An analytical approach to ascertain saturation‐excess versus infiltration‐excess overland flow in urban and reference landscapes

Uncontrolled overland flow drives flooding, erosion, and contaminant transport, with the severity of these outcomes often amplified in urban areas. In pervious media such as urban soils, overland flow is initiated via either infiltration‐excess (where precipitation rate exceeds infiltration capacity) or saturation‐excess (when precipitation volume exceeds soil profile storage) mechanisms. These processes call for different management strategies, making it important for municipalities to discern between them. In this study, we derived a generalized one‐dimensional model that distinguishes between infiltration‐excess overland flow (IEOF) and saturation‐excess overland flow (SEOF) using Green–Ampt infiltration concepts. Next, we applied this model to estimate overland flow generation from pervious areas in 11 U.S. cities. We used rainfall forcing that represented low‐ and high‐intensity events and compared responses among measured urban versus predevelopment reference soil hydraulic properties. The derivation showed that the propensity for IEOF versus SEOF is related to the equivalence between two nondimensional ratios: (a) precipitation rate to depth‐weighted hydraulic conductivity and (b) depth of soil profile restrictive layer to soil capillary potential. Across all cities, reference soil profiles were associated with greater IEOF for the high‐intensity set of storms, and urbanized soil profiles tended towards production of SEOF during the lower intensity set of storms. Urban soils produced more cumulative overland flow as a fraction of cumulative precipitation than did reference soils, particularly under conditions associated with SEOF. These results will assist cities in identifying the type and extent of interventions needed to manage storm water produced from pervious areas.     

Impact of climate indicators on continental‐scale potential groundwater recharge in Africa

In the last decades, human activity has been contributing to climate change that is closely associated with an increase in temperatures, increase in evaporation, intensification of extreme dry and wet rainfall events, and widespread melting of snow and ice. Understanding the intricate linkage between climate warming and the hydrological cycle is crucial for sustainable management of groundwater resources, especially in a vulnerable continent like Africa. This study investigates the relationship between climate‐change drivers and potential groundwater recharge (PGR) patterns across Africa for a long‐term record (1960–2010). Water‐balance components were simulated by using the PCR‐GLOBWB model and were reproduced in both gridded maps and latitudinal trends that vary in space with minima on the Tropics and maxima around the Equator. Statistical correlations between temperature, storm occurrences, drought, and PGR were examined in six climatic regions of Africa. Surprisingly, different effects of climate‐change controls on PGR were detected as a function of latitude in the last three decades (1980–2010). Temporal trends observed in the Northern Hemisphere of Africa reveal that the increase in temperature is significantly correlated to the decline of PGR, especially in the Northern Equatorial Africa. The climate indicators considered in this study were unable to explain the alarming negative trend of PGR observed in the Sahelian region, even though the Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values report a 15% drought stress. On the other hand, increases in temperature have not been detected in the Southern Hemisphere of Africa, where increasing frequency of storm occurrences determine a rise of PGR, particularly in southern Africa. Time analysis highlights a strong seasonality effect, while PGR is in‐phase with rainfall patterns in the summer (Northern Hemisphere) and winter (Southern Hemisphere) and out‐of‐phase during the fall season. This study helps to elucidate the mechanism of the processes influencing groundwater resources in six climatic zones of Africa, even though modelling results need to be validated more extensively with direct measurements in future studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calibration of paired watersheds: Utility of moving sums in presence of externalities

Historically, paired watershed studies have been used to quantify the hydrological effects of land use and management practices by concurrently monitoring 2 similar watersheds during calibration (pretreatment) and post‐treatment periods. This study characterizes seasonal water table and flow response to rainfall during the calibration period and tests a change detection technique of moving sums of recursive residuals (MOSUM) to select calibration periods for each control–treatment watershed pair when the regression coefficients for daily water table elevation were most stable to minimize regression model uncertainty. The control and treatment watersheds were 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old intensely managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) with natural understory, 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old loblolly pine intercropped with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), 1 watershed of 14–15‐year‐old thinned loblolly pine with natural understory (control), and 1 watershed of switchgrass only. The study period spanned from 2009 to 2012. Silvicultural operational practices during this period acted as external factors, potentially shifting hydrologic calibration relationships between control and treatment watersheds. MOSUM results indicated significant changes in regression parameters due to silvicultural operations and were used to identify stable relationships for water table elevation. None of the calibration relationships developed using this method were significantly different from the classical calibration relationship based on published historical data. We attribute that to the similarity of historical and 2010–2012 leaf area index on control and treatment watersheds as moderated by the emergent vegetation. Although the MOSUM approach does not eliminate the need for true calibration data or replace the classic paired watershed approach, our results show that it may be an effective alternative approach when true data are unavailable, as it minimizes the impacts of external disturbances other than the treatment of interest.     

