山西数字台网震级测定方法研究

震级是表示地震本身大小的一个量度,也是地震的基本参数之一。利用山西数字测震台网2009-2016年ML≥3.5以上宽频带数字地震资料,对近震震级ML、面波震级MS、宽频带面波震级Ms(BB)和矩震级Mw的震级测定方法进行讨论研究和对比,认为新震级标度能发挥宽频带数字地震资料的优越性,有利于资料的交换利用及对外发布。     

乌兰浩特地震台与阿尔山火山地震观测站面波震级偏差分析

为了提高乌兰浩特地震台、阿尔山火山地震观测站的震级精度,基于面波震级公式和残差统计方法,分别计算乌兰浩特台、阿尔山火山地震观测站与中国地震台网中心测定的面波震级之间的偏差,分析产生震级偏差的影响因素。结果表明：乌兰浩特台、阿尔山火山地震观测站测定的面波震级与中国地震台网发布震级的偏差平均值分别为0.19、0.17;震级偏差总体呈现随震级的增加而先增大后减少的趋势;阿尔山火山地震观测站震级偏差随震中距的增大而增大,而乌兰浩特台则先增大后减少。     

爆炸当量估算的初步研究

爆炸当量是评估爆炸能量的重要参数,快速估算爆炸当量对于有效开展应急救援工作至关重要。收集攀枝花铁矿爆破、宁夏煤矿爆破、河南汝阳钼矿爆破等矿山爆破资料,得到爆破的地方性震级M_L与爆炸当量Y之间的经验关系,并据此估算2019年7月19日河南省三门峡市气化厂爆炸事故的爆炸当量为16 t左右。     

In-situ stress state in the Linxing region,eastern Ordos Basin,China: Implications for unconventional gas exploration and production

The Carboniferous and Permian sedimentary rocks (mainly the Shanxi and Taiyuan formations) in the Linxing region, eastern Ordos Basin, China, host a significant volume of unconventional gas resources (coalbed methane, shale gas and tight sandstone gas). Currently, the in-situ stress state is poorly understood but knowledge of this is extremely important for a range of applications, such as gas exploration and production, fracture stimulation and wellbore stability. The maximum horizontal stress (S_Hmax), minimum horizontal stress (S_hmin) and vertical stress (S_v) magnitudes, and the S_Hmax orientation in the Linxing region were systematically analyzed for the first time in the present study, which can provide a reference for subsequent numerical simulation and hydraulic fracturing design. Based on borehole breakouts and drilling-induced tensile fractures interpreted from borehole imaging logs, the S_Hmax orientation rotates from ∼NEE-SWW-trending in the southern part to ∼ NWW-SEE-trending in the northern part of the Linxing region. Both conventional logs and extended leak-off tests were used for stress magnitude determination. The results revealed three types of in-situ stress fields (S_v > S_Hmax > S_hmin, S_Hmax > S_v > S_hmin and S_Hmax > S_v ≈ S_hmin), and a dominant strike-slip stress regime (S_Hmax > S_v ≥ S_hmin) was found for the entire well section in the target Shanxi Formation and Taiyuan Formation in the Linxing region. In addition, differential stress increased with depth in the Linxing region, which indicates that wellbore instability might be a potentially significant problem when drilling wells that are vertical or ∼ N-S-trending.     

Population structure of the sicklefin lemon shark Negaprion acutidens within the Curieuse Marine National Park,Seychelles

This study produced the first data on population parameters for sicklefin lemon shark Negaprion acutidens at the granitic Seychelles Islands, adding to a limited catalogue of species information. Juveniles at a site in the Curieuse Marine National Park were tagged over two periods, in 2014–2015 and 2015–2016, with measurements of length (precaudal, fork and total) and weight, sex, and state of the umbilical opening recorded. Recapture data were used to calculate growth rates and population size. Mean annual growth rate was 5.40 cm y^–1. A mean size at birth of 62.5 cm TL is in line with previous assessments of the species. Population-size estimates were similar for the two sampling periods (comprising 311 and 255 individuals) and higher than anticipated. Movements to outside the lagoon were recorded for early ages, and this, combined with weight loss and a reduction in condition factor as displayed in several individuals, suggests that the study area alone could not support the large number of sharks pupped yearly.     

