Application of linear and nonlinear techniques in river flow forecasting in the Kilombero River basin,Tanzania / Application de techniques linéaires et non-linéaires à la prévision des débits dans le bassin de la Rivière Kilombero,en Tanzanie

Abstract

Modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation process and routing of river flows in the Kilombero River basin and its five sub-catchments within the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania was undertaken using three system (black-box) models—a simple linear model, a linear perturbation model and a linear varying gain factor model—in their linear transfer function forms. A lumped conceptual model—the soil moisture accounting and routing model—was also applied to the sub-catchments and the basin. The HEC-HMS model, which is a distributed model, was applied only to the entire Kilombero River basin. River discharge, rainfall and potential evaporation data were used as inputs to the appropriate models and it was observed that sometimes the system models performed better than complex hydrological models, especially in large catchments, illustrating the usefulness of using simple black-box models in datascarce situations.     

Limiting equilibrium method for slope/drilled shaft system

The use of drilled shafts to stabilize an unstable slope has been a widely accepted practice. There are two basic design and analysis issues involved: one is to determine the global factor of safety of the drilled shafts stabilized slope and the other one is to determine the design earth thrust on the drilled shafts for structural design of the shafts. In this paper, a limiting equilibrium method of slices based solution for calculating global factor of safety (FS) of a slope with the presence of a row of drilled shafts is developed. The arching mechanisms due to the presence of the drilled shafts on slope were taken into account by a load transfer factor. The method for calculating the net force applied to the drilled shaft from the soil mass was also developed. The interrelationships among the drilled shaft location on the slope, the load transfer factor, and the global FS of the slope/shaft system were derived utilizing the developed numerical closed‐form solution. An illustrative example is presented to elucidate the use of the solution in optimizing the location of the drilled shafts on slope to achieve the desired global factor of safety of the slope/shaft system. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

OPserver: interactive online computations of opacities and radiative accelerations

Codes to compute mean opacities and radiative accelerations for arbitrary chemical mixtures using the Opacity Project recently revised data have been restructured in a client–server architecture and transcribed as a subroutine library. This implementation increases efficiency in stellar modelling where element stratification due to diffusion processes is depth dependent, and thus requires repeated fast opacity re-estimates. Three user modes are provided to fit different computing environments, namely, a web browser, a local workstation and a distributed grid.     

O i line emission in cool stars: calculations using partial redistribution

Radiative transfer calculations have been performed for five cool stars: α Tau, β Gem, Procyon, ε Eri and the Sun, for the purpose of investigating the behaviour of the O  i emission over a wide range of stellar types, and its dependence on coherent photon scattering. These stars span a range of spectral types from F5 iv – v to K5 iii and surface gravities  1.25 < log  g * < 4.75  . Particular attention has been paid to the calculation of the flux in the resonance triplet around 1305 Å which is pumped by H Lyβ, including the effects of partial redistribution (PRD) and cross-redistribution of photons. These are the first calculations for the resonance triplet in giant stars using a full PRD treatment. Calculations of the predominantly collisionally excited intersystem doublet at 1355, 1358 Å are included, and it is found that the ratio of these fluxes shows the effects of opacity. The flux in the forbidden line at 1641 Å is calculated for the giant stars and the effects of coherent scattering on this line are investigated. The discrepancy between the calculated and observed fluxes in the O  i lines is used to infer the inadequacy of single-component chromospheric models.     

