The temporal hierarchy of shelters: a hierarchical location model for earthquake-shelter planning

The problem of emergency facility location is a critical component in evacuation planning. The emergence of geographic information systems (GIS) has provided a useful operational platform to assist this issue. A previously overlooked facet is the consideration of a hierarchical structure in the placement of emergency shelters. Due to the fact that survivors' needs change over time during post-disaster evacuations, shelters have now been categorized on a temporal scale based on their functions at different evacuation phases. This article proposes a three-level hierarchical location model for optimizing the placement of earthquake shelters by taking into account this temporal variance. The article not only scrutinizes the modeling procedure but also implements the model in a planning area with many real-world details. Based on the optimization results derived from a GIS context, we have found that the quality of the earthquake response procedure is not only dependent on the placement strategy of shelters, but more importantly on the financial constraints imposed on the planning and construction of these shelters. A discussion has been proposed to balance the trade-off between budget planning and evacuation efficiency. As the first attempt to model the hierarchical configuration of emergency shelters with specific focus on evacuees' escalating sheltering demands, this article will be of great significance in helping policy makers consider both the spatial and financial aspects of the strategic placement of emergency shelters.     

The smoothness of HASM

To smooth noises inherent in uniformly sampled dataset, the smoothness of high accuracy surface modeling (HASM) was explored, and a smoothing method of HASM (HASM-SM) was developed based on a penalized least squares method. The optimal smoothing parameter of HASM-SM was automatically obtained by means of the generalized cross-validation (GCV) method. For an efficient smoothing computation, discrete cosine transform was employed to solve the system of HASM-SM and to estimate the minimum GCV score, simultaneously. Two examples including a numerical test and a real-world example were employed to compare the smoothing ability of HASM-SM with that of GCV thin plate smoothing spline (TPS) and kriging. The numerical test indicated that the minimum GCV HASM-SM is averagely more accurate than TPS and kriging for noisy surface smoothing. The real-world example of smoothing a lidar-derived Digital Elevation Model (DEM) showed that HASM-SM has an obvious smoothing effect, which is on a par with TPS. In conclusion, HASM-SM provides an efficient tool for filtering noises in grid-based surfaces like remote sensing–derived images and DEMs.     

The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.     

Sediment fingerprinting in fluvial systems： review of tracers,sediment sources and mixing models

Suspended sediments in fluvial systems originate from a myriad of diffuse and point sources, with the relative contribution from each source varying over time and space. The process of sediment fingerprinting focuses on developing methods that enable discrete sediment sources to be identified from a composite sample of suspended material. This review identifies existing methodological steps for sediment fingerprinting including fluvial and source sampling, and critically compares biogeochemical and physical tracers used in fingerprinting studies. Implications of applying different mixing models to the same source data are explored using data from 41 catchments across Europe, Africa, Australia, Asia, and North and South America. The application of seven commonly used mixing models to two case studies from the US （North Fork Broad River watershed） and France （Bldone watershed） with local and global （genetic algorithm） optimization methods identified all outputs remained in the acceptable range of error defined by the original authors. We propose future sediment fingerprinting studies use models that combine the best explanatory parameters provided by the modified Collins （using correction factors） and Hughes （relying on iterations involving all data, and not only their mean values） models with optimization using genetic algorithms to best predict the relative contribution of sediment sources to fluvial systems.     

Understanding and managing the morphology of branches incising into sand-clay deposits in the Dutch Rhine Delta

In the Rhine-Meuse delta in the south-western part of the Netherlands,the morphology of the river branches is highly dependent on the erodibility of the subsoil.Erosion processes that were initiated after closure of the Haringvliet estuary branch by a dam(in 1970),caused a strong incision of several connecting branches.Due to the geological evolution of this area the lithology of the subsoil shows large variations in highly erodible sand and poorly erodible peat and clay layers.This study shows how the geological information can be used to create 3D maps of the erodibility of the sub-soil, and how this information can be used to schematize the sub-soil in computational models for morphological simulations.Local incisement of sand patches between areas with poorly erodible bed causes deep scour holes,hence increasing the risk on river-bank instability(flow slides) and damage to constructions such as groynes,quays,tunnels, and pipelines.Various types of mathematical models,ranging from 1D(SOBEK) to quasi-3D(Delft3D) have been applied to study the future development of the river bed and possible management options.The results of these approaches demonstrate that models require inclusion of a layer-bookkeeping approach for sub-soil schematization, non-uniform sediment fractions(sand-mud),tidal and river-discharge boundary conditions,and capacity-reduction transport modeling.For risk-reducing river management it has been shown how the development of the river bed can be addressed on a large scale and small scale.For instance,the use of sediment feeding and fixation of bed can be proposed for large-scale management,while monitoring and interventions at initiation of erosion can be proposed as response to small-scale developments that exceed predefined intervention levels.     

