用单多卜勒雷达确定中尺度气旋环流中心及最大风速半径

首先给出具有 Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ 模式的中尺度气旋的模拟多卜勒径向速度图,然后利用多卜勒雷达观测的径向速度与实际气流间的几何关系,提出一种确定近似轴对称的中尺度气旋中心及最大风速半径的方法。     

华北和北京的酷暑天气 Ⅱ. 模拟实验和机理分析

利用Ｐｅｎｎ／ＮＣＡＲ 的ＭＭ５ 中尺度模式对１９９９ 年６ 、７ 月华北的两段高温过程进行了模拟研究, 并利用模拟输出量对高温形成的机理进行了一些探讨。结果表明, 在利用了Ｎｕｄｇｉｎｇ 同化以后, 中尺度模式能对整个过程作较长时间的模拟, 对高压的移动过程、强度和维持能较好的复制出来。分析结果表明, 大陆副热带高压中的下沉增温和辐射增温是造成此高温酷暑天气的主要原因。     

松辽盆地三肇地区油田储层裂缝及地应力特征

在大量裂缝发育特征的观察和统计工作基础上,结合油田开发动态和古构造发育史分析等,应用岩芯古地磁定向,差应变和波速各和异性等研究方法,结果认为三肇地区扶杨油层发育的裂缝走向以近东西向为主,多具高倾角,并可构成规模较大的主裂缝,其在油田注水开发中起着不可轻视的作用。分析表明,裂缝发育的密度与砂层的厚度成反比,与构造曲率成正比。区域最大水平主应力为北西西向,近东西向裂缝为油田最有效裂缝组系。     

北部湾6.1,6.2级地震序列的环境应力场

应用Ｐ波初动半周期直接测定环境剪应力值的方法,测定了北部湾６．１,６．２级地震前后中小地震的环境剪应力值τ０,由此分析了北部湾地震过程的环境应力场特征。结果表明,北部湾６．１级地震后平均剪应力值较高,达１８ＭＰａ左右;６．２级地震及两次５级余震后剪应力值下降很快,降至目前的６ＭＰａ左右。在此基础上对北部湾地震活动趋势作了初步分析。     

浅论不同应力状态下坝基层间剪切带弹性力学性质

本文以万家寨水利枢纽坝基Ｓｃｊ０８层间剪切带声波测试资料为依据,论述了不同应力状态下、剪切带弹性力学性质变化过程和机理,其成果对坝基施工过程控制和基础稳定性分析具有一定指导意义。     

1998年11月19日云南宁蒗6.2级地震前地震活动性特征

１９９８ 年１１ 月１９ 日在云南省宁蒗发生了一次 Ｍ６２ 级强烈地震。该次地震前, 震中及邻区地震活动明显增强, 累计频度和应变能释放随时间从线性缓慢增加变为非线性快速增加, 出现孕震空区、多项地震活动参数异常。此外, 地震活动性诸多参数在地震活动处于线性缓慢变化的时间段内, 在空间分布上表现为随机的现象; 在地震活动处于非线性快速变化的时间段内, 这些参数的空间分布表现出向未来震中收缩、集中的明显特征。     

Multiple decision-making criteria in the transport and burial of hazardous and radioactive wastes

We evaluate the application of various statistical measures for the identification of optimal financial strategies in environmental projects that may be burdened by the consequences of low-probability, high-cost events. Our particular application lies in the area of transport and burial of hazardous and radioactive wastes but our approach applies to a wide range of problems where the utility structure is of the form of gains minus losses, and where limited and/or catastrophic failures may be encountered. We utilize four statistical measures, the expected value, variance, volatility and cumulative probability to compare the outcomes of limited and catastrophic spills. The maximum expected monetary value which is frequently used in the environmental and gas and oil industries as the sole criterion for the selection of optimum actions is seen to lead to erroneous decisions and fails to unambiguously differentiate the economic consequences of limited and catastrophic failures in a project. We demonstrate that unwarranted inclusion of catastrophic scenarios into the decision-making analysis can substantially alter the perspective of a project and guide a corporation away from an investment that could be profitable even under a limited liability case. We conclude by providing a decision-making procedure for cases where the probabilities associated with future events and/or the monetary returns are characterized not by sharp estimates but rather are represented by a range of values.     

Dynamic variation of ambient shear stress field before and after three strong earthquakes in Yunnan

IntroductionThecrustaltectonicmovementisacomplicatedevolutionprocesswithtimeandspace.Spatially,themovementofcrustaltectoniciscloselyrelatedtotheinter-movementandinteractionofmulti-leveledcrustalblocksinacertainregionandtheirborderfaults.Temporally,themovementiscloselyrelatedtothatofmulti-leveledcrustalblocksandtimesequencedevelopmentofinteraction.Anearthquakeoccurrenceistheresultofsuddenruptureofcrustmediaundertheactionoftectonicstressfield,isalsoacomplicatedprocessinnercrust.Duetotheobviousi…     

Three dimensional tectonic stress field in North China

IntroductionThecrusttectonicstressfieldisoneofthekeyproblemsofgeodynamics,itsmaincontentsareaprobingintospatialdistributionanddynamicevaluationofcrusttectonicstressfield,thentracingtheevolutionprocessofcrusttectonicmovement,learningcontemporarycrusttectoniceventanditsmechanism,thuspredictingthefuturedevelopmentlawoftectonicmovement.Intheendof1970s,aseriesofpaperswerepublishedattheinternationalconferenceonMagnitudeofDeviatoricStressesintheEarth'SCrustandUppermostMantle.Theygavethebriefoutlin…     

Numerical calculations of tectonic stress field of Chinese mainland and its neighboring regions and their applications to explanation of seismic activity

IntroductionChinesemainlandliesinthesoutheastofEurasianPlateandisclampedbyindian,PacificandPhilippineSeaPlates.Besides,itislocatedatbetweenthetwobigseismicactivebeltsintheworldatthesametime.Differingfromtheshowoftwobigseismicbeltswhichhaveseismiczonaldistributionalongplateboundary,Chinesemainlandanditsperipheralareahaveapeculiarcharacter,expressingseismicallylargestrength,highfrequency,widedistribution,shallowfocus,seriousdamage,multiplestyles,extremelynonuniformspace-timedistributionandsoo…