The Effect of Higher Warming on Vegetation Indices and Biomass Production is Dampened by Greater Drying in an Alpine Meadow on the Northern Tibetan Plateau

In order to understand whether or not the response of vegetation indices and biomass production to warming varies with warming magnitude, an experiment of field warming at two magnitudes was conducted in an alpine meadow on the northern Tibetan Plateau beginning in late June, 2013. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) and soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) data were obtained using a Tetracam Agricultural Digital Camera in 2013-2014. The gross primary production (GPP) and aboveground plant biomass (AGB) were modeled using the surface measured NDVI and climatic data during the growing seasons (i.e. June-September) in 2013-2014. Both low and high warming significantly increased air temperature by 1.54 and 4.00°C, respectively, and significantly increased vapor pressure deficit by 0.13 and 0.31 kPa, respectively, in 2013-2014. There were no significant differences of GNDVI, AGB and ANPP among the three warming treatments. The high warming significantly reduced average NDVI by 23.3% (-0.06), while the low warming did not affect average NDVI. The low and high warming significantly decreased average SAVI by 19.0% (-0.04) and 27.4% (-0.05), respectively, and average GPP by 24.2% (i.e. 0.21 g C m^-2 d^-1) and 44.0% (i.e. 0.39 g C m^-2 d^-1), respectively. However, the differences of the average NDVI, SAVI, and GPP between low and high warming were negligible. Our findings suggest that a greater drying may dampen the effect of a higher warming on vegetation indices and biomass production in alpine meadow on the northern Tibetan Plateau.     

边坡稳定分析的神经网络改进模糊点估计法

边坡稳定性分析中,模糊点估计法能同时考虑模糊不确定性和随机不确定性因素。针对传统模糊点估计法计算工作量大的缺点,提出一种神经网络改进模糊点估计法。利用拉丁超立方抽样法和径向基函数神经网络（RBF）建立边坡安全系数的预测模型;对黏聚力和内摩擦角等模糊随机变量取λ截集,并在各截集水平对参数进行组合;利用建立的预测模型对各参数组合的安全系数进行预测;最后由统计矩点估计法计算边坡的可靠度指标。实例分析表明：改进模糊点估计法使用方便、结果可靠,且能通过增加λ截集水平的数目来提高计算精度。对于含有2～4个模糊随机变量的边坡,采用改进模糊点估计法计算可靠度时λ截集水平的数目可近似取25。     

交城断裂带北段最大潜在地震发震概率评估1

基于太原市目标区交城断裂带的定量研究,特别是对活动断裂上的古地震资料进行的系统、详细的分析与总结,建立了反映该断裂地震地质特点和运动学属性的复发模式和概率模型.引入震级-地表破裂长度、震级-震源破裂长度、震级-断层破裂面积以及震级-地震矩的经验关系进行震级估计,最后进行综合评估以确定交城断裂带北段潜在地震的最大震级.复发模式的建立兼顾了泊松和准周期两种模式,利用专家意见法组合相应的Poisson模型和BPT模型,计算活动断裂最大潜在地震的复发概率.结果表明,交城断裂带北段潜在地震最大震级为Ms7.2级,而未来50a、100a、200a发生Ms7.2级地震的概率分别为2.1％、4.0％和7.9％.     

中亚地震目录震级转换及其完整性分析

为编制能够应用于地震危险性分析的中亚地区统一震级标度为矩震级的地震目录,从国际地震中心（ISC）下载得到该地区1907-2012年的地震数据,该数据包含众多机构不同震级标度的地震记录.以MW,GCMT为参考机构震级标度,并用最小二乘法拟合了其他机构震级标度与MW,GCMT之间的转换关系.在挑选某次地震事件的唯一震级记录时,以对应转换关系的相关系数大且剩余标准差小为准则进行筛选.对于少量没有震级转换关系或者拟合优度过差的地震记录,使用间接转换关系或者全球转换关系予以补充转换.震级转换后,用时空窗法删除前余震,并考虑构造环境和地震活动水平的空间差异性将研究区划分成5个子区域.采用地震记录时间累积曲线法、最大曲率法（MAXC）和拟合优度检验法（GFT）综合分析各个分区的最小完整震级（MC）,并在此基础上用极大似然法拟合相应的地震活动性参数.结果表明,每种完整性分析方法各具一定的优缺点,但采用综合分析的方法能够得出最佳的MC.地震记录时间累积曲线法能分析出高质量地震目录的起始时间,以作为后两种方法的基础,但容易受到地震活动水平随时间波动的影响.由于研究区目录质量较差,最大曲率法误差过大以至于只能作为其他方法的补充,拟合优度检验法的GFT参数也普遍只能达到80％左右.GFT最大值点可能并不对应MC,但是MC通常都在GFT极大值点取得.5个分区1964-2012年的MC普遍在Mw4.8左右,b值在1.136-1.514之间波动.     

Epicenter and magnitude of large earthquake determined from high-rate GPS observations: A case study of the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

For earthquake and tsunami early warning and emergency response,the earthquake epicenter and magnitude should be determined rapidly and correctly.Using high-rate GPS observations,we can readily obtain precise and high resolution displacement time series and the seismic waveforms during the earthquake.In this paper,a new algorithm is proposed for estimating the earthquake epicenter and magnitude with the seismic waveforms derived from high-rate GPS data during the earthquake.A case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is conducted from 1 Hz GPS data and the epicenter and magnitude are determined.Compared with the results issued by the China Seismological Bureau,the estimation error of the epicenter and the magnitude is about 12 km and 0.1 magnitude unit,respectively.It has shown that high-rate GPS could be a new tool feasible for estimating the earthquake epicenter and magnitude,independent of or combined with seismometers.