有限元-无限元耦合法在复杂金属矿体电阻率/极化率正演模拟中的应用——以庐枞盆地泥河铁矿床为例

金属矿电法勘探由于受限于探测深度和复杂矿体形态的解释,在深部矿产资源勘探中难受重视.安徽庐江泥河铁矿床是长江中下游成矿带中最主要的矿床类型之一,矿区复杂的地质结构和矿体形态以及矿体的大深度赋存状态给地球物理勘探特别是电法勘探带来了很大的挑战.为了研究电阻率/极化率法在大深度复杂金属矿体探测中的应用效果,本文以泥河铁矿某勘探剖面为例,在实际矿区的地质模型基础上通过简化建立了相应的地球物理模型,采用偶极-偶极装置及二极装置,对矿区进行直流电阻率/极化率数值模拟.提出采用有限元-无限元耦合法以解决传统有限元法截断边界所引起的问题.理论和计算结果表明:有限元-无限元耦合法相比传统有限元法,能显著提高计算的效率和精度.偶极-偶极装置的视电阻率断面图较二极装置能更好的区分不同地层及磁铁矿异常,而根据铁矿高极化特性,探测深度相对较大的二极装置的视极化率断面图能够更好的反映出异常体位置及范围.     

偏移速度分析与速度反演方法评述

本文阐述了各向同性介质中纵波偏移速度建模中的速度分析方法原理及其优缺点,包括常规速度分析、偏移速度分析、层析偏移速度分析以及全波形反演。其中着重阐述了深度域速度建模中的速度分析方法原理及其在实用中的优缺点。最后对深度域偏移速度分析方法进行了展望。     

地震尺度下碳酸盐岩储层的岩石物理建模方法(英文)

碳酸盐岩油藏的强非均质性以及孔隙结构的复杂性,使得作为连接油藏参数与地震参数重要桥梁的岩石物理模型,以及作为油藏预测和定量表征最有效工具的流体替换成为岩石物理建模的难点与重点。在碳酸盐岩储层复杂孔隙结构与地震尺度下碳酸盐岩储层非均质性分析基础上,研究采用岩石网格化方法,将地震尺度下非均质碳酸盐岩储层岩石划分为具有独立岩石参数的均质岩石子体,根据岩石孔隙成因与结构特征采用不同岩石物理模型分步计算岩石子块干岩石弹性模量,并根据不同孔隙连通性进行流体替换,计算饱和不同流体岩石弹性模量。基于计算的岩石子块弹性模量,采用Hashin-Shtrikman-Walpole弹性边界计算理论方法实现地震尺度下碳酸盐岩储层弹性参数计算。通过对含有不同类型孔隙组合碳酸盐岩储层模型的弹性模量进行计算与分析,明确不同孔隙对岩石弹性参数的影响特征,模拟分析结果与实际资料认识一致。     

结合边界条件的截断高阶隐式有限差分方法(英文)

有限差分方法广泛应用于求解许多科技领域所涉及的偏微分方程,高阶显式有限差分方法通常用来提高求解精度,已经提出的高阶隐式有限差分方法和截断高阶显式有限差分方法可用来进一步提高模拟精度而不增加计算量。本文首先计算了针对常规网格上的一阶导数和二阶导数、交错网格上的一阶导数的有限差分系数,发现高阶隐式有限差分系数中存在一些小的系数。频散分析结果表明:忽略这些小的差分系数能够近似维持有限差分的精度,但是显著减小了计算量。然后,引入镜像对称边界条件来提高隐式有限差分方法的精度和稳定性,采用混合吸收边界条件来减小来自模型边界所不需要的反射。最后,给出了针对均匀和非均匀介质模型的弹性波模拟例子,表明了本文方法的优点。