昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。     

Lithium Abundances in the Atmospheres of SLR C-Giants WZ Cas and WX Cyg from Resonance and Subordinate Li I Lines

Lithium abundances in the atmospheres of the super Li-rich C-giants WZ Cas and WX Cyg are derived by the spectral synthesis technique using the Li I resonance line at λ670.8 nm and three subordinate lines at λλ 812.6, 610.4 and 497.2 nm. The differences between the Li abundances derived from the λ670.8 nm line and the λλ 497.2, 812.6 nm lines do not exceed ±0.5 dex. The lithium line at λ610.4 nm provides typically lower abundances than the resonance line (by ≈ 1 dex). The mean LTE and NLTE Li abundances from three Li I lines (excluding λ610.4 nm) are 4.7, 4.9 for WZ Cas, and 4.6, 4.8 for WX Cyg, respectively. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Evidence for a mid‐Pleistocene shift of ice‐drift pattern in the Nordic seas

Sediment proxy records from a continuous, 1.5 million year long deep‐sea sediment core from a site in the western Norwegian Sea were used to obtain new insights into the nature of palaeoceanographic change in the northern North Atlantic (Nordic seas) during the climatic shift of the Mid‐Pleistocene Revolution (MPR). Red‐green sediment colour and magnetic susceptibility records both reveal significant differences in their mean values when comparing the intervals older than 700 000 yr (700 ka) with those from the past 500 kyr. The timing and duration of these changes indicates that the MPR in the Nordic seas is characterised by a gradual transition lasting about 200 kyr. Together with further sedimentological evidence this suggests that the mid‐Pleistocene climate shift was accompanied by a general change in ice‐drift pattern. It is further proposed that prior to the onset of the major late Pleistocene glaciations in the Northern Hemisphere a significant proportion of the ice in the eastern Nordic seas originated from a southern provenance, whereas later it dominantly came from the surrounding landmasses. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A qualitative and quantitative evaluation of experimental model catchment evolution

Due to the geological time scales required for observation of catchment evolution, surrogates or analogues of field data are necessary to understand long‐term processes. To investigate long‐term catchment behaviour, two experimental model catchments that developed without rigid boundaries under controlled conditions are examined and a qualitative and quantitative analysis of their evolution is presented. Qualitatively, the experimental catchments have the visual appearance of field scale data. Observation demonstrates that changes in catchment shape and network form are conservative. Quantitative analysis suggests that the catchments reach an equilibrium form while a reduction in the channel network occurs. While the catchments are laboratory scale models, the results provide insights into field scale behaviour. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identification of physical processes inherent in artificial neural network rainfall runoff models

The emergence of artificial neural network (ANN) technology has provided many promising results in the field of hydrology and water resources simulation. However, one of the major criticisms of ANN hydrologic models is that they do not consider/explain the underlying physical processes in a watershed, resulting in them being labelled as black‐box models. This paper discusses a research study conducted in order to examine whether or not the physical processes in a watershed are inherent in a trained ANN rainfall‐runoff model. The investigation is based on analysing definite statistical measures of strength of relationship between the disintegrated hidden neuron responses of an ANN model and its input variables, as well as various deterministic components of a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model. The approach is illustrated by presenting a case study for the Kentucky River watershed. The results suggest that the distributed structure of the ANN is able to capture certain physical behaviour of the rainfall‐runoff process. The results demonstrate that the hidden neurons in the ANN rainfall‐runoff model approximate various components of the hydrologic system, such as infiltration, base flow, and delayed and quick surface flow, etc., and represent the rising limb and different portions of the falling limb of a flow hydrograph. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tidal effects on temperature front in the Yellow Sea

Temperature front (TF) is one of the important features in the Yellow Sea, which forms in spring, thrives in summer, and fades in autumn as thermocline declines. TF intensity ⋎S _T ⋎ is defined to describe the distribution of TF. Based on the MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled model, temperature distribution in the Yellow Sea was simulated with and without tidal effects. Along 36°N, distribution of TF from the simulated results are compared with the observations, and a quantitative analysis is introduced to evaluate the tidal effects on the forming and maintaining processes of the TF. Tidal mixing and the circulation structure adapting to it are the main causes of the TF. Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. G1999043809) and the National Science Foundation of China (No. 49736190).     

形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报

简要概括了形变大地测量学的革命性进展，研讨了它的科学特色、功能和定义以及对地球科学和防灾减灾的推动。形变大地测量学有助于从根本上击破多年来制约地震预报的“瓶颈”，但也存在不少急待解决的问题。着重研讨了在21世纪前10年，形变大地测量学如何依托多年的学科积累并充分受益于人造卫星和数字化等新技术，开展创新性研究和试验以推进地震预报。为此，对当前的研究工作提出了12条科学技术途径。最后对学科名称提出了建议。     

Generalized strain probing of constitutive models

Advanced material constitutive models are used to describe complex soil behaviour. These models are often used in the solution of boundary value problems under general loading conditions. Users and developers of constitutive models need to methodically investigate the represented soil response under a wide range of loading conditions. This paper presents a systematic procedure for probing constitutive models. A general incremental strain probe, 6D hyperspherical strain probe (HSP), is introduced to examine rate‐independent model response under all possible strain loading conditions. Two special cases of HSP, the true triaxial strain probe (TTSP) and the plane‐strain strain probe (PSSP), are used to generate 3‐D objects that represent model stress response to probing. The TTSP, PSSP and general HSP procedures are demonstrated using elasto‐plastic models. The objects resulting from the probing procedure readily highlight important model characteristics including anisotropy, yielding, hardening, softening and failure. The PSSP procedure is applied to a Neural Network (NN) based constitutive model. It shows that this probing is especially useful in understanding NN constitutive models, which do not contain explicit functions for yield surface, hardening, or anisotropy. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青海省沙柳河南区有色金属矿成矿物质来源及矿床成矿模式探讨

本文简述了沙柳河南区有色金属矿床的基本特征。通过对成矿热液及成矿物质的来源与性质的研究,认为该矿床的成因类型为火山沉积—接触交代改造叠加型,进而探讨了该矿床的成矿模式。