华南壳幔结构与动力学的宽频地震观测研究

了解华南各岩石圈块体壳幔结构和各向异性方面的差异是揭示华南深部构造演化的基础。本文利用布设于华南的两条宽频地震测线观测数据,采用多种地震学方法对华南的地壳上地幔结构和各向异性进行了研究。接收函数结果表明,华南地区地壳厚度和岩石圈厚度都较薄,地壳厚度自东南沿海向西北内陆增厚,扬子克拉通的泊松比(波速比)低于华夏块体,表明扬子克拉通地壳较华夏块体更偏长英质。约北纬29°以北的扬子克拉通地幔转换带厚度明显增厚,可能是由地幔转换带底部停滞的冷的古太平洋板片或中生代克拉通碰撞残留造成的。层析成像结果显示华南上地幔具有很强的横向差异性,上地幔中的强烈低速异常体可能对应了晚中生代发生广泛岩浆作用时的岩浆房和岩浆通道。台湾下方的上地幔存在南北横向差异明显的高速异常,分别对应台湾南部向东俯冲的欧亚板块及台湾北部向北俯冲的菲律宾海板块。俯冲的欧亚板块在台湾南部是连续的,而在台湾中北部,由于与菲律宾海板块的相互作用,俯冲的欧亚板块被折断。剪切波分裂结果显示,以江绍断裂为界,华夏块体与扬子克拉通的岩石圈地幔各向异性存在明显的横向变化,表明两者的构造演化过程有显著差异。     

A dipole mode at thermocline layer in the tropical Indian Ocean

Temperature data at different layers of the past 45 years were studied and we found adiploe mode in the thermocline layer (DMT): anomalously cold sea temperature off the coast of Sumatra and warm sea temperature in the western Indian Ocean. First, we analyzed the temperature and the temperature anomaly (TA) along the equatorial Indian Ocean in different layers. This shows that stronger cold and warm TA signals appeared at subsurface than at the surface in the tropical Indian O-cean. This result shows that there may be a strong dipole mode pattern in the subsurface tropical Indian Ocean. Secondly we used Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) to analyze the TA at thermocline layer. The first EOF pattern was a dipole mode pattern. Finally we analyzed the correlations between DMT and surface tropical dipole mode (SDM), DMT and Nino 3 SSTA, etc. and these correlations are strong.     

A Reconstruction of Observed Profiles in the Sea East of Japan Using Vertical Coupled Temperature-Salinity EOF Modes

It is important to estimate hard-to-observe parameters in the ocean interior from easy-to-observe parameters. This study therefore demostrates a reconstruction of observed temperature and salinity profiles of the sea east of Japan (30°≈40°N, 140°≈150°E). The reconstruction was done by estimating suboptimal state from several values of the observed profiles and/or sea surface dynamic height (SDH) calculated from the profiles. The estimation used a variational method with vertical coupled temperature-salinity empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes. Profiles of temperature and salinity in the subtropical region are effectively reconstructed from in situ temperature profile data, or sea surface temperature (SST) and SDH. For example, the analyzed temperature field from SST and SDH has an accuracy to within 1°C in the subtropical region. Salinity in the sea north of Kuroshio, however, is difficult to estimate because of its complex variability which is less correlated with temperature than in the subtropical region. Sea surface salinity is useful to estimate the subsurface structure. We also show the possibility that the estimation is improved by considering nonlinearity in the equation calculating SDH from temperature and salinity analysis values in order to examine the misfit between analysis and observation. Analysis using TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry data instead of SDH was also performed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

热带大西洋年际和年代际变率的时空结构模拟

使用美国夏威夷大学发展的中等复杂程度海洋模式(IOM)在给定表面强迫条件下模拟了热带大西洋上层海洋年际和年代际变率的时空结构.利用NCEP的41a(1958～1998年)逐月平均表面资料作为强迫场,积分海洋模式41a作为控制试验,并利用模式分别做动量(风应力)通量和热量通量无异常变化的平行试验,与控制试验作比较.对3组试验模拟上层海洋变率状况的比较,并按年际和年代际时间尺度分别分析,揭示表面风应力和热通量异常对海表面温度和温跃层深度变化的影响,并比较了其影响的相对重要性.结果表明模式成功地模拟出了热带大西洋上层海洋的变率.模式模拟的海表面温度年际变化主要表现为弱ENSO型,年代际变化表现为南、北大西洋变化相反的偶极子型.在年际时间尺度上,热力强迫和动力强迫对海表温度变化都有贡献,其中赤道外海表面温度异常(SSTA)变化主要由热通量异常引起,而近赤道SSTA的变化主要由动量异常强迫引起.在年代际时间尺度上,热通量强迫的作用远比动量强迫重要.模式不仅能够模拟SST在年际和年代际时间尺度上的变率,还能够模拟温跃层深度在年际和年代际时间尺度上的变率.年际和年代际时间尺度上,温跃层深度的变率主要由动量异常决定,热通量异常强迫的贡献很小.     

