Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

The instantaneous total mortality rate(Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis,abundance and catch forecast,and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort(CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method,the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time,but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant,and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z,and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates(the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore,the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them,but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod(G adus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997,and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.     

中国西南部三叠纪海相生物群及其集群死亡事件

中国西南部三叠纪海相生物群主要有海生爬行类、鱼类、棘皮类、菊石类、双壳类、腹足类及节肢动物等,分布范围包括贵州关岭、兴义、盘县和云南罗平一带的中—上三叠统关岭组、竹竿坡组及小凹组灰黑色钙质泥岩及泥质灰岩地层。这些生物群高度分异,数量丰富,反映了地球生命在经历了二叠纪末大绝灭以及早三叠世的相对停滞期后,在中三叠世开始进入迅速辐射演化的新阶段。这样不同类型和不同生长阶段的大量海洋动物同时集群死亡,并被迅速封埋保存成化石,反映了当时多次发生突发灾变事件。这与该生物群所处的古地理位置恰好位于华南板块、江南造山带及印度支那板块交界区构造活动带的海湾盆地环境有密切关系。推测那里滞流深水区还原环境形成硫化氢水团,在印支造山运动期间多次发生的海底地震及火山活动时,其硫化氢水团及海底富含碳酸盐的软泥泛起,混合成高密度有毒浊水团,侵入海洋生物群生存的清澈浅水区,导致大量海洋生物中毒窒息,出现突发性集群死亡,随后又被有毒浊水团携带的泥沙迅速封埋,在以后的成岩作用中保存为灰黑色钙质泥岩及泥质灰岩中的精美化石。     

Culture environment and hatchery of origin influence growth,condition and feeding organ morphology in the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas in South Africa

South Africa lacks a commercial oyster hatchery. To inform the sourcing of seed for future hatchery establishments, we compared half-sib Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas cohorts from hatcheries in Namibia and Chile. We measured oyster growth, mortality, condition and feeding organ morphology in Algoa Bay (AB, Eastern Cape) and Saldanha Bay (SB, Western Cape), South Africa, from July 2011 to June 2012. Within SB, 14.3% of mean daily sea temperatures exceeded this species’ thermal optimum of 19 °C, compared to 50.5% in AB. Food abundance (mean daily chlorophyll a concentration) in SB (7.8 mg m^–3) was double that in AB (3.9 mg m^–3) where, presumably to increase particle clearance rates in a relatively phytoplankton-poor environment, oysters had larger gill:palp surface area ratios. Plankton fatty acid profiles (indicators of food quality) differed between locations. In AB, instantaneous growth rates differed between cohorts, and trends varied seasonally. Within both locations, condition index was usually higher in Chilean oysters, whereas shell density was higher in Namibian oysters. In AB only, Chilean seed suffered substantially higher summer mortalities than Namibian seed, suggesting that the latter are more suited to temperatures in AB. AB should also be assessed for culture of the indigenous oyster species that occur there.     

Bayesian analysis of zero inflated spatiotemporal HIV/TB child mortality data through the INLA and SPDE approaches: Applied to data observed between 1992 and 2010 in rural North East South Africa

Longitudinal mortality data with few deaths usually have problems of zero-inflation. This paper presents and applies two Bayesian models which cater for zero-inflation, spatial and temporal random effects. To reduce the computational burden experienced when a large number of geo-locations are treated as a Gaussian field (GF) we transformed the field to a Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRF) by triangulation. We then modelled the spatial random effects using the Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs). Inference was done using a computationally efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) called Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) suited for GMRF. The models were applied to data from 71,057 children aged 0 to under 10 years from rural north-east South Africa living in 15,703 households over the years 1992–2010. We found protective effects on HIV/TB mortality due to greater birth weight, older age and more antenatal clinic visits during pregnancy (adjusted RR (95% CI)): 0.73(0.53;0.99), 0.18(0.14;0.22) and 0.96(0.94;0.97) respectively. Therefore childhood HIV/TB mortality could be reduced if mothers are better catered for during pregnancy as this can reduce mother-to-child transmissions and contribute to improved birth weights. The INLA and SPDE approaches are computationally good alternatives in modelling large multilevel spatiotemporal GMRF data structures.     

A conception of casualty control based seismic design for buildings

Earthquake disaster is still the number one among all natural disasters, particularly, in terms of destructive power in causing deaths. Can earthquake engineers control seismic casualties through the seismic design of buildings? For this purpose, a conception of casualty control based seismic design is presented and a “two-step decision-making” method is proposed for determining the optimum seismic design intensity (or ground-motion) for controlling both seismic death and economic losses. The key problems in establishing the model are to determine the appropriate socially acceptable level of earthquake mortality and establish the corresponding objective function and /or constraint conditions in determining the optimum seismic design intensity. Ten different grades of socially acceptable mortality are suggested and the final socially acceptable mortality level was proposed for seismic design based on a questionnaire that was distributed nationwide in China. Finally, the method was applied to eight cities with different seismic hazard in China and the effects of various grades of acceptable earthquake mortality on seismic design intensity are analyzed.