Diagnosing snow accumulation errors in a rain‐snow transitional environment with snow board observations

Diagnosing the source of errors in snow models requires intensive observations, a flexible model framework to test competing hypotheses, and a methodology to systematically test the dominant snow processes. We present a novel process‐based approach to diagnose model errors through an example that focuses on snow accumulation processes (precipitation partitioning, new snow density, and snow compaction). Twelve years of meteorological and snow board measurements were used to identify the main source of model error on each snow accumulation day. Results show that modeled values of new snow density were outside observational uncertainties in 52% of days available for evaluation, while precipitation partitioning and compaction were in error 45% and 16% of the time, respectively. Precipitation partitioning errors mattered more for total winter accumulation during the anomalously warm winter of 2014–2015, when a higher fraction of precipitation fell within the temperature range where partition methods had the largest error. These results demonstrate how isolating individual model processes can identify the primary source(s) of model error, which helps prioritize future research.     

Integration of aquifer geology,groundwater flow and arsenic distribution in deltaic aquifers – A unifying concept

Groundwater arsenic (As) presents a public health risk of great magnitude in densely populated Asian delta regions, most acutely in the Bengal Basin (West Bengal, India and Bangladesh). Research has focused on the sources, mobilisation, and heterogeneity of groundwater As, but a consistent explanation of As distribution from local to basin scale remains elusive. We show for the Bengal Aquifer System that the numerous, discontinuous silt‐clay layers together with surface topography impose a hierarchical pattern of groundwater flow, which constrains As penetration into the aquifer and controls its redistribution towards discharge zones, where it is re‐sequestered to solid phases. This is particularly so for the discrete periods of As release to groundwater in the shallow subsurface associated with sea level high‐stand conditions of Quaternary inter‐glacial periods. We propose a hypothesis concerning groundwater flow ( S ilt‐clay layers I mpose H ierarchical groundwater flow patterns constraining A rsenic progression [SIHA]), which links consensus views on the As source and history of sedimentation in the basin to the variety of spatial and depth distributions of groundwater As reported in the literature. SIHA reconciles apparent inconsistencies between independent, in some cases contrasting, field observations. We infer that lithological and topographic controls on groundwater flow, inherent to SIHA, apply more generally to deltaic aquifers elsewhere. The analysis suggests that groundwater As may persist in the aquifers of Asian deltas over thousands of years, but in certain regions, particularly at deeper levels, As will not exceed low background concentrations unless groundwater flow systems are short‐circuited by excessive pumping.     

Elastic lateral dynamic impedance functions for a rigid cylindrical shell type foundation

Elastic lateral dynamic impedance functions are defined as the ratio of the lateral dynamic force/moment to the corresponding lateral displacement/rotation at the top ending of a foundation at very small strains. Elastic lateral dynamic impedance functions have a defining influence on the natural frequencies of offshore wind turbines supported on cylindrical shell type foundations, such as suction caissons, bucket foundations, and monopiles. This paper considers the coupled horizontal and rocking vibration of a cylindrical shell type foundation embedded in a fully saturated poroelastic seabed in contact with a seawater half‐space. The formulation of the coupled seawater–shell–seabed vibration problem is simplified by treating the shell as a rigid one. The rigid shell vibration problem is approached by the integral equation method using ring‐load Green's functions for a layered seawater‐seabed half‐space. By considering the boundary conditions at the shell–soil interface, the shell vibration problem is reduced to Fredholm integral equations. Through an analysis of the corresponding Cauchy singular equations, the intrinsic singular characteristics of the problem are rendered explicit. With the singularities incorporated into the solution representation, an effective numerical method involving Gauss–Chebyshev method is developed for the governing Fredholm equations. Selected numerical results for the dynamic contact load distributions, displacements of the shell, and lateral dynamic impedance functions are examined for different shell length–radius ratio, poroelastic materials, and frequencies of excitation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamics of Saxothuringian subduction channel/wedge constrained by phase‐equilibria modelling and micro‐fabric analysis

Subduction and exhumation dynamics can be investigated through analysis of metamorphic and deformational evolution of associated high‐grade rocks. The Erzgebirge anticline, which forms at the boundary between the Saxothuringian and Teplá‐Barrandian domains of the Bohemian Massif, provides a useful study area for these processes owing to the occurrence of numerous meta‐basites preserving eclogite facies assemblages, and coesite and diamond bearing quartzofeldspathic lithologies indicating subduction to deep mantle depths. The prograde and retrograde evolution of meta‐basite from the Czech portion of the Erzgebirge anticline has been constrained through a combination of thermodynamic modelling and conventional thermobarometry. Garnet growth zoning indicates that the rocks underwent burial and heating to peak conditions of 2.6 GPa and at least 615 °C. Initial exhumation occurred with concurrent cooling and decompression resulting in the growth of amphibole and zoisite poikiloblasts overgrowing and including the eclogite facies assemblage. The development of clinopyroxene–plagioclase–amphibole symplectites after omphacite and Al‐rich rims on matrix amphibole indicate later heating at the base of the lower crust. Omphacite microstructures, in particular grain size analysis and lattice‐preferred orientations, indicate that the prograde evolution was characterized by a constrictional strain geometry transitioning into plane strain and oblate fabrics during exhumation. The initial constrictional strain pattern is interpreted as being controlled by competing slab pull and crustal buoyancy forces leading to necking of the subducting slab. The transition to plane strain and flattening geometries represents transfer of material from the subducting lithosphere into a subduction channel, break‐off of the dense slab and rebound of the buoyant crustal material.     

