Typhoon Vortex Self-Organization in a Baroclinic Environment

Self-organization of typhoon vortex in a baroclinic environment is studied based on eight numerical experiments with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research （PSU/NCAR） Mesoscale Model （MM5）. The results show that, when there are only two 400-km-away mesoscale axisymmetric vortices with a radius of 500 km in the initial field, the two vortices move away from each other during co-rotating till the distance between them greater than a critical distance named co-rotating critical distance. Then, they stop co-rotating. The situation is changed when a small vortex with a radius of 80 kin is introduced in between the two vortices in the initial field, with the two initially separated vortices approaching each other during their co-rotation, and finally self-organizing into a typhoon-like vortex consisting of an inner core and spiral bands. This result supports both Zhou Xiuji＇s view in 1994 and the studies in the barotropic framework concerning the interactions between the same and different scales of vortices. Six other experiments are carried out to study the effects of the initial vortex parameters, including the initial position of the small-scale vortex, the distance and intensity of the initially axisymmetric binary mesoscale vortices. It is found that the distance between the initial axisymmetrie mesoscale vortices is the most important parameter that influences the self-organizing process of the final typhoon-like vortex. This conclusion is similar to that obtained from barotropical model experiments.     

On the Association between Spring Arctic Sea Ice Concentration and Chinese Summer Rainfall： A Further Study

In our previous study,a statistical linkage between the spring Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)and the succeeding Chinese summer rainfall during the period 1968–2005 was identified.This linkage is demonstrated by the leading singular value decomposition(SVD)that accounts for 19%of the co-variance.Both spring SIC and Chinese summer rainfall exhibit a coherent interannual variability and two apparent interdecadal variations that occurred in the late 1970s and the early 1990s.The combined impacts of both spri...     

SIMULATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER EFFECTS ON A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CAUSED BY A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE YELLOW RIVER MIDSTREAM AREA

A heavy rainfall event caused by a mesoscale convective system (MCS), which occurred over the Yellow River midstream area during 7–9 July 2016, was analyzed using observational, high-resolution satellite, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, and numerical simulation data. This heavy rainfall event was caused by one mesoscale convective complex (MCC) and five MCSs successively. The MCC rainstorm occurred when southwesterly winds strengthened into a jet. The MCS rainstorms occurred when low-level wind fields weakened, but their easterly components in the lower and boundary layers increased continuously. Numerical analysis revealed that there were obvious differences between the MCC and MCS rainstorms, including their three-dimensional airflow structure, disturbances in wind fields and vapor distributions, and characteristics of energy conversion and propagation. Formation of the MCC was related to southerly conveyed water vapor and energy to the north, with obvious water vapor exchange between the free atmosphere and the boundary layer. Continuous regeneration and development of the MCSs mainly relied on maintenance of an upward extension of a positive water vapor disturbance. The MCC rainstorm was triggered by large range of convergent ascending motion caused by a southerly jet, and easterly disturbance within the boundary layer. While a southerly fluctuation and easterly disturbance in the boundary layer were important triggers of the MCS rainstorms. Maintenance and development of the MCC and MCSs were linked to secondary circulation, resulting from convergence of Ekman non-equilibrium flow in the boundary layer. Both intensity and motion of the convergence centers in MCC and MCS cases were different. Clearly, sub-synoptic scale systems in the middle troposphere played a leading role in determining precipitation distribution during this event. Although mesoscale systems triggered by the sub-synoptic scale system induced the heavy rainfall, small-scale disturbances within the boundary layer determined its intensity and location.     

“00.7”北京特大暴雨模拟中气象资料同化作用的评估

针对2000年7月4～5日北京地区的一次特大暴雨过程(24 h降水量达240 mm),文中利用MM5/WRF三维变分系统和MM5非静力模式,对此次特大暴雨过程中的各种气象监测资料(地基GPS大气柱水汽含量、常规探空、高空测风、地面常规观测和地面自动气象站)的同化作用通过观测系统数值试验进行了评估.结果表明与传统的客观分析方案相比较,MM5/WRF三维变分同化系统可直接引入非常规地基GPS大气柱水汽含量监测资料,提供更好的大气初始分析场.在三维变分同化方案下,各种大气监测资料均对改进此次特大暴雨模拟有不同程度的贡献,其中,常规探空和高空测风监测资料对改进预报结果的影响最大,地面常规观测和地面自动气象站观测资料作用次之,地基GPS大气柱水汽含量资料在与其他大气监测资料相互优势互补后,可很好地改善模式大气的分析质量,通过三维变分同化技术在区域数值天气预报模式初始场中引入地基GPS大气水汽监测网资料,使此次强降水个例的6 h和24 h测站降水预报的TS评分值在1,5,10和20 mm预报检验阈值下分别提高了1%～8%.研究结果对利用三维变分数值系统,评估气象监测网资料在改进高影响天气事件预报中的作用有借鉴意义.     

