太阳系外行星动力演化研究

本文简要地介绍了目前太阳系外行星系统动力演化的研究现状。我们用数值模拟方法和并从分析的角度研究了GJ 876和HD 82 943。通过分析不同的共面和非共面构型 ,我们发现所有的稳定轨道都和2 :1共振有关 ,此外我们还发现在这两个系统内存在近星点共振—对应了两个行星的近星点经度之差在1 80 0或者 0 0附近秤动。这两种机制对维持行星系统的稳定性起了重要作用。     

带胸墙斜坡堤越浪量的数值试验研究

采用黏性流体的连续性方程、雷诺时均N-S方程作为基本控制方程,RNG k-ε模型模拟湍流效应,VOF方法捕捉流体自由表面,结合主动吸收式造波理论,借助FLUENT软件建立二维不规则波数值水槽。在验证数值水槽造波性能的基础上,数值模拟带胸墙斜坡堤的越浪,并将数值计算的平均越浪量与已有物模试验值进行对比,两者趋势一致,吻合良好;表明该数值水槽模拟不规则波作用带胸墙斜坡堤越浪的准确性。针对带胸墙斜坡堤,藉此分析了堤顶超高、斜坡坡比、坡肩宽度及坡肩高度对其平均越浪量影响的规律性,研究成果对斜坡堤工程设计具有重要的参考意义。     

海道测量长期平均海面传递的异步效应计算与分析

利用异步效应的数学表达式,分析了异步效应与长期平均海面传递误差的关系.利用中国海区典型验潮站实测数据进行了异步效应及长期平均海面传递的数值计算,证实异步效应是影响长期平均海面传递精度的主要因素.     

�������˲��ķ�����ǿ�Ⱥ͹������ܵĶ���׼��

????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????     

湖南地区加权平均温度的影响因素分析及建模

利用湖南地区长沙、怀化、郴州3个探空站连续3 a（2012～2014年）的观测数据,以数值积分法计算的大气加权平均温度（Tm）作为参考值,分析Tm与地面气温Ts、水汽压es及大气压Ps之间的相关性,并基于最小二乘原理建立湖南地区多因子Tm模型。研究结果表明,Tm与地面温度Ts和水汽压es呈正相关性,与大气压Ps呈负相关;Bevis模型的Tm偏差主要分布在0～4 K之间,存在一定的系统偏差,而基于Ts单因子的Tm模型偏差主要分布在-2~3 K之间;双因子与三因子精度相当,但均优于单因子模型。总体而言,基于地面气温Ts和水汽压es的双因子Tm模型的精度优于基于Ts的单因子模型,更优于Bevis模型,适用于湖南地区的GPS气象研究及业务应用。     

基于局部均值分解和相关向量机的变形预测

基于改进局部均值分解（LMD）及加权核函数相关向量机（RVM）算法,构建多尺度变形预测新方法。利用LMD将变形数据分解成多个具有物理意义的变形分量,并基于遗传算法优化的RVM对每个变形分量分别进行预测。将各变形分量预测结果进行叠加,最终建立多尺度变形预测方法,并应用于大坝变形预测。实验结果表明,改进LMD-RVM方法的多个精度指标均优于BP神经网络方法、RVM方法和改进EMD-RVM方法,证实了新方法的有效性及可靠性。
     

河套地区气温和降水的气候特征分析

文章利用巴彦淖尔市临河、磴口、杭后、五原、前旗5个测站1954—2010年共57年的气象观测资料,对河套地区气温和降水的气候平均值和月分布特征进行了统计分析。并根据统计结果探讨了气候平均值的变化、气候变化趋势,以及引起气候变化的原因。在此基础上,还对河套地区四季开始的时间和每季的长度进行了应用分析。     

Which objective function to calibrate rainfall–runoff models for low-flow index simulations?

Much has been written on the subject of objective functions to calibrate rainfall–runoff models. Many studies focus on the best choice for low-flow simulations or different multi-objective purposes. Only a few studies, however, investigate objective functions to optimize the simulations of low-flow indices that are important for water management. Here, we test different objective functions, from single objective functions with different discharge transformations or using low-flow indices, to combinations of single objective functions, and we evaluate their robustness and sensitivity to the rainfall–runoff model. We find that the Kling and Gupta efficiency (KGE) applied to a transformation of discharge is inadequate to fulfil all assessment criteria, whereas the mean of the KGE applied to the discharge and the KGE applied to the inverse of the discharge is sufficient. The robustness depends on the climate variability rather than the objective function and the results are insensitive to the model.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR C. Perrin     

Collapse risk of controlled rocking steel braced frames with different post‐tensioning and energy dissipation designs

Controlled rocking steel braced frames (CRSBFs) are low‐damage self‐centring lateral force resisting systems. Previous studies have shown that designing the energy dissipation (ED) and post‐tensioning (PT) in CRSBFs using a response modification factor of R=8 can prevent collapse of structures during earthquakes beyond the design level. However, designers have unique control over the hysteretic behaviour of the system, even after the response modification factor is selected. Additionally, recent studies have suggested that CRSBFs could also be designed using R>8 while still satisfying performance limits. This paper examines how the response modification factor and the design of the ED and PT influence the collapse performance of CRSBFs with three and six storeys where collapse occurs because of over‐rotation of the base rocking joint. In addition, the influence of using an additional rocking joint above the base to mitigate higher‐mode forces is evaluated for a 12‐storey frame. A total of 18 different designs are considered for the three buildings using different ED and PT design parameters, including different response modification factors. A suite of 44 ground motions is scaled until at least 50% of the records cause collapse, and fragility curves are generated using the truncated incremental dynamic analysis curves. The results from two different assessment methodologies show that the parameters selected have a marked influence on the collapse performance of a CRSBF. Nevertheless, even CRSBFs designed using R>8 or without supplemental ED can have acceptably low probabilities of collapse, provided that the frame members are designed to remain elastic. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.