水平加筋地基极限承载力的极限上限分析法

水平加筋是广泛应用的软土地基处理方法之一,而水平加筋地基极限承载力的确定是其地基处理设计的重要依据。因此,首先结合条形基础下水平加筋地基的工程特点,在探讨其承载机制和破坏特点的基础上,考虑破坏间断面上筋材与地基土体的变形协调,构建出反映加筋参数变化影响的可变破坏模式及机动允许速度场;然后,在此基础上,通过重点研究筋材的能量耗散分析方法,并引入上限极限分析理论,建立出条形基础下水平加筋地基极限承载力分析模型,再引入序列二次规划优化分析理论,建立出条形基础下水平加筋地基极限承载力确定方法,它能充分反映加筋设计参数对地基破坏模式及承载力的影响;最后,通过试验结果与该方法及现有同类分析模型结果的比较分析,表明了该模型与方法的合理性与可行性。     

全球海洋环流模式中上层海洋对表面强迫的响应和调整 I. 年际变率

利用一个较高分辨率的全球海洋环流模式在COADS1945～1993年逐月平均资料的强迫下对海温和环流场进行了模拟试验,研究了全球热带海洋(主要是热带太平洋)海温和环流场的年际变化特征及模式ENSO冷暖事件演变的控制机理.结果表明,模式成功地再现了和观测一致的海温和环流的年际变化以及ENSO演变特征.其中热带印度洋年际SST变率的主要模态表现为与ENSO相联系的海盆尺度的一致性增暖或变冷现象,次级模态为热带印度洋偶极子模态;热带大西洋的SST年际变率表现为类ENSO的年际振荡现象.在热带太平洋,SST年际变化主要表现为ENSO型,环流的年际变率表现为与ENSO相对应的热带海洋质量循环圈的年际异常.对应于暖(冷)事件,前期赤道海洋垂直环流圈显示出减弱(增强)的特征.其中南赤道流异常的位相较Nino3区海温总体要超前5个月左右的时间;赤道上翻流异常的位相在表层要超前4个月,并随时间由上至下扩展;赤道潜流的异常则显示出东传特征,其中最早的较为显著的异常发生ENSO成熟前3个月180°附近.在模式ENSO冷暖事件的演变过程中,次表层海温异常沿赤道的东传起了关键作用,模式的ENSO模态主要表现为"时滞振子"模态.     

Investigation of the hydrate reservoir production under different depressurization modes

Abstract

Large reserves of natural gas hydrates exist, and the depressurization method has the greatest potential for gas hydrate reservoir recovery. Currently, the most commonly adopted depressurization simulation method is a constant bottom-hole pressure production scheme. This study proposes a new depressurization mode with decreasing bottom-hole pressure. The production characteristic was numerically investigated using this method. The results show the following: (1) As the depressurization exponent (n) decreases, the development effect improves, and production indexes including cumulative gas production/dissociation and gas-water ratio increase. However, the reservoir energy consumption is higher and the hydrate reformation is more severe. (2) Compared to the proposed depressurization mode, the hydrate production index of the constant bottom-hole pressure production (n?=?0) is better. However, the hydrate reservoir energy consumption is higher and the hydrate reformation is more severe using constant bottom-hole pressure production. (3) To achieve a balance between production and reservoir energy consumption during depressurization production, the bottom-hole pressure should be controlled by selecting a suitable depressurization exponent between n_min and n_max, which can be determined through numerical simulations.     

Seismic attenuation estimation using a complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition-based method

The frequency attenuation gradient method can provide important information for hydrocarbon detection. In this paper, a method using Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD), Hilbert transform and the least-squares curve-fitting is proposed for seismic attenuation estimation as an effective frequency attenuation gradient estimation approach. We first use CEEMD to obtain the different Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs), which have a narrow band and can enhance the physical meaning of instantaneous attributes trace by trace. The time-frequency spectrum, which is computed using a Hilbert transform of each IMF, is represented as a spectrum with a single-peak that has narrow side lobes, which is conducive to frequency attenuation gradient estimation. Second, for each time sample, the frequency-amplitude spectrum of each IMF trace is extracted from the time-frequency spectrum to conduct the attenuation gradient computation. Then, the logarithm operation is performed for each IMF trace. Due to the very narrow bands of some IMFs in some seismic traces, a variable frequency window is adopted along the IMF trace according to the local data characteristics. Finally, the attenuation gradient for each IMF in a seismic trace can be computed using least-squares fitting. A different IMF reflects a seismic trace with a different spatiotemporal scale and can highlight different geologic and stratigraphic information. The correlation weighted average operation is used to highlight some useful details in seismic trace and obtains the attenuation gradient for each seismic trace. Field data examples demonstrate our method and its effectiveness. The proposed method can stably estimate the frequency attenuation gradient.     

东江流域枯水期最长连续无降水日数的变化特征

利用1956-2008年东江流域各降雨站点逐日降雨资料,建立枯水期最长连续无降水日数时间序列（LCDD）,采用经验模态分解（EMD）方法分析该序列的多尺度振荡变化及趋势变化,应用Mann-Kendall法识别突变点,采用R／S分析方法探讨变化趋势的持续性特征,并初步分析LCDD变化的可能原因。结果表明：近53年来,最长...     

基于海洋气候数据集的区域海平面变化非线性预测

本文基于中国首套长时间序列、高精度、高时空一致性的全球海洋气候数据集产品, 利用1993年1月至2015年12月的山东半岛近海海平面异常数据, 构建了基于集合经验模式分解(EEMD)和长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)的海平面非线性变化组合预测模型。EEMD可以得到海平面异常的各周期项、线性趋势及残差部分, LSTM模型可对其进行逐个预测并重构得到最终的海平面异常预测结果。EEMD-LSTM组合模型海平面异常预测的均方根误差仅为25.87 mm, 取得了令人满意的效果。基于该组合模型预测2016-2025年山东半岛近海海平面上升速率将达到3.54 mm·a^-1。