Debris flows risk analysis and direct loss estimation: the case study of Valtellina di Tirano,Italy

andslide risk analysis is one of the primary studies providing essential instructions to the subsequent risk management process. The quantification of tangible and intangible potential losses is a critical step because it provides essential data upon which judgments can be made and policy can be formulated. This study aims at quantifying direct economic losses from debris flows at a medium scale in the study area in Italian Central Alps. Available hazard maps were the main inputs of this study. These maps were overlaid with information concerning elements at risk and their economic value. Then, a combination of both market and construction values was used to obtain estimates of future economic losses. As a result, two direct economic risk maps were prepared together with risk curves, useful to summarize expected monetary damage against the respective hazard probability. Afterwards, a qualitative risk map derived using a risk matrix officially provided by the set of laws issued by the regional government, was prepared. The results delimit areas of high economic as well as strategic importance which might be affected by debris flows in the future. Aside from limitations and inaccuracies inherently included in risk analysis process, identification of high risk areas allows local authorities to focus their attention on the “hot-spots”, where important consequences may arise and local （large） scale analysis needs to be performed with more precise cost-effectiveness ratio. The risk maps can be also used by the local authorities to increase population’s adaptive capacity in the disaster prevention process.     

基于DRAINMOD的农田地表径流氮素流失动态模拟

为了解水旱农田地表径流氮素流失机理及过程,于2008年6～9月在湖北省漳河灌区开展了田间试验,并利用DRAINMOD模型对其进行模拟。研究结果表明:水田地表径流铵态氮和硝态氮的流失率均高于旱地,水田地表径流以铵态氮为主,而旱地以硝态氮为主。水旱农田地表径流氮素流失模拟值与实测值都非常接近,水田地表径流硝态氮和铵态氮模拟的相对误差分别为8.35%和10.99%,旱地分别为5.45%和14.11%;水田硝态氮和铵态氮模拟的效率系数分别为0.961和0.974,旱地的分别为0.993和0.938,效果都很好。因此,利用DRAINMOD模型进行该地区农田氮素流失动态模拟是可行而有效的。     

Recharge of aquifers by flood events in an arid region

The process of aquifer recharge by flood events in an arid region was investigated as applied to the Hazeva Formation (the Karkom graben, the Wadi Paran watershed, Israel). The hydrological model was established as a complex system, with due regard for groundwater and transmission losses of surface runoff. It was based on a previously outlined hydrogeological model of the Karkom graben and a model of transmission losses in arid watercourses under conditions of data deficiency. Proceeding from calculation of groundwater balances, the contribution of surface runoff as a decisive balance component was confirmed. The main characteristics of aquifer regimes, such as changes in storage volume and groundwater level, as well as lateral flow, were all found to be dependent upon the net extraction rate, i.e. pumpage discounting replenishment by flood events. Analysis and physical interpretation of model parameters enabled assessment of the influence of groundwater extraction on aquifer recharge. This became apparent as increasing absorption capacity and recharge availability of the aquifer as a result of the groundwater abstraction. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“一带一路”沿线地区自然灾害危险性与灾损空间格局研究

灾害危险性和灾害损失是区域灾害风险评估的重要内容。以往研究大多基于国别尺度,无法表征国家内部和经济带沿线的灾害损失特征。本文基于“一带一路”沿线地区的洪涝、干旱、风暴、地震4类主要自然灾害的历史数据,提出灾害数据空间尺度下推方法,构建了基于省级尺度的灾害数据库,从灾害发生频次与灾害损失的角度,探讨了“一带一路”沿线地区主要灾害危险性和人口、经济损失的空间分布特征以及综合灾损高值区的主导灾害。研究表明2003—2018年间,“一带一路”沿线地区灾害发生广泛,各类灾害危险性和损失具有明显的集聚特征：81.4%区域均有灾害发生,洪涝灾害发生范围最广,风暴主要发生在沿海地区,干旱灾害集中在中国北部和泰国等地,地震多分布于地震带沿线;全域人口损失以洪涝（53%）、干旱（26%）为主,经济损失以洪涝（49%）、地震（23%）为主,各地区人口和经济损失因区域内人口和经济基础不同存在空间差异;大部分区域损失由单一灾害主导,仅小部分地区损失受多种灾害共同影响。研究结果提示我们应针对各灾害高危区、灾损高值区及各地区主导灾害制定相适应的防灾减灾措施,为未来“一带一路”的自然灾害风险防范与综合减灾、重大基础设施建设等提供支撑。     

Energy coefficients for a propeller series

The efficiency for a propeller is calculated by energy coefficients. These coefficients are related to four types of losses, i.e. the axial, the rotational, the frictional, and the finite blade number loss, and one gain, i.e. the axial gain. The energy coefficients are derived by use of the potential theory with the propeller modelled as an actuator disk. The efficiency based on the energy coefficients is calculated for a propeller series. The results show a good agreement between the efficiency based on the energy coefficients and the efficiency obtained by a vortex-lattice method.     

