Seismic rays in an ellipsoidal earth model: theoretical analysis and estimation of deviations due to the ellipticity

Summary. A first-order form of the Euler's equations for rays in an ellipsoidal model of the Earth is obtained. The conditions affecting the velocity law for a monotonic increase, with respect to the arc length, in the angular distance to the epicentre, and in the angle of incidence, are the same in the ellipsoidal and spherical models. It is therefore possible to trace rays and to compute travel times directly in an ellipsoidal earth as in the spherical model. Thus comparison with the rays of the same coordinates in a spherical earth provides an estimate of the various deviations of these rays due to the Earth's flattening, and the corresponding travel-time differences, for mantle P -waves and for shallow earthquakes. All these deviations are functions both of the latitude and of the epicentral distance. The difference in the distance to the Earth's centre at points with the same geocentric latitude on rays in the ellipsoidal and in the spherical model may reach several kilometres. Directly related to the deformation of the isovelocity surfaces, this difference is the only cause of significant perturbation in travel times. Other differences, such as that corresponding to the ray torsion, are of the first order in ellipticity, and may exceed 1 km. They induce only small differences in travel time, less than 0.01s. Thus, we show that the ellipticity correction obtained by Jeffreys (1935) and Bullen (1937) by a perturbational method can be recovered by a direct evaluation of the travel times in an ellipsoidal model of the Earth. Moreover, as stated by Dziewonski & Gilbert (1976), we verify the non-dependence of this correction on the choice of the velocity law.     

可移动中继节点在传感器网络中的节能应用

介绍了一种新颖的静态传感器网络实现方法，它利用可移动的中继节点来收集静态传感器网络的数据，有效的节约各传感器节点的能源，延长整个传感器网络的有效工作时间。也可以对该方法进行适当的改进，应用到某些实时性要求较高的场合中去。然后介绍了应用该原理实现的一个通讯协议。     

首都圈地区现今断层活动的数学模拟及地震危险性讨论

以首都圈地区现今活动断层上近２０年的位移测量资料为依据，用二维线弹性有限元对该区断层的活动特征进行了拟合，并结合有关资料讨论了该区的地震危险性。结果表明：１９７７－１９８６年间该区主压应力优势方位与华北较一致，约为Ｎ４５°－８０°Ｅ；１９８６－１９９０年其主压应力方向向北偏转，约为Ｎ５°－６０°Ｅ；１９９０年至现在其主压应力又向东偏转，角度大于第一阶段，约为Ｎ８０°－９５°Ｅ。该区的张家口－延庆一带近期有发生中强震的可能；丰镇－阳高－大同地区和凉城－古营盘地区应力较高，也应引起注意。     

Predicting ground-motion variations at the Turkey-flat test site,California

Results of a single group participating in an international experiment are analyzed. The experiment served to verify computational predictions of the ground-motion variations due to near-surface geological effects at a site established for that purpose by the California Department of Conservation. Based on an acceleration record at a rock location, and geotechnical model of medium, records at the other locations of a nearby sedimentary deposit were predicted. A 2-D finite-difference sensitivity analysis suggested that the lateral wave-propagation effects are negligibly small, and locally 1-D computations are sufficient for the present site. Those computations are compared with observations not available to the authors during the blind prediction. Peak accelerations, peak velocities and RMS accelerations were predicted with errors less than 159%, 114% and 62%, respectively. Maxima of the response spectra were fitted within a factor of 2. The predicted and observed Husid's plots (i.e., the normalized cumulative plots of the acceleration squared) have the correlation coefficients 0.98. The detected misfits do not show any simple relation to the instrument location, component, frequency, or time.     

Morphological analysis of the drainage system in the Eastern Alps

We study the morphology of the major rivers draining the Eastern Alps to test whether the active tectonics of this part of the orogen is reflected in the shape of channel profiles of the river network. In our approach we compare channel profiles measured from digital elevation models with numerically modelled channel profiles using a stream power approach. It is shown that regions of high stream power coincide largely with regions of highest topography and largest uplift rates, while the forelands and the Pannonian Basin are characterised by a significantly lower stream power. From stream power modelling we conclude that there is young uplift at the very east of the Eastern Alps, in the Bohemian Massif and in the Pohorje Range. The impact of the Pleistocene glaciations is explored by comparing properties of rivers that drain in proximal and distal positions relative to the ice sheet during the last glacial maximum. Our analysis shows that most knick points, wind gaps and other non-equilibrium features of catchments covered by ice during the last glaciations (Salzach, Enns) can be correlated with glacial processes. In contrast the ice free catchments of the Mur and Drava are characterized by channels in morphological equilibrium at the first approximation and are showing only weak evidence of the strong tectonic activity within these catchments. Finally, the channel profiles of the Adige and the divide between the upper Rhine and Danube catchments differ significantly from the other catchments. We relate this to the fact that the Adige and the Rhine respond to different base levels from the remainder of the Eastern Alps: The Adige may preserve a record from the Messininan base level change and the Rhine is subject to the base level lowering in the Rhine Graben.     

