Palaeotemperature reconstructions of the European permafrost zone during marine oxygen isotope Stage 3 compared with climate model results

A palaeotemperature reconstruction based on periglacial phenomena in Europe north of approximately 51 °N, is compared with high‐resolution regional climate model simulations of the marine oxygen isotope Stage 3 (Stage 3) palaeoclimate. The experiments represent Stage 3 warm (interstadial), Stage 3 cold (stadial) and Last Glacial Maximum climatic conditions. The palaeotemperature reconstruction deviates considerably for the Stage 3 cold climate experiments, with mismatches up to 11 °C for the mean annual air temperature and up to 15 °C for the winter temperature. However, in this reconstruction various factors linking climate and permafrost have not been taken into account. In particular a relatively thin snow cover and high climatic variability of the glacial climate could have influenced temperature limits for ice‐wedge growth. Based on modelling the 0 °C mean annual ground temperature proves to be an appropriate upper temperature limit. Using this limit, mismatches with the Stage 3 cold climate experiments have been reduced but still remain. We therefore assume that the Stage 3 ice wedges were generated during short (decadal time‐scale) intervals of extreme cold climate, below the mean temperatures indicated by the Stage 3 cold climate model simulations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A THREE-DIMENSIONAL ELASTIC NESTED-GRID MESO-(β-γ)SCALE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL——PARTI:MODEL DESCRIPTION

A three-dimensional elastic nonhydrostatic mesoscale(β-γ)model with nested-grid is presented.It uses a set of fullequations in terrain-following coordinates as its basic dynamic frame,which is solved with a time-splitting algorithmfor acoustic and gravity waves.The model physical parameterization includes a K-theory subgrid eddy mixing for cloudand free atmosphere,a bulk planetary boundary layer parameterization,and three types of sofisticated cloudmicrophysics schemes with double-parameters for hail-bearing clouds,warm clouds and snowing clouds respectively.The model is designed to be used flexibly for simulations of a variety of meso-and small-scale atmospheric processes,and can be improved as a regional and local operational NWP system in future.     

Sensitivity analysis of a deterministic water temperature model to forest canopy and soil temperature in Catamaran Brook (New Brunswick,Canada)

A coupled deterministic hydrological and water temperature model, CEQUEAU, was modified to include soil temperature and crown closure in its calculation of local advective terms in the heat budget. The modified model was than tested to verify its sensitivity to these modifications. An analysis of the heat budget of a small forested catchment in eastern Canada revealed that the advective term related to interflow plays a significant role in the daily water heat budget, providing on average 28% of the local advective budget (which also includes advective heat terms from surface runoff and groundwater) and nearly 14% of the total heat budget (which includes all radiative terms at the water surface, convection and evaporation, as well as the local advective terms). Relative sensitivity indices (RSIs) were used to verify the impact of the newly introduced parameters and variables. Among them, parameters related to the forest cover (crown closure and leaf area index) have a maximum RSI of ?0·6; i.e. a 100% increase in value produces a 60% decrease in the local advective term. Parameters with the greatest influence are the volume of water contributing to interflow and the amplitude of the net radiative flux at the soil surface, which, if doubled, would double the contribution of the local interflow advective term to the heat budget. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the effect of low soil temperatures on transpiration by Scots pine

For ecosystem modelling of the Boreal forest it is important to include processes associated with low soil temperature during spring‐early summer, as these affect the tree water uptake. The COUP model, a physically based SVAT model, was tested with 2 years of soil and snow physical measurements and sap flow measurements in a 70‐year‐old Scots pine stand in the boreal zone of northern Sweden. During the first year the extent and duration of soil frost was manipulated in the field. The model was successful in reproducing the timing of the soil warming after the snowmelt and frost thaw. A delayed soil warming, into the growing season, severely reduced the transpiration. We demonstrated the potential for considerable overestimation of transpiration by the model if the reduction of the trees' capacity to transpire due to low soil temperatures is not taken into account. We also demonstrated that the accumulated effect of aboveground conditions could be included when simulating the relationship between soil temperature and tree water uptake. This improved the estimated transpiration for the control plot and when soil warming was delayed into the growing season. The study illustrates the need of including antecedent conditions on root growth in the model in order to catch these effects on transpiration. The COUP model is a promising tool for predicting transpiration in high‐latitude stands. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

WEKU – a GIS-Supported stochastic model of groundwater residence times in upper aquifers for the supraregional groundwater management

 The supraregional GIS-supported stochastical model, WEKU, for the determination of groundwater residence times in the upper aquifers of large groundwater provinces is presented. Using a two-dimensional analytical model of groundwater flow, groundwater residence times are determined within two extreme cases. In the first case, maximal groundwater residence times are calculated, representing the part of groundwater, that is drained by the main surface water of a groundwater catchment area. In the second case, minimal groundwater residence times for drainage into the nearest surface water are determined. Using explicit distribution functions of the input parameters, mean values as well as potential ranges of variations of the groundwater residence times are derived. The WEKU model has been used for the determination of groundwater residence times throughout Germany. The model results – mean values and deviations of the groundwater velocity and the maximal and minimal groundwater residence times in the upper aquifers – are presented by general maps and discussed in detail. It is shown that the groundwater residence times in the upper aquifer vary regionally, differentiated between less than 1 year and more than 2000 years. Using this information, the time scales can be specified, until measures to remediate polluted groundwater resources may lead to a substantial groundwater quality improvement in the different groundwater provinces of Germany. With respect to its supraregional scale of application, the WEKU model may serve as a useful tool for the supraregional groundwater management on a state, federal or international level. Received: 15 August 1995 · Accepted: 15 October 1995     

2003年6月青岛崂山4级震群序列初步分析

从震群监测、地震影响、地震地质构造、序列特点及性质判定等方面对2003年6月青岛崂山王哥庄发生的4级震群进行了介绍及初步分析。此次地震的活动强度、频次、持续时间均为青岛历史上所罕见。地震时整个青岛市普遍有感，震中区有一定破坏，造成较大的社会影响。     

基于复模态的有限元模型修正算法

针对地下结构地震响应分析中无限地基辐射阻尼问题，引入复模态情况下的具有非简化的堆积阻尼矩阵的阻尼模型，并针对具有集中质量阵的阻尼模型提出了合并与质量有关的阻尼和堆积阻尼的思想，并据此提出了一种修正此类有限元模型的两步法，首先从复模态参数中提取实模态参数，采用基于模态残余力的识别算法修正刚度矩阵，然后根据复模态参数和已得的刚度矩阵来识别阻尼模型中的刚度参与系数和质量阻尼堆积阻尼联合矩阵。     

山西省主要河流流域面雨量预报业务流程

以T213、HLAFS模式、MM5中尺度模式输出的格点资料以及日本降水量格点资料为基础，将影响山西降水的天气动力模型归纳为诊断模型，从中引出多个能够全面反映降水模型特征的综合物理因子；根据各种数值模式输出的降水量预报性能和质量优劣特点，依据数值模式的形势场预报优于要素场预报的现实，构造在不同环流形势背景下，启动不同预报方程的面雨量预报业务流程，有效地遏止了在环流形势调整时预报输出不能快速响应的弱点，提高了点和面雨量预报的准确度。     

几种空气质量预报方法的预报效果对比分析

目前应用于我国各个城市空气质量预报业务的预报方法主要有三种 :数值模式预报、统计预报和综合经验预报。这几种预报方法都有其各自的优势 ,同时也存在一些不足。应用以上方法对天津市市区进行空气质量业务预报 ,通过实测资料与预报结果进行对比分析 ,给出这几种方法在天津市区空气质量预报中的预报效果客观评价。