Stormflow concentration–discharge dynamics of suspended sediment and dissolved phosphorus in an agricultural watershed

Concentration–discharge (C-Q) relationships are an effective tool for identifying watershed biogeochemical source and transport dynamics over short and long timescales. We examined stormflow C-Q, hysteresis, and flushing patterns of total suspended sediment (TSS) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) in two stream reaches of a severely impaired agricultural watershed in northeastern Wisconsin, USA. The upper watershed reach—draining a relatively flat, row crop-dominated contributing area—showed predominantly anti-clockwise TSS hysteresis during storms, suggesting that particulate materials were mobilized more from distal upland sources than near- and in-channel areas. In contrast, the incised lower watershed reach produced strong TSS flushing responses on the rising limb of storm hydrographs and clockwise hysteresis, signalling rapid mobilization of near- and in-channel materials with increasing event flows. C-Q relationships for SRP showed complex patterns in both the upper and lower reaches, demonstrating largely non-linear chemodynamic C-Q behaviour during events. As with TSS, anti-clockwise SRP hysteresis in the upper reach suggested a delay in the hydrologic connectivity between SRP sources and the stream, with highly variable SRP concentrations during some events. A broad range of clockwise, anti-clockwise, and complex SRP hysteresis patterns occurred in the lower watershed, possibly influenced by in-channel legacy P stores and connection to tile drainage networks in the lower watershed area. Total suspended sediment and SRP responses were also strongly related to precipitation event characteristics including antecedent precipitation, recovery period, and precipitation intensity, highlighting the complexity of stormflow sediment and phosphorus responses in this severely impaired agricultural stream.     

风暴分类识别技术在人工防雹中的应用

利用新一代多普勒天气雷达资料,在风暴跟踪识别算法的基础上,发展了风暴分类技术,以提高人工防雹作业指挥的效率。首先以SCIT算法为基础,结合风暴的结构特征,综合利用雷达、探空资料,自动提取风暴结构特征指数;其次采用基于决策树模型的风暴自动分类技术,将风暴按强度分为雷雨云、单体风暴、多单体风暴和强风暴;最后根据风暴强度、高度和位置等属性,对有可能产生冰雹的单体,结合GIS,自动对下游方向或附近作业点进行预警或输出作业参数。通过对2006—2014年期间重庆、辽宁大连和河南三门峡三地发生的较为典型的31次冰雹天气过程、182站次冰雹样本的检验来看:该方法通过对风暴按强度、垂直结构等综合属性进行分类,能有效提高冰雹识别的命中率、降低空报率,其中强风暴的命中率能达到100%,空报率仅为11.4%。能有效提高人工防雹作业的自动化程度,对防雹作业的科学决策有着重要参考作用。     

Effects of linear and exponential heterogeneity on the dynamic response of a moving load in an irregular isotropic half-space: a comparative study

Heterogeneity, being a trivial feature inside the earth or in a geostructure, makes a strong basis for its consideration in the study of geomechanics. Inclusion of the concept of heterogeneity along with irregularity in the medium brings a novelty to the existing literature related to the study of the moving load. The present study investigates the effects of linear and exponential heterogeneity on the dynamic response due to a normal load moving with constant velocity on a rough irregular heterogeneous isotropic half-space in a comparative approach. Expressions for both normal and shear stresses for either case of heterogeneity have been established in closed form. Substantial effects of the affecting parameters such as depth, irregularity factor, maximum depth of irregularity, frictional coefficient, linear heterogeneity parameter and exponential heterogeneity parameter on normal and shear stresses for both the cases of heterogeneity have been observed. Numerical computation has been carried out and the effects of said parameters have been meticulously examined by means of graphs. Moreover, different cases of heterogeneity and homogeneity along with various types of irregularity namely rectangular, parabolic and no irregularity are compared which serve as a focal theme of the study.     