Modeling the 2D behavior of dry‐stone retaining walls by a fully discrete element method

The dry‐stone retaining walls (DSRW) have been tipped as a promising solution for sustainable development. However, before recently, their behavior is relatively obscure. In this study, discrete element method (DEM) approach was applied to simulate the plane strain failure of these walls. A commercial DEM package (PFC2D™) was used throughout this study. The authors used a fully discrete approach; thus, both the wall and the backfill were modeled as discrete elements. The methodology for obtaining the micromechanical parameters was discussed in detail; this includes the three mechanical sub‐systems of DSRWs: wall, backfill and interface. The models were loaded progressively until failure, and then the results were compared with the full‐scale experimental results where the walls were loaded, respectively, with hydrostatic load and backfill. Despite its complexity and its intensive calculation time, DEM model can then be used to validate a more simplified approach. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A GLUE‐based uncertainty assessment framework for tritium‐inferred transit time estimations under baseflow conditions

The last decade has seen major technical and scientific improvements in the study of water transfer time through catchments. Nevertheless, it has been argued that most of these developments used conservative tracers that may disregard the oldest component of water transfer, which often has transit times greater than 5 years. Indeed, although the analytical reproducibility of tracers limits the detection of the older flow components associated with the most dampened seasonal fluctuations, this is very rarely taken into account in modelling applications. Tritium is the only environmental tracer at hand to investigate transfer times in the 5‐ to 50‐year range in surface waters, as dissolved gases are not suitable due to the degassing process. Water dating with tritium has often been difficult because of the complex history of its atmospheric concentration, but its current stabilization together with recent analytical improvements open promising perspectives. In this context, the innovative contribution of this study lies in the development of a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation‐based approach for analysing the uncertainties associated with the modelling of transit time due to both parameter identification and tracer analytical precision issues. A coupled resampling procedure allows assessment of the statistical significance of the transfer time differences found in diverse waters. This approach was developed for tritium and the exponential‐piston model but can be implemented for virtually any tracer and model. Stream baseflow, spring and shallow aquifer waters from the Vallcebre research catchments, analysed for tritium in different years with different analytical precisions, were investigated by using this approach and taking into account other sources of uncertainty. The results showed three groups of waters of different mean transit times, with all the stream baseflow and spring waters older than the 5‐year threshold needing tritium. Low sensitivity of the results to the model structure was also demonstrated. Dual solutions were found for the waters sampled in 2013, but these results may be disambiguated when additional analyses will be made in a few years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling and experimental study of coupled exchange of p,p′‐DDE and colloids in a flume simulated stream–streambed system

Stream–subsurface exchange plays a significant role in the fate and transport of contaminants in streams. It has been modelled explicitly by considering fundamental processes such as hydraulic exchange, colloid filtration, and contaminant interactions with streambed sediments and colloids. The models have been successfully applied to simulate the transport of inorganic metals and nutrients. In this study, laboratory experiments were conducted in a recirculating flume to investigate the exchange of a hydrophobic organic contaminant, p,p′‐dichloro‐diphenyl‐dichloroethane (DDE), between a stream and a quartz sand bed. A previously developed process‐based multiphase exchange model was modified by accounting for the p,p′‐DDE kinetic adsorption to and desorption from the bed sediments/colloids and was applied to interpret the experimental results. Model input parameters were obtained by conducting independent small‐scale batch experiments. Results indicate that the immobilization of p,p′‐DDE in the quartz sand bed can occur under representative natural stream conditions. The observed p,p′‐DDE exchange was successfully simulated by the process‐based model. The model sensitivity analysis results show that the exchange of p,p′‐DDE can be sensitive to either the sediment sorption/desorption parameters or colloidal parameters depending on the experimental conditions tested. For the experimental conditions employed here, the effect of colloids on contaminant transport is expected to be minimal, and the stream–subsurface exchange of p,p′‐DDE is dominated by the interaction of p,p′‐DDE with bed sediment. The work presented here contributes to a better mechanistic understanding of the complex transport process that hydrophobic organic contaminants undergo in natural streams and to the development of reliable, predictive models for the assessment of impacted streams. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Towards more systematic perceptual model development: a case study using 3 Luxembourgish catchments

The synthesis of experimental understanding of catchment behaviour and its translation into qualitative perceptual models is an important objective of hydrological sciences. We explore this challenge by examining the cumulative understanding of the hydrology of three experimental catchments and how it evolves through the application of different investigation techniques. The case study considers the Huewelerbach, Weierbach and Wollefsbach headwater catchments of the Attert basin in Luxembourg. Subsurface investigations including bore holes and pits, analysis of soil samples and Electrical Resistivity Tomography measurements are presented and discussed. Streamflow and tracer data are used to gain further insights into the streamflow dynamics of the catchments, using end‐member mixing analysis and hydrograph separation based on dissolved silica and electrical conductivity. We show that the streamflow generating processes in all three catchments are controlled primarily by the subsolum and underlying bedrock. In the Huewelerbach, the permeable sandstone formation supports a stable groundwater component with little seasonality, which reaches the stream through a series of sources at the contact zone with the impermeable marls formation. In the Weierbach, the schist formation is relatively impermeable and supports a ‘fill and spill’‐type of flow mechanism; during wet conditions, it produces a delayed response dominated by pre‐event water. In the Wollefsbach, the impermeable marls formation is responsible for a saturation‐excess runoff generating process, producing a fast and highly seasonal response dominated by event water. The distinct streamflow generating processes of the three catchments are represented qualitatively using perceptual models. The perceptual models are in turn translated into quantitative conceptual models, which simulate the hydrological processes using networks of connected reservoirs and transfer functions. More generally, the paper illustrates the evolution of perceptual models based on experimental fieldwork data, the translation of perceptual models into conceptual models and the value of different types of data for processes understanding and model representation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.