pools) to be discovered are comparable. The combined use of two discovery process models in the same play compensates for the weaknesses in one method compared with the other and vice versa. Thus, more reliable estimates are the result.     

隧道开挖模拟计算中的模型识别方法初探

介绍了利用隧道施工的位移量测信息来选择计算模型的原理和方法。应用实例表明，本文所提出的方法有较好的应用前景。     

GPS Ambiguity Resolution: Impact of Time Correlation,Cross-Correlation and Satellite Elevation Dependence

In this contribution we discuss the geometry-free GPS single baseline model and show how the least-squares ambiguities are affected by changes in the stochastic model. We particularly pay attention to the effect of time correlation, cross-correlation and satellite elevation dependence. We also differentiate between the impact on the location of the ambiguity search space and the impact on the size and shape of the search space. The analysis is carried out for both the model in which the ionospheric delays are assumed absent, and for the model in which they are assumed present. The former model is applicable to short baselines only.     

Large-Eddy Simulation of Turbulent Flow Over a Rough Surface

A family of wall models is proposed that exhibits moresatisfactory performance than previousmodels for the large-eddy simulation (LES) of the turbulentboundary layer over a rough surface.The time and horizontally averaged statistics such asmean vertical profiles of windvelocity, Reynolds stress, turbulent intensities, turbulentkinetic energy and alsospectra are compared with wind-tunnel experimental data.The purpose of the present study is to obtain simulatedturbulent flows that are comparable with wind-tunnelmeasurements for use as the wind environment for thenumerical prediction by LES of source dispersion in theneutral atmospheric boundary layer.