Structural characterization of deep-water deposits in a foreland basin, Silla Syncline (Chilean Patagonia), with applications to depositional processes

Based on our detailed structural characterization, we examine possible relationships between thrust faults and strike-slip faults and thrust-cored folds and depositional units in the Silla Syncline, a 4 km wide fold composed of fine-grained mudstone, coarse sandstone and conglomerate deposits of the Cerro Toro Formation in the Magallanes foreland basin, Chilean Patagonia. The syncline is bounded on its western flank by an asymmetric anticline and on its eastern flank by a broad zone of thrust faults and associated folds, which are oriented sub-parallel to the syncline axis. Deposition of the coarse-grained units of the Silla Syncline appears to have taken place in this structurally defined trough controlled primarily by thrust fault related growth structures flanking the syncline.The syncline and surrounding area have also been deformed by two sets of strike-slip faults, one right-lateral and one left-lateral. The strike-slip and thrust faulting operated contemporaneously for much of their active periods, although it appears that thrust faulting, confined within the fine-grained units, initiated slightly earlier than strike-slip faulting. In addition, younger igneous intrusions at high angle to bedding generally localize along the strike-slip faults. The cross-cutting relationships among the intrusions, strike-slip faults, and flexural slip faults show that all these structures were active during the same period, which extends beyond mid-Miocene.These conclusions support the premise that structures in deep-water sediments are important for understanding not only the deformation of a foreland basin, but also its depositional architecture.     

Comments on ‘A comparative study of ANN and neuro-fuzzy for the prediction of dynamic constant of rockmass’

Singh et al (2005) examined the potential of the ANN and neuro-fuzzy systems application for the prediction of dynamic constant of rockmass. However, the model proposed by them has some drawbacks according to fuzzy logic principles. This discussion will focus on the main fuzzy logic principles which authors and potential readers should take into consideration.     

Neural network prediction of nitrate in groundwater of Harran Plain, Turkey

Monitoring groundwater quality by cost-effective techniques is important as the aquifers are vulnerable to contamination from the uncontrolled discharge of sewage, agricultural and industrial activities. Faulty planning and mismanagement of irrigation schemes are the principle reasons of groundwater quality deterioration. This study presents an artificial neural network (ANN) model predicting concentration of nitrate, the most common pollutant in shallow aquifers, in groundwater of Harran Plain. The samples from 24 observation wells were monthly analysed for 1 year. Nitrate was found in almost all groundwater samples to be significantly above the maximum allowable concentration of 50 mg/L, probably due to the excessive use of artificial fertilizers in intensive agricultural activities. Easily measurable parameters such as temperature, electrical conductivity, groundwater level and pH were used as input parameters in the ANN-based nitrate prediction. The best back-propagation (BP) algorithm and neuron numbers were determined for optimization of the model architecture. The Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm was selected as the best of 12 BP algorithms and optimal neuron number was determined as 25. The model tracked the experimental data very closely (R = 0.93). Hence, it is possible to manage groundwater resources in a more cost-effective and easier way with the proposed model application.     

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Numerical estimation of REV and permeability tensor for fractured rock masses by composite element method

The Monte Carlo method is used to generate parent stochastic discrete fracture network, from which a series of fractured rock samples of different sizes and orientations are extracted. The fracture network combined with a regular grid forms composite element mesh of the fractured rock sample, in which each composite element is composed of sub‐elements incised by fracture segments. The composite element method (CEM) for the seepage is implemented to obtain the nodal hydraulic potential as well as the seepage flow rates through the fractured rock samples. The application of CEM enables a large quantity of stochastic tests for the fractured rock samples because the pre‐process is facilitated greatly. By changing the sizes and orientations of the samples, the analysis of the seepage characteristics is realized to evaluate the variation of the permeability components, the existence of the permeability tensor and the representative element volume. The feasibility and effectiveness are illustrated in a numerical example. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.