Application of Linear Mean-Square Estimation in Ocean Engineering

The attempt to obtain long-term observed data around some sea areas we concern is usually very hard or even impossible in practical offshore and ocean engineering situations. In this paper, by means of linear mean-square estimation method, a new way to extend short-term data to long-term ones is developed. The long-term data about concerning sea areas can be constructed via a series of long-term data obtained from neighbor oceanographic stations, through relevance analysis of different data series. It is effective to cover the insufficiency of time series prediction method’s overdependence upon the length of data series, as well as the limitation of variable numbers adopted in multiple linear regression model. The storm surge data collected from three oceanographic stations located in Shandong Peninsula are taken as examples to analyze the number-selection effect of reference oceanographic stations (adjacent to the concerning sea area) and the correlation coefficients between sea sites which are selected for reference and for engineering projects construction respectively. By comparing the N-year return-period values which are calculated from observed raw data and processed data which are extended from finite data series by means of the linear mean-square estimation method, one can draw a conclusion that this method can give considerably good estimation in practical ocean engineering, in spite of different extreme value distributions about raw and processed data.     

扬子地台东南缘下寒武统清虚洞组风暴沉积特征及其重要意义

在扬子地台东南缘,下寒武统龙王庙阶清虚洞组主要由浅水碳酸盐岩组成。在野外露头剖面实测和室内镜下薄片观察的基础上,大量风暴沉积被发现于不同剖面清虚洞组的不同层位中,同时大量风暴诱发形成的沉积构造被识别出来,包括侵蚀基底、粗粒滞留沉积、粒序层理、平行层理、丘状交错层理(少见并且值得怀疑)以及沙纹层理,组成了多种类型的风暴沉积序列。结合更靠扬子东南缘的深水剖面中重力流沉积的缺乏,可以推断早寒武世龙王庙期扬子地台的沉积模式为碳酸盐缓坡。结合风暴的形成机制以及清虚洞组风暴沉积的发育特征(尤其是粗粒滞留砾屑的定向排列和典型丘状交错层理的缺乏),可以推断研究区风暴沉积形成于强烈的冬季风暴作用,并且早寒武世龙王庙期华南的古地理位置应当位于中纬度地区,这一结论对一些著名的全球古地理重建方案提出了质疑。同时中纬度地区大规模发育蒸发岩和碳酸盐岩还佐证了寒武纪地球处于热室(Hothouse)时期。     

普朗斑岩型铜矿床成矿元素多重分形特征及其矿化强度指示

成矿元素品位的变化受控于长期地质作用过程,具有较强的非线性特征,定量刻画其变化特征有助于深入理解成矿过程,并为找矿预测提供理论依据。运用多重分形去趋势移动均值（MFDMA） 法,分析云南普朗斑岩型铜矿床4号勘探线钻孔Cu元素品位的多重分形特征及其对矿化强度的指示意义。结果显示：所有钻孔Cu元素品位具有多重分形特征,且不同矿化等级的元素分布存在局部奇异性差异,多重分形强度随矿化强度等级减弱而增加;这些特征指示在钾硅化带—带内侧强矿化钻孔的高品位相对聚集,而带外侧角岩化—青磐岩化带的高品位相对分散;通过数据随机重排技术推测Cu品位多重分形结构奇异性差异是由其分布概率密度和长相关性共同作用引起,后者的作用贡献大于前者。     

两次强降水过程雨滴谱特征及差异

利用寿县观测站内的Parsivel激光雨滴谱仪结合观测站雨量数据及雷达基数据,分析了发生在2015年6月26—30日梅雨期间和2015年8月7—10日超强台风"苏迪罗"影响期间2次强降水过程的雨滴谱结构特征及其差异,拟合了雨强与雷达反射率因子之间的关系。结果表明:雨强的大小直接影响雨滴谱的特征参量,且随着雨强增大而增大;梅雨锋暴雨中1.0mm直径≤1.5mm的粒子所占比例最多,雨强贡献率最大;台风雨中0.75mm直径≤1.0mm的粒子所占比例最多,但1.0mm直径≤1.25mm的粒子对雨强的贡献最大,说明较大粒子对强降水的贡献较大。