上海复合极端风暴洪水淹没模拟

河口三角洲和沿海城市面临着台风、暴雨、高潮位和上游下泄洪水叠加的“四碰头”复合极端风暴洪水的严重威胁。构建了大气-海洋-陆地相耦合的一体化数值模拟系统,实现了上海市“风”“暴”“潮”“洪”多灾种复合情景的极端洪涝淹没模拟,并验证了耦合方法的有效性,为复合风暴洪水的一体化模拟提供了一套可行的数值模拟方法。在9711台风影响下,模拟了1998年堤防升级改造后淹没面积(水深>0.2m)比改造前减少了62%,表明沿海沿江堤防设施建设在上海市防台防汛中起着关键性的作用。复合极端风暴洪水的有效模拟可为财产保险和未来市政规划提供参考。     

重复压裂转向机制流-固耦合分析

重复压裂已成为油田老井挖潜、稳产增产的重要技术手段,而地应力转向机制与压裂时机选择一直是制约该技术增产效果的关键问题。对ABAQUS有限元软件平台进行了二次开发,考虑储层孔隙度和渗透性随岩石体积应变的动态演化,实现了流体压力变化与岩石物性参数的全面耦合,并分析了重复压裂转向机制。结果表明,地应力转向现象普遍存在,人工裂缝对地应力的影响范围有限,而孔隙压力变化是造成地应力转向的主要因素;随着生产的持续进行,地层压力下降变缓,岩石体积应变变化趋缓,导致渗透率下降趋于平稳,应力转向距离逐渐增大并最终趋稳;应力差越大、应力转向距离越小,越难形成重复压裂转向裂缝。其研究结果实现了流-固耦合作用下地应力转向的可视化描述,直观地模拟结果有利于指导重复压裂的应用实施。     

Internal testing of a numerical model of hillslope–channel coupling using laboratory flume experiments

The numerical model COUP 2D simulates the hydrological coupling between hillslopes and the river channel during a rainfall event. In order to test the numerical model, a 1:100 scaled laboratory flume which was modified to incorporate lateral hillslope elements, was used to run a series of experiments in which hillslope angle, channel angle, hillslope discharge and channel discharge were the varying parameters. Overall, there were 18 different experimental configurations with three replicates carried out for each condition, leading to a total of 54 experiments. These conditions were then used to parameterize and run COUP 2D. Internal model outputs of flow depth and flow velocity at four cross‐sections in the channel were compared to the measurements made in the physical model for the same parameter conditions. Statistical comparisons of the measured and modelled data were carried out for each experiment and across all experiments, using two goodness‐of‐fit measures—root mean square error and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency—in order to assess the performance of the model over an entire simulation as well as over all the simulations. The main effects on the goodness‐of‐fit measures for flow depth of each experimental variable, as well as the interactions between variables, were evaluated using statistical modelling. The results show that the model captures flow‐depth variations in response to changing channel and hillslope parameters. Statistical modelling suggests that the main effects on model error are cross‐section position, channel angle and channel discharge. Significant interactions also occur between all the channel variables and between the channel variables and hillslope discharge. The results of the testing procedure have significant implications for the consideration of different model components and for the interaction between data‐ and model evaluation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中、低纬度地区电离层不同层结间的耦合对夜晚F区不规则结构的影响

电离层不规则结构的形成和演化与电离层等离子体不稳定性密切相关 .长期以来 ,在中低纬区扩展 -F现象的研究中 ,没有考虑电离层上下层结之间的相互作用 .本文从理论上全面探讨了在中纬度地区 ,E区可变的Pedersen电导率和Hall电导率 ,与F区可变的Pedersen电导率的共同作用对F区梯度漂移不稳定性的影响 ,导出了存在这种耦合时电离层梯度漂移不稳定性的统一表达式 .这一耦合理论不但解释了实际观测中发现的 ,在某些地方电离层F区顶部的不稳定性发生率要高于F区底部这一现象 ;同时还表明 ,电离层E区与F区的耦合对F区夜晚梯度漂移不稳定性的形成不仅会有阻碍作用 ,同时还使得中、低纬度地区的扰动增长具有了方向的选择性 .该理论的一个重要结论是 ,F区中某一地区能否发展出梯度漂移不稳定性 ,并不完全由当地电离层F区的状态决定 ,同一根磁力线连接的、位于不同纬度地区的E区层结对其发展和演化也会有相当大的影响 .     

帕米尔东北缘地区构造变形特征与盆山结构

帕米尔东北缘乌泊尔地区是正确认识帕米尔北缘盆山结构和构造变形特征非常关键的地区,本文利用连续电磁剖面(CEMP)资料和地震资料,并结合野外地质调查资料和钻井资料,对帕米尔东北缘乌泊尔地区的盆山结构和构造变形特征进行了研究。认为帕米尔东北缘及其以北地区的盆山结构表现为帕米尔造山带向北冲断和南天山向南冲断所形成的对冲结构; 帕米尔山前为基底卷入式构造,古生界—中生界沿高角度的逆冲断层推覆到新近系和第四系之上,形成山前的古生界—中生界逆冲推覆带; 北侧由受乌泊尔断裂控制的深部隐伏冲断体系和浅部的第四纪背驮盆地所构成。研究区的新生代构造变形时间开始于上新世晚期,并持续变形至今,形成了下更新统西域组（Q1x）与下伏上新统、Q2与Q1和Q3 4与Q2之间的不整合。研究区最小构造缩短量为486 km,缩短率为481％。     