地质灾害综合评价指标体系和评价方法研究

利用全国地质灾害调查成果,建立地质灾害综合评价指标体系,构建综合评价模型.指标体系由2类、6个一级指标、12个二级指标、30个三级指标及100个评价因子构成.采用自下而上的评价方法,通过评价因子选取、数据修正、归一化处理、权重确定,建立评价模型.评价结果采用斜率法划分为四级,反映地质灾害发育情况、受灾情况、受威胁情况、相对受灾程度及受威胁程度等.对提高地质灾害监测预警和防灾减灾水平具有重要的意义.     

Application of support vector machine and relevance vector machine to determine evaporative losses in reservoirs

This article employs Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) for prediction of Evaporation Losses (E) in reservoirs. SVM that is firmly based on the theory of statistical learning theory, uses regression technique by introducing ε‐insensitive loss function has been adopted. RVM is based on a Bayesian formulation of a linear model with an appropriate prior that results in a sparse representation. The input of SVM and RVM models are mean air temperature (T) ( °C), average wind speed (WS) (m/sec), sunshine hours (SH)(hrs/day), and mean relative humidity (RH) (%). Equations have been also developed for prediction of E. The developed RVM model gives variance of the predicted E. A comparative study has also been presented between SVM, RVM and ANN models. The results indicate that the developed SVM and RVM can be used as a practical tool for prediction of E. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于宏观经济指标对张家口地区地震灾后经济损失快速评估

利用宏观经济指标—GDP(国内生产总值)结合宏观易损性模型对河北省张家口地区地震灾害损失进行快速评估。本文以实际震例数据为基础,通过宏观易损性分析法分别对震后科考实际影响场进行震后经济损失评估,并与震后实际经济损失进行对比,初步验证该方法在小尺度空间范围内震后经济损失快速评估中的可行性。     

Weathering, mineralogical evolution and soil organic matter along a Holocene soil toposequence developed on carbonate-rich materials

A toposequence of Holocene soils located between 1100–2400 m asl in the Italian Alps served as the basis for the following analyses: the weathering of limestone and dolomite, the calculation of mass balances, understanding the formation of pedogenic Fe and Al, the determination of soil mineral and clay mineral reactions and transformation and the measurement of accumulation and stabilisation mechanisms of soil organic matter. Leaching of carbonates is most intense at the lower elevations, although calcite and dolomite have a higher solubility at low temperatures. The pCO₂ in the soil is higher at lower elevations and weathering is driven mainly by carbonic acids. At higher elevations, organic acids appear to determine the mineral transformations and weathering reactions to a greater extent. This suggests that two very different weathering regimes (carbonic and organic acid weathering) exist along the toposequence. The transformation of mica into vermiculite is the main process in both the clay and fine-earth fraction. Weathering of silicate minerals started even before the carbonates had been completely removed from the soils. The transformation mechanisms of silicate minerals in the A and O horizon at higher elevations was at least as intensive as that at the climatically warmer sites. The neoformation of pedogenetic clays at climatically cooler sites was slightly greater than that at the warmer sites. However, the formation rate of secondary Fe and Al phases was more pronounced at lower elevation, which means that this process seemed to be driven dominantly by carbonic acid (weathering of primary minerals). Soil organic matter (SOM) abundance in the mineral soil is nearly 15 kg/m² at all sites and, surprisingly, no climate-driven effect could be detected. In general, the preservation and stabilisation of SOM was due to poorly crystalline Al and Fe phases and vermiculite, regardless of some variations in the composition of the parent material (varying calcite/dolomite ratio).     

基于生态系统服务的罗源湾围填海方案的经济效益评价

基于可持续发展角度,运用环境经济学理论和方法,建立效益和费用评估模型.按照生态系统服务理论将围填海造成的生态损失货币化,作为经济成本的一部分,参与围填海方案经济效益评价.本文对罗源湾多个围填海方案进行综合评价,并对其进行排序,寻求适宜方案.