Roles of Mesoscale Terrain and Latent Heat Release in Typhoon Precipitation： A Numerical Case Study

The mesoscale orographic effects on typhoon Aere＇s precipitation are simulated using an Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model （AREM） version 3.0. In particular, the effects of the latent heat release are studied by two comparable experiments： with and without condensational heating. The results show that the typhoon rainfall is tripled by the southeastern China mesoscale terrain, and the condensational heating is responsible for at least half of the increase. One role of the latent heat release is to warm the atmosphere, leading to a depression of the surface pressure, which then causes a larger pressure difference in the zonal direction. This pressure gradient guides the water vapour to flow into the foothills, which in turn amplifies the water vapour flux divergence amplified, causing the typhoon rainfall to increase eventually. The other role of the latent heat release is to make the convection more organized, resulting in a relatively smaller rain area and stronger precipitation.     

2008年“7.02”滇中大暴雨的成因诊断与数值模拟

利用常规观测、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、云图、多普勒雷达回波和WRF模式对2008年7月2日滇中大暴雨进行成因诊断和数值模拟。结果表明:对流层高层的干侵入和中低层冷、暖平流交汇诱发副热带高压和滇缅高压间辐合低涡迅猛发展成强中尺度对流辐合体,加上中低层来自孟加拉湾的丰富水汽输送和中低层强水汽辐合共同引发此次大暴雨。过程中,垂直螺旋度贡献主要在中层;干位涡呈现出对流层顶强正高位涡,300 hPa以下为次正高位涡,两者之间为负区的柱状分布特征,次正高位涡强中心有向下层延伸特征。WRF较好地模拟了整个大暴雨过程中强降水主体时段和大暴雨落区特点,最大对流有效位能变化趋势对强降水有较好预示作用,模拟方案在积分30小时内效果较好。     

Estimation of turbulent sensible heat and momentum fluxes over a heterogeneous urban area using a large aperture scintillometer

The accurate determination of surface-layer turbulent fluxes over urban areas is critical to understanding urban boundary layer (UBL) evolution. In this study, a remote-sensing technique using a large aperture scintillometer (LAS) was investigated to estimate surface-layer turbulent fluxes over a highly heterogeneous urban area. The LAS system, with an optical path length of 2.1 km, was deployed in an urban area characterized by a complicated land-use mix (residential houses, water body, bare ground, etc.). The turbulent sensible heat (Q H) and momentum fluxes (τ) were estimated from the scintillation measurements obtained from the LAS system during the cold season. Three-dimensional LAS footprint modeling was introduced to identify the source areas ("footprint") of the estimated turbulent fluxes. The analysis results showed that the LAS-derived turbulent fluxes for the highly heterogeneous urban area revealed reasonable temporal variation during daytime on clear days, in comparison to the land-surface process-resolving numerical modeling. A series of sensitivity tests indicated that the overall uncertainty in the LAS-derived daytime Q H was within 20%-30% in terms of the influence of input parameters and the non-dimensional similarity function for the temperature structure function parameter, while the estimation errors in τ were less sensitive to the factors of influence, except aerodynamic roughness length. The 3D LAS footprint modeling characterized the source areas of the LAS-derived turbulent fluxes in the heterogeneous urban area, revealing that the representative spatial scales of the LAS system deployed with the 2.1 km optical path distance ranged from 0.2 to 2 km2 (a "micro-α scale"), depending on local meteorological conditions.     

Progress in Climate Prediction and Weather Forecast Operations in China

The current status of weather forecasting and climate prediction, and the main progress China has made in recent years, are summarized in this paper. The characteristics and requirements of modern weather forecast operations are described briefly, and the significance of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) for future development is emphasized. The objectives and critical tasks for seamless short-term climate prediction that covers the extended-range (15-30 days), monthly, seasonal, annual, interannual and interdecadal timescales, are proposed.     

ENSO事件对云南及临近地区春末初夏降水的影响

本文采用合成及相关分析的方法,应用55年中国降水资料、美国NOAA海表温度资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了ENSO事件对我国云南及其邻近地区春末初夏降水的影响及物理机理.研究结果表明:(1)在El Ni(n)o (La Ni(n)a)年,云南大部分地区4～5月降水偏少(多),东部地区相关信号尤其明显;(2)...     

南海季风爆发的年代际转折与东亚副热带夏季降水的关系

利用1979—2016年NCEP再分析资料, 分析了南海季风爆发的年代际转折与东亚副热带夏季降水的关系。结果表明:南海夏季风爆发时间在1993/1994年出现年代际转变, 1979—1993年爆发时间相对偏晚, 夏季华南降水偏少, 长江中下游至日本南部降水偏多; 1994—2016年爆发时间偏早, 夏季华南降水偏多, 长江中下游到日本南部降水偏少。南海季风爆发时间年代际转折与夏季东亚副热带降水关系可能受到菲律宾越赤道气流强度的调控, 季风爆发时间与菲律宾越赤道气流有显著正相关, 且均在1993/1994年间存在年代际转变。在1994—2016(1979—1993)年南海夏季风爆发偏早(晚), 菲律宾越赤道气流偏弱(强), 澳大利亚北部有偏北(南)风异常, 将暖池的热量往赤道输送, 使得赤道对流增强(减弱), 产生异常上升(下沉)运动汇入Hadley环流上升支, 增强(减弱)的Hadley环流导致下沉主体偏北(南), 促使副高脊线偏北(南), 从西北太平洋(孟加拉湾)往华南地区(江淮到日本南部)输送水汽增强, 所以华南(江淮到日本南部)夏季降水偏多。