Further discussion on the intercomparison of the trace metal concentrations and particle size of fluvial sediment recovered from two centrifuge systems

A single large volume water sample taken at the mouth of the Upper Rhone River on Lake Geneva was processed directly in parallel through two continuous flow centrifuges, a Westphalia and an Alfa-Laval. Sediment was recovered from the Westphalia, and separately from the bowl and brass core of the Alfa-Laval. The three sediment samples were analyzed for particle size and the following elements: Zn, Cu, Mn, Cr, P, Co, B, V, Be, Sr, Na, Pb, Ni, Ba, Fe, Ca, and Mg. Results indicate that the particle size recovery of both machines is similar when sediment from the brass core and bowl of the Alfa-Laval are combined, and that the recovery for all elements other than Cu, V, B, and Pb are the same when the particle size differences are taken into account. Sediment from the Alfa-Laval brass core is clearly contaminated by Cu, B and is also elevated in V and Pb but not to a significant extent. The sediment recovered from the bowl of the Alfa-Laval is contaminated only with Cu, with a 10 ppm increase over the 52 ppm recovered in the Westphalia sediment. Operating procedures involve the discarding of the brass core sediment and the mixing of the Alfa-Laval bowl sediment with that from the Westphalia. The consequent increase in Cu is estimated at less than 5 ppm or within the confidence level of the analysis. These procedures are recommended to all operators of non modified Alfa-Laval units.     

COSTAS环解调器设计及实践初探

本文详细介绍自行设计的COSTAS环解调器的工作原理,环路参数选择以及实际工作效果。     

Prediction of the dynamic response of a slender marine structure under an irregular ocean wave using the NARX-based quadratic Volterra series

The time series of the dynamic response of a slender marine structure was predicted in approximate sense using a truncated quadratic Volterra series. The wave-structure interaction system was identified using the NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input) technique, and the network parameters were determined through supervised training using prepared datasets. The dataset used for network training was obtained by nonlinear finite element analysis of the slender marine structure under random ocean waves of white noise. The nonlinearities involved in the analysis were both large deformation of the structure under consideration and the quadratic term of the relative velocity between the water particle and structure in the Morison formula. The linear and quadratic frequency response functions of the given system were extracted using the multi-tone harmonic probing method and the time series of the response of the structure was predicted using the quadratic Volterra series. To check the applicability of the method, the response of a slender marine structure under a realistic ocean wave environment with a given significant wave height and modal period was predicted and compared with the nonlinear time domain simulation results. The predicted time series of the response of structure with quadratic Volterra series successfully captured the slowly varying response with reasonably good accuracy. This method can be used to predict the response of the slender offshore structure exposed to a Morison type load without relying on the computationally expensive time domain analysis, especially for screening purposes.     

Results based management in fisheries: Delegating responsibility to resource users

While the notion of results based management has been devoted recent attention in the context of reforming European fisheries management, it remains unclear what it entails. A conceptual model of results based management in fisheries is proposed as a way for public authorities to delegate specific management and documentation responsibilities to resource users. The model comprises three defining features: (1) That authorities define measurable objectives for the utilization of fisheries resources; (2) that resource users are made responsible for achieving these objectives and for (3) providing documentation that allows for an audit of the extent to which they are met. Selected cases are used to illustrate these features. Rationales and prospects of introducing results based management as an alternative in a European fisheries management context are discussed, giving consideration to how it may be pursued under the reformed common fisheries policy.     

National policy and SMEs in technology transfer: the case of Israel

Increasing the rate of climate technology transfer is a critical concern. The international community facilitates the development and deployment of climate technologies for the needs of the South in two primary ways: first, through the use of multilateral frameworks for technology transfer and, second, through in-country capacity building for research, development, and deployment in developing countries. However, scant attention is given to whether national-level frameworks in industrialized countries can support technology transfer. This issue may be of particular relevance to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in developed countries, due to their relative lack of experience in international markets. The barriers that prevent SMEs from developing and exporting more technologies to the South are identified, by using Israel as a case study. Although Israel is an important global source of climate technology innovation, it currently does not engage much with the developing world. Four principle barriers to greater involvement of OECD SMEs in technology transfer for climate mitigation in developing countries are: (1) lack of knowledge of market needs in developing economies, (2) lack of financial mechanisms to support R&D, (3) lack of opportunities for partnership building, and (4) lack of support for demonstration sites in developing countries.