Microbial biomass response to different quantities and sources of organic matter in Brazilian coastal sediments

This study investigates the benthic microbial responses to organic matter (OM) variations in quantity and sources in two shallow water bays (Fortaleza and Ubatuba Bays) on the SE coast of Brazil on six occasions during the year. The pelagic and benthic compartments of the bays were evaluated by: (i) nutrients and chlorophyll a (Chl a) in the water column; (ii) quantity and sources of OM in the sediment (Chl a, total organic carbon and total nitrogen and lipid biomarker composition); and (iii) microbial biomass in sediments as an indicator of active benthic response. Although there were changes in water‐column nutrients during the year, Chl a was fairly constant, suggesting a regular supply of microalgae‐derived OM to the sea bottom. Based on the composition of lipid biomarkers in sediments, OM sources were classified as mostly marine and with high contributions of labile (microalgae‐derived) OM. Labile OM composition varied from diatoms in the summer to phytoflagellates in the winter and tended to accumulate in areas protected by physical disturbances in one of the bays. Microbial biomass followed this trend and was 160% higher in protected than in exposed areas. This study suggests that the coupling between labile OM and benthic microbial biomass occurs primarily in protected areas, irrespective of the time of the year. Since meio‐ and macrofaunal assemblages depend upon secondary microbial production within the sediments, this coupling may have an important role for the benthic food‐web.     

丝绸之路经济带中国段旅游资源与旅游发展耦合研究

在对丝绸之路经济带中国段各省份旅游资源与旅游发展综合评价的基础上,运用耦合协调模型计算旅游资源与旅游发展的耦合度与协调度,运用障碍因子模型确定影响旅游发展的旅游资源障碍因子。结果显示：各省份旅游资源与旅游发展的耦合程度普遍较高,主要为高度耦合和中度耦合2种类型;协调程度包含良好协调、中度协调、勉强协调和失调4种类型,以中度协调和勉强协调为主;旅游资源和旅游发展的耦合度与协调度还没有完全在空间上达到良性共振。除陕西外,其他各省资源条件都是主要障碍因素,因此,要提高旅游发展水平,首先需要加大对各省份旅游资源整合力度,提高旅游资源的质量;出现频率最高的障碍因子分别是资源条件（C₁）、年平均气温（C₂）、年平均降水量（C₃）、空气质量（C₇）、GDP（C₁₀）。     

Coupled HM analysis using zero‐thickness interface elements with double nodes—Part II: Verification and application

In a companion Part I of this paper (Int. J. Numer. Anal. Meth. Geomech. 2008; DOI: 10.1002/nag.735 ), a coupled hydro‐mechanical (HM) formulation for geomaterials with discontinuities based on the finite element method (FEM) with double‐node, zero‐thickness interface elements was developed and presented. This Part II paper includes the numerical solution of basic practical problems using both the staggered and the fully coupled approaches. A first group of simulations, based on the classical consolidation problem with an added vertical discontinuity, is used to compare both the approaches in terms of accuracy and convergence. The monolithic or fully coupled scheme is also used in an application example studying the influence of a horizontal joint in the performance of a reservoir subject to fluid extraction. Results include a comparison with other numerical solutions from the literature and a sensitivity analysis of the mechanical parameters of the discontinuity. Some simulations are also run using both a full non‐symmetric and a simplified symmetric Jacobian matrix. On top of verifying the model developed and its capability to reflect the conductivity changes of the interface with aperture changes, the results presented also lead to interesting observations of the numerical performance of the methods implemented. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于CMIP5模拟的中国区域陆气耦合强度评估及未来情景预估

基于第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)11个模式历史情景的模拟结果计算得到了中国区域夏季的陆气耦合强度并进行集合平均,结果表明,位于半干旱区的华北和内蒙古地区陆气耦合强度相对较强,西部干旱区的陆气耦合强度相对较弱,位于湿润区的中国东北地区东部、长江中下游和西南地区陆气耦合强度最弱。利用上述模式集合平均结果与由NCEP再分析资料和欧洲中心的中期气象预报40年再分析资料(ERA40)计算得到的陆气耦合强度相比较,结果显示这些模式的集合平均与再分析资料NCEP和ERA40的计算结果有较好的一致性。利用历史情景模拟和不同的典型排放路径(RCP),即低排放情景RCP2.6、中排放情景RCP4.5和高排放情景RCP8.5下的模拟结果预估陆气耦合强度未来变化。结果显示:与历史情景相比较,位于湿润区的中国南方地区蒸散发的主要控制因子是温度,在3种排放情景下随着温度上升引起蒸散发增加所导致陆气耦合强度升高;位于青藏高原以及半干旱区的内蒙古大部分地区蒸散发在未来的年际变化幅度减弱导致陆气耦合指数降低;位于西北干旱区陆气耦合强度在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景上升,然而在RCP8.5情景下陆气耦合强度下降,其原因是在高排放情景下,水汽平流输送明显增强,局地蒸散发异常对空气湿度变化的贡献减弱,导致了陆气耦合强度降低。未来预估结果在中国南方可信度相对较高,从全国来看,在RCP4.5情景下可信度相对较高。